| IVOD_ID |
157156 |
| IVOD_URL |
https://ivod.ly.gov.tw/Play/Clip/1M/157156 |
| 日期 |
2024-11-20 |
| 會議資料.會議代碼 |
委員會-11-2-35-15 |
| 會議資料.會議代碼:str |
第11屆第2會期外交及國防委員會第15次全體委員會議 |
| 會議資料.屆 |
11 |
| 會議資料.會期 |
2 |
| 會議資料.會次 |
15 |
| 會議資料.種類 |
委員會 |
| 會議資料.委員會代碼[0] |
35 |
| 會議資料.委員會代碼:str[0] |
外交及國防委員會 |
| 會議資料.標題 |
第11屆第2會期外交及國防委員會第15次全體委員會議 |
| 影片種類 |
Clip |
| 開始時間 |
2024-11-20T11:34:19+08:00 |
| 結束時間 |
2024-11-20T11:44:51+08:00 |
| 影片長度 |
00:10:32 |
| 支援功能[0] |
ai-transcript |
| 支援功能[1] |
gazette |
| video_url |
https://ivod-lyvod.cdn.hinet.net/vod_1/_definst_/mp4:1MClips/be8492a9d81d8eabb056f8e8dbc870b9e1735c777af598f1aee312d9b2381ac340a1818b981201f85ea18f28b6918d91.mp4/playlist.m3u8 |
| 委員名稱 |
賴士葆 |
| 委員發言時間 |
11:34:19 - 11:44:51 |
| 會議時間 |
2024-11-20T09:00:00+08:00 |
| 會議名稱 |
立法院第11屆第2會期外交及國防委員會第15次全體委員會議（事由：邀請外交部部長、國家發展委員會、經濟部報告「美國總統大選後，對於推動台美貿易及科技建立合作架構之影響」，並備質詢。） |
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謝謝主席有請兩位長官好嗎外交部的田次長經濟部的陳次長兩位長官一起請田次長和陳次長首先先請教陳次長台美現在我們的貿易順差多少 |
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今年大概五百多億五百多億原來你們公布有八百億五百多億那現在大家都在擔心的關心的川普上台以後關稅全球關稅勢必提升這句話對吧他在競選的時候是這樣講是不是一定提升提升多少不知道 |
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所以我們的貿易順差會減少嗎?你們評估報沒有?中共敏感信不信沒有?如果對我們的電子產品全部恢復課10%有影響嗎? |
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可是你不要忘了喔大陸去美國的前10名6名是台商喔台商影響喔 |
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120.267 |
| transcript.whisperx[4].text |
所以,你的意思是美國關稅課越高,我們越好,轉單效果,是這樣子嗎?不是不是,報告委員,我剛剛不是這個意思。我的意思是說,美國的關稅我們要非常看他怎麼實際上執行來做,做仔密的評估。那就問你了,美國關稅真的,他一定,一定增加嘛,對不對?市長也對嘛,市長也這樣子,挺市長這樣認為嘛。 |
| transcript.whisperx[5].start |
128.654 |
| transcript.whisperx[5].end |
134.458 |
| transcript.whisperx[5].text |
目前的跡象看起來他不會食言,他講的競選,但增加多少我們先找看增加多少不知道,填市場有沒有感覺或者你的guts feeling,起碼5%以上會不會,接近10%,可能不到10% |
| transcript.whisperx[6].start |
147.851 |
| transcript.whisperx[6].end |
166.253 |
| transcript.whisperx[6].text |
當然我們也希望這個稅的增加不要傷害到產業的結構跟這個貿易的往來但是這個可能目前我們沒有辦法去做決定請教陳次長他關稅提高對我們是利多還是利空 |
| transcript.whisperx[7].start |
168.697 |
| transcript.whisperx[7].end |
181.281 |
| transcript.whisperx[7].text |
整體來講美國提高關稅當然是對全世界的貿易都比較不好啦我們並不支持這樣的做法我們希望維持自由貿易你這個講話跟國部長不一樣喔國部長我霸氣了國資委你們老闆啊本事我說沒差啦 |
| transcript.whisperx[8].start |
186.141 |
| transcript.whisperx[8].end |
188.401 |
| transcript.whisperx[8].text |
所以我剛剛跟委員報告是說因為我們認為美國的需求還是存在所以反而... 田市長你講一下吧我想田市長這麼有經驗的都沒有影響嗎?結果所有的所有的相關的經濟方面的專家都講 |
| transcript.whisperx[9].start |
213.803 |
| transcript.whisperx[9].end |
216.724 |
| transcript.whisperx[9].text |
對亞洲來講重創臺灣是被重創的田市長這句話對吧我前後我要先看一下那篇報告你剛剛寫的好幾份報告包括經濟學人這麼有名的對不對包括這個金周刊包括其他的都這樣子分析啊亞洲受害最深你看喔他是起來 |
| transcript.whisperx[10].start |
240.922 |
| transcript.whisperx[10].end |
250.585 |
| transcript.whisperx[10].text |
全球GDP會受影響美國同盤會增加1.8%美國GDP會降1%它都是建構在美國大幅提高關稅然後大陸的GDP會降1%左右大概0.7到1.6最大的輸家墨西哥、中國大陸跟歐盟這句話請問田市長對嗎? |
| transcript.whisperx[11].start |
270.287 |
| transcript.whisperx[11].end |
295.538 |
| transcript.whisperx[11].text |
經濟學人講的報委員這些問題很難在這裡就跟您報告是或不是其實有危機也有轉機在某種程度來說尤其對台灣來講台灣這些高科技可能在這一批關稅上會有某種程度的轉機市長你同意川普講的 |
| transcript.whisperx[12].start |
296.838 |
| transcript.whisperx[12].end |
297.639 |
| transcript.whisperx[12].text |
這才是生意人啊!都跟你賺得不行啊!我這樣講我對吧? |
| transcript.whisperx[13].start |
316.727 |
| transcript.whisperx[13].end |
327.333 |
| transcript.whisperx[13].text |
這個大概是一面的做法一個國家要偉大的話他還需要其他的同盟國家一起協力對啊他說你賺我這麼多錢生力人來講生力人就是你不能佔我便宜啊你不能賺我這麼多錢啊所以你要給我買啊買能源啊買武器啊平民給我買啊這大家可以預估的吧這樣推論對嗎請問是啊對嗎 田市長 |
| transcript.whisperx[14].start |
347.293 |
| transcript.whisperx[14].end |
355.835 |
| transcript.whisperx[14].text |
至於能源問題,剛才我想陳次長已經說明了。那麼武器方面呢,我想可能由國防部來做比較...來,我請教陳次長啊,我們現在天然氣最大的進口國是哪個國家?應該是卡達。卡達,過去我們跟俄羅斯買很多,現在還沒跟俄羅斯買。 |
| transcript.whisperx[15].start |
367.389 |
| transcript.whisperx[15].end |
394.984 |
| transcript.whisperx[15].text |
報告委員,跟俄羅斯的進口是因為我們在日本這個Kuya島這邊有一個投資啊那個是一個三國的企業的合資所以是因為合資的關係進口過來並不是我們直接跟俄羅斯買的我知道,但所以實際上還是在有跟俄羅斯買石油嘛講整包,講了半天說要制裁人家結果都沒有啊因為現實的問題我們對俄羅斯是出口管制我們沒有制裁的法律啦 |
| transcript.whisperx[16].start |
395.615 |
| transcript.whisperx[16].end |
407.839 |
| transcript.whisperx[16].text |
王美華當部長接受我的質詢講那時候剛二五戰爭沒多久但是三個月內不可能一滴這個天然氣從俄羅斯來我們是因為我們投資方的關係這是一個合約的問題啊好我請教田次長看第二個page川普上任以後CPTPP對我們來講更加辛苦困難吧是不是 |
| transcript.whisperx[17].start |
423.102 |
| transcript.whisperx[17].end |
445.573 |
| transcript.whisperx[17].text |
以他過去沒有參加巴黎協定的這個過去的記錄來說他可能對氣候變遷他個人認為是一個這個議題對他來講並不是他最好的理解所以我講的都對嘛他會繼續的不理全球氣候變遷行動然後CPTPP我們更加沒有希望 |
| transcript.whisperx[18].start |
446.173 |
| transcript.whisperx[18].end |
450.817 |
| transcript.whisperx[18].text |
抱歉,你剛講我是氣候變遷,CPTPP兩個都有兩個都有CPTPP美國一開始他就退出來才會變CPTPP我知道,所以我們所以你們外交部都畫這個福隆老百姓說吃美牛吃美豬可以加入CPTPP你們次長講的那個帥哥叫什麼名字來著,姓李的不知道掉到哪裡去了李淳 |
| transcript.whisperx[19].start |
473.977 |
| transcript.whisperx[19].end |
477.7 |
| transcript.whisperx[19].text |
李淳講的公開講公投的時候說我們吃美豬可以加入CPTPP你Google一下青菜公共咧都這樣子服弄大家結果現在吃了也沒加入啊因為說美國雖然他不是CPTPP成年國他會幫助我們對不對他是美國爸爸會幫助我們是不是結果沒有啊更加沒有希望啊 |
| transcript.whisperx[20].start |
499.5 |
| transcript.whisperx[20].end |
502.886 |
| transcript.whisperx[20].text |
你現在來看的話這個CPTPP都知道共識絕啊市長 你要不要講一點話對CPTPP講一下讓我們有點希望好嗎 |
| transcript.whisperx[21].start |
511.963 |
| transcript.whisperx[21].end |
519.886 |
| transcript.whisperx[21].text |
我覺得你剛剛提的共識決其實共識決只是三個之一啦它奧克蘭這個三個原則嘛高標準能夠履行它貿易的承諾第三是共識決那麼台灣其實這三項都已經充分的達到了你知道進度嗎跟我們同一時間申請的英國已經加入了台灣到現在連工作小組都沒有這就是現況 |
| transcript.whisperx[22].start |
542.076 |
| transcript.whisperx[22].end |
544.639 |
| transcript.whisperx[22].text |
我們到外交單位經貿談判處還不是普通的捧趟啊英國跟我們一起加入了我們到現在連工作小組都沒有你都不理你啊最後一個小問題我問完你就走 |
| transcript.whisperx[23].start |
556.107 |
| transcript.whisperx[23].end |
572.406 |
| transcript.whisperx[23].text |
川普上來是不是會興起全世界保護主義各國的興起?你課我關稅,我也課你關稅啊!大陸難道就沒有籌碼嗎?你課他關稅幾十趴,大陸課你美國商品的關稅,大家都來課關稅,有嗎?有可能嗎?有沒有可能是這樣? |
| transcript.whisperx[24].start |
578.556 |
| transcript.whisperx[24].end |
606.295 |
| transcript.whisperx[24].text |
這個我想要等他真正開始以後才會形成這種風氣那麼現在他還沒有就任當然他說了很多東西他履行他競選的諾言那麼各國也都在準備中因為他孤立主義所謂的爆章砸他孤立主義所以各國可能也會漸漸不要問喔大家現在只有談關稅喔還有一個會員律喔 |
| transcript.whisperx[25].start |
607.844 |
| transcript.whisperx[25].end |
609.644 |
| transcript.whisperx[25].text |
這件事情在川普政策來看是彼此矛盾的,我們也是要密切來觀察他怎麼執行。 |
| gazette.lineno |
453 |
| gazette.blocks[0][0] |
賴委員士葆：（11時34分）謝謝主席，有請兩位長官好嗎？外交部的田次長、經濟部的陳次長，兩位長官一起。 |
| gazette.blocks[1][0] |
主席：請田次長和陳次長。 |
| gazette.blocks[2][0] |
賴委員士葆：首先先請教陳次長。 |
| gazette.blocks[3][0] |
陳次長正祺：是，委員好。 |
| gazette.blocks[4][0] |
賴委員士葆：臺美現在我們的貿易順差多少？ |
| gazette.blocks[5][0] |
陳次長正祺：今年大概五百多億美元。 |
| gazette.blocks[6][0] |
賴委員士葆：五百多億，原來你們公布有800億，結果是五百多億。現在大家都在擔心的、關心的，就是川普上臺以後，全球關稅勢必提升，這一句話對吧？ |
| gazette.blocks[7][0] |
陳次長正祺：他在競選的時候是這樣講。 |
| gazette.blocks[8][0] |
賴委員士葆：是不是一定提升，只是提升多少不知道？ |
| gazette.blocks[9][0] |
陳次長正祺：對，這個要觀察。 |
| gazette.blocks[10][0] |
賴委員士葆：這樣對吧？ |
| gazette.blocks[11][0] |
陳次長正祺：對。 |
| gazette.blocks[12][0] |
賴委員士葆：所以我們的貿易順差會減少嗎？你們評估過沒有？做過敏感性分析沒有？ |
| gazette.blocks[13][0] |
陳次長正祺：這個要看他之後怎麼落實他的競選政見，我們才能夠…… |
| gazette.blocks[14][0] |
賴委員士葆：如果對我們的電子產品全部恢復課10%，有影響嗎？ |
| gazette.blocks[15][0] |
陳次長正祺：如果照他競選的時候所講的，對全世界都課徵10%到20%的關稅，而且對中國的產品課徵60%的關稅，那樣的話，我們對美的出口在電子產品部分有可能會增加，因為美國有那樣的需求，那麼全世界…… |
| gazette.blocks[16][0] |
賴委員士葆：可是你不要忘了，大陸去美國的前10名，有6名是臺商哦！臺商受影響哦！ |
| gazette.blocks[17][0] |
陳次長正祺：是。 |
| gazette.blocks[18][0] |
賴委員士葆：對吧？ |
| gazette.blocks[19][0] |
陳次長正祺：是。 |
| gazette.blocks[20][0] |
賴委員士葆：所以你的意思是美國課關稅課越高，對我們越好，有轉單效果，是這樣子嗎？ |
| gazette.blocks[21][0] |
陳次長正祺：不是、不是、不是，報告委員，我剛剛不是這個意思，我的意思是說，美國的關稅我們要看它實際上怎麼執行來做縝密的評估，因為對不同產業…… |
| gazette.blocks[22][0] |
賴委員士葆：好，那就問你了，美國關稅它一定增加嘛！對不對？次長，對吧？田次長也這樣認為吧？是不是？ |
| gazette.blocks[23][0] |
田次長中光：目前的跡象看起來，他不會食言，他講的競選…… |
| gazette.blocks[24][0] |
賴委員士葆：一定增加嘛！ |
| gazette.blocks[25][0] |
田次長中光：但是多少我們現在還不敢說。 |
| gazette.blocks[26][0] |
賴委員士葆：增加多少不知道，田次長有沒有感覺，或者你的gut feeling，起碼5%以上，會不會？接近10%，可能不到10%。 |
| gazette.blocks[27][0] |
田次長中光：當然我們也希望這個稅的增加不要傷害到產業的結構跟貿易的往來，但是目前我們可能沒有辦法去做決定。 |
| gazette.blocks[28][0] |
賴委員士葆：來，請教陳次長，它關稅提高對我們是利多還是利空？ |
| gazette.blocks[29][0] |
陳次長正祺：整體來講，美國提高關稅當然是對全世界的貿易都比較不好，我們並不支持這樣的做法，我們希望維持自由貿易的情況。 |
| gazette.blocks[30][0] |
賴委員士葆：你這樣的講法跟郭部長不一樣哦！郭部長，哇！多麼霸氣，郭智輝是你老闆，郭部長說沒差啦！因為可以吸收，這個buyer可以吸收啊！他以為他是seller's market，這個東西…… |
| gazette.blocks[31][0] |
陳次長正祺：所以我剛剛跟委員報告，因為我們認為美國的需求還是存在，所以反而在出口方面會增加。 |
| gazette.blocks[32][0] |
賴委員士葆：田次長，你講一下吧！我想田次長這麼有經驗，都沒有影響嗎？打死也沒人信！結果所有經濟方面的專家都講，對亞洲來講，重創！臺灣是被重創的，田次長，這一句話對吧？ |
| gazette.blocks[33][0] |
田次長中光：我要先看一下那篇報告的前後文，你剛剛講的…… |
| gazette.blocks[34][0] |
賴委員士葆：好幾份報告，包括經濟學人這麼有名的，對不對？包括今周刊，包括其他的，都這樣子分析啊！亞洲受害最深，你看哦！它就講全球GDP會受影響，美國通膨會增加1.8%，美國GDP會降1%，它都是建構在美國大幅提高關稅，然後大陸的GDP會降1%左右，大概0.7%到1.6%，最大的輸家是墨西哥、中國大陸及歐盟，這一句話，請問田次長，對嗎？這個是經濟學人講的。 |
| gazette.blocks[35][0] |
田次長中光：這些問題很難在這裡就跟您報告是或不是…… |
| gazette.blocks[36][0] |
賴委員士葆：Yes or no？ |
| gazette.blocks[37][0] |
田次長中光：其實有危機也有轉機，在某種程度來說，尤其對臺灣來講，臺灣這些高科技可能在這一批關稅上會有某種程度的轉機。 |
| gazette.blocks[38][0] |
賴委員士葆：田次長，你同意川普講的「MAGA」，要讓美國再次偉大，就是以美國為主體當作生意，所以你賺它多少錢，它要把你賺回來啊！我一開始問你說我們賺到500億美金，它想辦法把你賺回來啊！這才是生意人，都給你賺了不行啊！我這樣講法對吧？ |
| gazette.blocks[39][0] |
田次長中光：這個大概是一面的做法，一個國家要偉大的話，它還需要其他的同盟國家一起協力。 |
| gazette.blocks[40][0] |
賴委員士葆：對啊！它說你賺我這麼多錢，對生意人來講，生意人就是你不能占我便宜，你不能賺我這麼多錢，所以你要給我買啊！買能源啊！買武器啊！要拚命給我買啊！這個是大家可以預估的吧！這樣推論對嗎？請問次長，對嗎？田次長。 |
| gazette.blocks[41][0] |
田次長中光：至於能源問題，我想剛才陳次長已經說明了，那麼武器方面，可能由國防部來做比較…… |
| gazette.blocks[42][0] |
賴委員士葆：來，我請教陳次長，我們現在天然氣最大的進口國是哪個國家？ |
| gazette.blocks[43][0] |
陳次長正祺：應該是卡達。 |
| gazette.blocks[44][0] |
賴委員士葆：卡達，過去我們跟俄羅斯買很多哦！現在還有沒有向俄羅斯買？ |
| gazette.blocks[45][0] |
陳次長正祺：跟俄羅斯的進口是因為我們在日本、庫頁島這邊有一個投資，那是一個三國企業的合資，所以是因為合資的關係進口過來，並不是我們直接向俄羅斯買。 |
| gazette.blocks[46][0] |
賴委員士葆：我知道，所以實際上還是有跟俄羅斯買石油嘛！講老半天說要制裁人家，結果都沒有啊！因為現實的問題。 |
| gazette.blocks[47][0] |
陳次長正祺：我們並沒有制裁，我們對俄羅斯是出口管制，我們沒有制裁的法律啦！ |
| gazette.blocks[48][0] |
賴委員士葆：王美花當部長時在接受我質詢的時候就有講，那時候剛發生俄烏戰爭沒多久，他說3個月內不可能有一滴天然氣從俄羅斯來，結果繼續買啊！ |
| gazette.blocks[49][0] |
陳次長正祺：不，我們因為是投資方的關係，這是一個合約的問題。 |
| gazette.blocks[50][0] |
賴委員士葆：好，我請教田次長，看第2個page，川普上任以後，CPTPP對我們來講，更加辛苦困難吧！是不是？ |
| gazette.blocks[51][0] |
田次長中光：以他過去沒有參加巴黎協定的紀錄來說，他可能對氣候變遷，他個人認為這個議題對他來講並不是最重要的議題。 |
| gazette.blocks[52][0] |
賴委員士葆：所以我講的都對嘛！他會繼續不理全球氣候變遷行動，然後CPTPP我們更加沒有希望，是不是？ |
| gazette.blocks[53][0] |
田次長中光：抱歉，您剛剛講的，我是說氣候變遷，至於CPTPP…… |
| gazette.blocks[54][0] |
賴委員士葆：兩個都有，兩個都有。 |
| gazette.blocks[55][0] |
田次長中光：CPTPP，美國一開始它就退出了，才會變CPTPP，本來是TPP。 |
| gazette.blocks[56][0] |
賴委員士葆：我知道，所以你們外交部的話都是糊弄老百姓啊！說吃美牛、吃美豬可以加入CPTPP，你們次長講的，那個帥哥叫什麼名字來著？姓李的，不知道調到哪裡去了，這個是李淳講的，公開講，在公投的時候說我們吃美豬可以加入CPTPP，你Google一下，隨便說說，都這樣子糊弄大家，結果現在吃了也沒加入啊！美國雖然不是CPTPP成員國，但它會幫助我們，對不對？它是美國爸爸，會幫助我們，是不是？結果沒有啊！更加沒有希望啊！你現在來看的話，大家都知道CPTPP是共識決啊！次長，你要不要講一點話？對CPTPP講一下，讓我們有一點希望好嗎？ |
| gazette.blocks[57][0] |
田次長中光：委員，你剛剛提的共識決，其實共識決只是三個之一，它有奧克蘭的三個原則嘛！第一，高標準；第二，能夠履行它貿易的承諾；第三是共識決。那麼臺灣其實這三項都已經充分地達到了，然後再達…… |
| gazette.blocks[58][0] |
賴委員士葆：你知道進度嗎？跟我們同一時間申請的英國已經加入了，臺灣到現在連工作小組都沒有，這就是現況！我們的外交單位經貿談判處還不是普通的「飯桶」，英國跟我們一起申請，它加入了，我們到現在連工作小組都沒有，理都不理你啊！ |
| gazette.blocks[58][1] |
最後一個小問題，我問完了就走。川普上來是不是會興起全世界保護主義，各國都興起？你課我關稅，我也課你關稅啊！大陸難道都沒有籌碼嗎？你課它關稅幾十%，大陸課你美國商品的關稅，大家都來課關稅，有可能嗎？有沒有可能？次長，簡短回答。 |
| gazette.blocks[59][0] |
田次長中光：我想要等他真正開始以後才會形成這種風氣，現在他還沒有就任，當然他說了很多東西，他要履行他競選的諾言，那麼各國也都在準備中。因為他是孤立主義，報章雜誌說他是孤立主義，所以各國可能也會漸漸形成一個…… |
| gazette.blocks[60][0] |
賴委員士葆：不要忘了，大家現在只有談關稅，還有一個匯率哦！還有一個匯率哦！現在美元獨強，為了他的出口，他會想辦法讓美元對其它的幣值貶哦！陳次長同意吧？ |
| gazette.blocks[61][0] |
陳次長正祺：這件事情在川普政策來看是彼此矛盾的，我們也是要密切來觀察他怎麼執行。 |
| gazette.blocks[62][0] |
賴委員士葆：好吧！看起來你們都毫無準備，謝謝。 |
| gazette.blocks[63][0] |
主席：謝謝賴士葆委員，次長請回。 |
| gazette.blocks[63][1] |
接下來請洪孟楷委員上臺質詢。 |
| gazette.agenda.page_end |
322 |
| gazette.agenda.meet_id |
委員會-11-2-35-15 |
| gazette.agenda.speakers[0] |
林憶君 |
| gazette.agenda.speakers[1] |
沈伯洋 |
| gazette.agenda.speakers[2] |
羅美玲 |
| gazette.agenda.speakers[3] |
黃仁 |
| gazette.agenda.speakers[4] |
徐巧芯 |
| gazette.agenda.speakers[5] |
林楚茵 |
| gazette.agenda.speakers[6] |
陳冠廷 |
| gazette.agenda.speakers[7] |
陳永康 |
| gazette.agenda.speakers[8] |
馬文君 |
| gazette.agenda.speakers[9] |
王鴻薇 |
| gazette.agenda.speakers[10] |
賴士葆 |
| gazette.agenda.speakers[11] |
洪孟楷 |
| gazette.agenda.speakers[12] |
楊瓊瓔 |
| gazette.agenda.speakers[13] |
葉元之 |
| gazette.agenda.speakers[14] |
王定宇 |
| gazette.agenda.speakers[15] |
洪申翰 |
| gazette.agenda.speakers[16] |
邱志偉 |
| gazette.agenda.page_start |
273 |
| gazette.agenda.meetingDate[0] |
2024-11-20 |
| gazette.agenda.gazette_id |
11310101 |
| gazette.agenda.agenda_lcidc_ids[0] |
11310101_00007 |
| gazette.agenda.meet_name |
立法院第11屆第2會期外交及國防委員會第15次全體委員會議紀錄 |
| gazette.agenda.content |
邀請外交部部長、國家發展委員會、經濟部報告「美國總統大選後，對於推動台美貿易及科技建
立合作架構之影響」，並備質詢 |
| gazette.agenda.agenda_id |
11310101_00006 |