| IVOD_ID |
168543 |
| IVOD_URL |
https://ivod.ly.gov.tw/Play/Clip/1M/168543 |
| 日期 |
2026-04-15 |
| 會議資料.會議代碼 |
委員會-11-5-35-10 |
| 會議資料.會議代碼:str |
第11屆第5會期外交及國防委員會第10次全體委員會議 |
| 會議資料.屆 |
11 |
| 會議資料.會期 |
5 |
| 會議資料.會次 |
10 |
| 會議資料.種類 |
委員會 |
| 會議資料.委員會代碼[0] |
35 |
| 會議資料.委員會代碼:str[0] |
外交及國防委員會 |
| 會議資料.標題 |
第11屆第5會期外交及國防委員會第10次全體委員會議 |
| 影片種類 |
Clip |
| 開始時間 |
2026-04-15T10:13:57+08:00 |
| 結束時間 |
2026-04-15T10:28:03+08:00 |
| 影片長度 |
00:14:06 |
| 支援功能[0] |
ai-transcript |
| video_url |
https://ivod-lyvod.cdn.hinet.net/vod_1/_definst_/mp4:1MClips/3ec77822e2e6eae3a6c84db34b5dc7b961f404ecbec9cddc25bca6d85ad377ffe917a46a4178bfcd5ea18f28b6918d91.mp4/playlist.m3u8 |
| 委員名稱 |
王定宇 |
| 委員發言時間 |
10:13:57 - 10:28:03 |
| 會議時間 |
2026-04-15T09:00:00+08:00 |
| 會議名稱 |
立法院第11屆第5會期外交及國防委員會第10次全體委員會議（事由：邀請外交部部長林佳龍、經濟部報告「美伊戰爭情勢發展對亞太戰略局勢及經濟安全之影響」，併請國家發展委員會列席，並備質詢。） |
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好謝謝主席請兩位兩位次長跟主秘請陳次長還有經濟部組莊主秘 |
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40.295 |
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兩位好我先就我們今天的主題有關伊朗的戰爭對我們國家的大概能源經濟都有影響從塑膠袋到我們最近看到鋪馬路的AC薄油到油那美國的油價好像漲了一倍到兩倍那台灣因為中油的犧牲奉獻吸收所以油價還算控穩那油價控穩其實不是好到加油的人而已 |
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它是物價之母它會影響到所有像以前電價為什麼要補貼台電當然在野黨不贊成台電的電價不是用電的人在用而已台電會影響到麵包啊烤這個石化很多東西會用到它之後所以把它價格控穩它會影響所有的物價所以它是物價之母 |
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| transcript.whisperx[3].text |
那我今天要問兩位的是第一個我請教經濟部我國有沒有從伊朗購買石油或天然氣包圍沒有因為伊朗的石油大概佔全球供應量的9%到12%但它80%賣到亞洲那它的天然氣大概佔全世界的17% |
| transcript.whisperx[4].start |
87.89 |
| transcript.whisperx[4].end |
102.849 |
| transcript.whisperx[4].text |
好 那這個是伊朗的部分那赫姆茲海峽那個海峽出口它影響到的國家有伊朗 伊拉克 沙烏地 阿拉伯阿拉伯 聯合大公國 巴林 卡達等等這些國家的油跟天然氣我們台灣有沒有採購 |
| transcript.whisperx[5].start |
104.486 |
| transcript.whisperx[5].end |
132.508 |
| transcript.whisperx[5].text |
呃 有 我們經過荷姆斯海峽的那個油漆大約佔百分之三十四左右我們的對你現在講什麼天然氣三十四就是我們天然氣會經過荷姆斯海峽台灣從這個經過荷姆斯海峽運輸的天然氣佔我們國內的進口量三十四趴油呢油差不多是呃 六十二趴六十二趴沒關係 我可以接受葉管直接講你的聲音也可以出現 |
| transcript.whisperx[6].start |
133.942 |
| transcript.whisperx[6].end |
159.994 |
| transcript.whisperx[6].text |
所以其實如果荷姆茲海峽封鎖不能運送對我國的能源供應其實會吃緊的那安全儲備量涉及國安我就不問了但是這兩個命題為什麼要分開問外交部次長跟經濟部主秘這兩個題目不一樣如果美國是封鎖伊朗的每個港口跟 |
| transcript.whisperx[7].start |
162.309 |
| transcript.whisperx[7].end |
179.767 |
| transcript.whisperx[7].text |
伊朗跟美國的戰爭封鎖了荷姆茲海峽這兩個命題對我國的經濟跟國家安全有沒有差別有差別喔 差別很大喔如果伊朗的石油天然氣消失就你們手上的資訊你們的了解全世界哪個國家會受害 |
| transcript.whisperx[8].start |
180.367 |
| transcript.whisperx[8].end |
205.027 |
| transcript.whisperx[8].text |
中國會最嚴重對啊 這已經不是標準答案 這要基本嘗試因為伊朗它的油百分之八十消亡亞洲而最大甚至於幾乎是唯一的buyer就是中國可是荷姆茲海峽會影響每一國因為荷姆茲海峽控制了全球的油跟氣全世界百分之二十 |
| transcript.whisperx[9].start |
206.021 |
| transcript.whisperx[9].end |
230.422 |
| transcript.whisperx[9].text |
然後伊朗的天然氣呢佔全世界的17%石油佔9%到12%這兩個數字再加總起來看你就會知道從荷姆茲海峽出來其實伊朗的油跟氣佔大宗那只是因為我們台灣不是一個能源生產國所以我們從這邊運輸過來的佔比佔我們比較重可是佔全世界來講如果扣掉伊朗的話 |
| transcript.whisperx[10].start |
231.519 |
| transcript.whisperx[10].end |
253.25 |
| transcript.whisperx[10].text |
其實荷姆斯海峽影響全世界的油跟氣的佔比就沒那麼高了所以川普打了先打委內瑞拉再打伊朗其實是算過的委內瑞拉的油源控制加上美國是最現在是全世界大概前幾名吧大概幾乎最大的產油產氣國所以他把最大的儲量的委內瑞拉 |
| transcript.whisperx[11].start |
254.17 |
| transcript.whisperx[11].end |
276.673 |
| transcript.whisperx[11].text |
跟最大產出的美國先抓在手上然後赫姆斯海峽一封受影響的台灣會受影響但是如果現在美國剛才在進行的是對伊朗的港口的封鎖那對台灣如果赫姆斯海峽可以走的話只是封鎖從伊朗港口出來的話經濟部你們評估 |
| transcript.whisperx[12].start |
278.69 |
| transcript.whisperx[12].end |
305.947 |
| transcript.whisperx[12].text |
這對我們的經濟影響是什麼包委員這當然如同剛剛委員講的對我們來講我們就可以在經濟安全上面壓力就會小很多也會避免剛剛所提到因為能源安全壓力所造成國內在整個有物料的一個供給還有相關價格上漲的壓力所以對整個經濟發展其實是非常有正面影響我國的安全儲量是國安機密那中國的油跟氣的儲量是多少你們有沒有這個數據 |
| transcript.whisperx[13].start |
309.175 |
| transcript.whisperx[13].end |
322.559 |
| transcript.whisperx[13].text |
45天了,他們有公布過了,45天嘛那現在這個荷姆茲海峽跟伊朗的油氣不能運送幾天了?你們有沒有統計?40幾天,46 46天是戰爭喔,但荷姆茲海峽的運輸線被斷掉是幾天? |
| transcript.whisperx[14].start |
333.581 |
| transcript.whisperx[14].end |
360.61 |
| transcript.whisperx[14].text |
你們沒有算這個 你怎麼去算這個危機啊我不在考你們數據 你知道嗎這邊的運輸 這個都數學問題啊運輸是一個logistic flow 是一個數學問題那個地方占比多少 封了幾天哪一個國家進口量最大 哪一個國家怎麼樣那是可以算的 然後現在偷跑出三條船是哪幾國的 是不小心跑掉還是刻意的 那個都有影響所以外交部跟經濟部要來這邊回答問題 你這個 |
| transcript.whisperx[15].start |
362.574 |
| transcript.whisperx[15].end |
376.69 |
| transcript.whisperx[15].text |
基礎數據要有嘛要不然我怎麼跟你算這個物流嘛你懂我意思嗎所以經過這樣回推我們就可以計算啊比方說在中國的台商他的AC塑膠油料 |
| transcript.whisperx[16].start |
379.269 |
| transcript.whisperx[16].end |
406.403 |
| transcript.whisperx[16].text |
那個價格暴漲的時間大概不遠或者中國也許不會暴漲只要不賣你他就限縮他就說那個中國的名詞叫什麼有序管控有序管控就是不賣就可以斷掉嘛那台灣當然我們知道自己的安全存量可是我們台灣受伊朗的影響小受荷姆茲的影響大那荷姆茲什麼時候可以全線開通牽涉到水雷牽涉到什麼部分這個其實局勢還在演變 |
| transcript.whisperx[17].start |
407.884 |
| transcript.whisperx[17].end |
419.611 |
| transcript.whisperx[17].text |
我最後要請教兩個部會那第一個如果荷姆澤海峽封鎖繼續持續下去你們的備案是什麼 經濟部 |
| transcript.whisperx[18].start |
422.216 |
| transcript.whisperx[18].end |
445.641 |
| transcript.whisperx[18].text |
我們主要就是要第一個就是看在中東地區部分有沒有辦法走那個類似像鴻海其他的一個那個運輸管道你的能可不可以就不叫備案可以才叫備案有沒有備案目前我們在進行就是這樣方向第一個如果中東就是換他的那個管道另外就是從其他非中東地區那個管道只有阿拉伯沙烏地阿拉伯有嘛他有一個大pipe嘛 |
| transcript.whisperx[19].start |
446.041 |
| transcript.whisperx[19].end |
465.962 |
| transcript.whisperx[19].text |
然後直接從波斯灣這邊拉到另外一頭紅海那邊去嘛那紅海那邊雖然葉門那個什麼兄弟會在那邊導彈他火力沒那麼強嘛你們的備案是這個還有另外從其他非中東地區增加供海量對所以現在最主要都是從非中東地區增加現貨的角度那非中東地區哪些國家美國 |
| transcript.whisperx[20].start |
467.063 |
| transcript.whisperx[20].end |
486.676 |
| transcript.whisperx[20].text |
主要是來自於美國 澳洲澳洲是天然氣啦是 美國主要是原油的部分是原油嘛 是它的頁岩油啊什麼的所以這個備案在執行了沒目前已經在執行我們已經掌握到六月份我們本來會從荷姆茲海峽的部分我們找其他中東地區已經確定那個來源都已經確定了那我問你一個關鍵問題假設荷姆茲海峽持續封鎖我們經濟部對於我們油價穩定塑膠原料石化業的供應 |
| transcript.whisperx[21].start |
497.113 |
| transcript.whisperx[21].end |
500.031 |
| transcript.whisperx[21].text |
AC 柏油 瀝青等等這些是廢料的供應 |
| transcript.whisperx[22].start |
501.936 |
| transcript.whisperx[22].end |
529.02 |
| transcript.whisperx[22].text |
價格的穩定你們認為國人可以樂觀幾個月 未來目前我們還是要看整個國際那個月相關價格我現在已經給你一個前提我們所有的想定在國防部叫兵推你們知道經濟局勢的想定其實台灣政經兵推很久沒做了這個是屬於政經兵推想定一定從最差想定到最好嘛最差就是和睦之海峽一直封嘛封個一年好了啦 |
| transcript.whisperx[23].start |
530.011 |
| transcript.whisperx[23].end |
542.793 |
| transcript.whisperx[23].text |
那我才問你的備案 備案不叫做看可不可以 備案叫做可以才叫備案所以根據你們現有備案根據最壞局勢想定我們國人不管是企業或者是一般民眾對於油氣 |
| transcript.whisperx[24].start |
545.296 |
| transcript.whisperx[24].end |
561.197 |
| transcript.whisperx[24].text |
塑化原料以及最基礎的這種AC鋪面相關的部分對於以現在的價格來看持穩雖然中油可能某些企業我們國營企業會付出代價這個持穩的信心我們可以保持多久 |
| transcript.whisperx[25].start |
562.04 |
| transcript.whisperx[25].end |
590.653 |
| transcript.whisperx[25].text |
包委如果剛剛委員隨便所提的它影響成品其實不只是油價它會影響到國內物價所以我會看國內整個經濟的狀況跟物價狀況再來做每週跟每月檢討我現在告訴你就是說你能告訴國人說未來三個月不用擔心我們都有備案了所以最壞的局勢我們價格波動不會超過百分之十百分之八百分之五這個才叫做信心喊話你剛才講的我會看局勢然後怎麼樣 |
| transcript.whisperx[26].start |
592.048 |
| transcript.whisperx[26].end |
612.554 |
| transcript.whisperx[26].text |
沒有人會覺得局勢好就應該價格高一點的啦沒有這種東西啦所以我就問你對於這樣的信心你們認為期程可以多久因為我們現在量的部分其實很確定所以在量確定的狀況之下我們學總經的需求跟供應就是決定價格嘛你的量你的supply quantity如果確定 |
| transcript.whisperx[27].start |
613.479 |
| transcript.whisperx[27].end |
630.514 |
| transcript.whisperx[27].text |
那demand就是我們國內2300萬人產業這也是固定的所以你的備案其實是在把supply這個量固定下來那那個optimal的那個價格就不會波動太厲害嘛所以我的意思是 多久?這個信息要多久? |
| transcript.whisperx[28].start |
630.894 |
| transcript.whisperx[28].end |
656.648 |
| transcript.whisperx[28].text |
目前我們掌握量確定來源部分已經掌握到六月底了現在七月部分已經在積極的佈局當中現在四月中你們到六月底之前已經掌握了量也就是供應量到六月底無餘那需求有時候會有囤積啊這個因為心理恐慌心理性的買壓它會有一些波動但至少現有需求的供應量掌握到六月底我這樣理解沒錯嘛那七月份正在談當中嘛 |
| transcript.whisperx[29].start |
657.608 |
| transcript.whisperx[29].end |
685.204 |
| transcript.whisperx[29].text |
那備案是來自於繞道鴻海那邊或者是其他國家的供應量嘛這個是用最差狀況來想但如果荷姆斯海峽可以解封那我們大概受影響就低了然後如果荷姆斯海峽解封伊朗被封住那其實對我們來講未必是利空喔搞不好是利多喔因為另外一邊的競爭對手那邊他的油源不見了嘛好那個最後30秒請教外交部 |
| transcript.whisperx[30].start |
687.008 |
| transcript.whisperx[30].end |
707.311 |
| transcript.whisperx[30].text |
就你們現在掌握的外交局勢 荷姆斯海峽雖然那個看起來不像停戰的停戰協議還在進行當中那今天明天美國伊朗還要繼續第二輪的談判就你們現在掌握的外交訊息 荷姆斯海峽恢復運輸是可期待或暫時無法期待 |
| transcript.whisperx[31].start |
708.226 |
| transcript.whisperx[31].end |
725.994 |
| transcript.whisperx[31].text |
我覺得是說整個來看的時候的發展來說的話是不需要太悲觀但是說他有技術上面有一些困難比如說水雷水雷他們派了艦隊是幾艘軍艦平行的往裡面開又開出來其實那個在測水道啦沒錯然後呢 |
| transcript.whisperx[32].start |
727.554 |
| transcript.whisperx[32].end |
749.755 |
| transcript.whisperx[32].text |
伊朗的水雷叫做不負責任水雷,不是智慧水雷,他自己不知道跑到哪裡去不知道跑到哪裡去,現在水雷叫他放了之後就他們的第二次談話,就外交部現在從我們的主要盟友那邊得到訊息,荷姆茲海峽在交戰國下決定開放的結果是可期待或不可期待 |
| transcript.whisperx[33].start |
751.395 |
| transcript.whisperx[33].end |
763.4 |
| transcript.whisperx[33].text |
我要說的話是說不需要太過於悲觀為什麼一定要用別的話來回答我的問題我想我們還是要審慎的來評估因為我們沒有參與到這個談判不能太悲觀但是也不敢太期待 |
| transcript.whisperx[34].start |
764.987 |
| transcript.whisperx[34].end |
792.267 |
| transcript.whisperx[34].text |
我想期待還是可以期待啦我想整個大的一個情勢來看因為這很快大概十天內就會先排了像是這一個我們看到不是你如果說可以期待後來先排是開放你就會被封神嘛對不對沒有沒有不敢那你說不能期待或者你講錯了被笑而已也不會怎樣嘛所以我的意思是說這一個你知道經濟裡面除了實質供應量實質需求量以外影響經濟有一個很重要的事 |
| transcript.whisperx[35].start |
793.027 |
| transcript.whisperx[35].end |
808.329 |
| transcript.whisperx[35].text |
心理因素心理因素的穩定就不會囤積心理因素的穩定就不會搶購那個價格的波動其實以台灣這麼穩定的國家常常是因為心理因素所以我剛才用這個問題就叫兩個不 |
| transcript.whisperx[36].start |
810.171 |
| transcript.whisperx[36].end |
834.914 |
| transcript.whisperx[36].text |
一個是對外一個對內 但是經濟部在物價上一定要把心理因素考慮在內過度的謹慎 怕怎麼樣其實如果你掌握的量 掌握的來源沒有問題要讓民眾知道說你現在唱的不好 六月底我都賣掉了七月份也在打麻 這個影響很大 是好不好所以我希望今天祖密來了 回去讓部長知道適度的時候 |
| transcript.whisperx[37].start |
836.212 |
| transcript.whisperx[37].end |
845.566 |
| transcript.whisperx[37].text |
心理因素是一個國家經濟 物價 安全很重要的一個因素請兩個部會記在心裡面 謝謝是 一定 謝謝 |