| IVOD_ID |
161739 |
| IVOD_URL |
https://ivod.ly.gov.tw/Play/Clip/1M/161739 |
| 日期 |
2025-05-21 |
| 會議資料.會議代碼 |
委員會-11-3-15-20 |
| 會議資料.會議代碼:str |
第11屆第3會期內政委員會第20次全體委員會議 |
| 會議資料.屆 |
11 |
| 會議資料.會期 |
3 |
| 會議資料.會次 |
20 |
| 會議資料.種類 |
委員會 |
| 會議資料.委員會代碼[0] |
15 |
| 會議資料.委員會代碼:str[0] |
內政委員會 |
| 會議資料.標題 |
第11屆第3會期內政委員會第20次全體委員會議 |
| 影片種類 |
Clip |
| 開始時間 |
2025-05-21T12:07:20+08:00 |
| 結束時間 |
2025-05-21T12:17:13+08:00 |
| 影片長度 |
00:09:53 |
| 支援功能[0] |
ai-transcript |
| video_url |
https://ivod-lyvod.cdn.hinet.net/vod_1/_definst_/mp4:1MClips/e381da0d479eb7db0e2a1bbaf7ef6c3132bc34272b9029b325d7a793ed12253232fe7fe4339727175ea18f28b6918d91.mp4/playlist.m3u8 |
| 委員名稱 |
邱志偉 |
| 委員發言時間 |
12:07:20 - 12:17:13 |
| 會議時間 |
2025-05-21T09:00:00+08:00 |
| 會議名稱 |
立法院第11屆第3會期內政委員會第20次全體委員會議（事由：邀請大陸委員會主任委員及財團法人海峽交流基金會董事長列席報告業務概況，並備質詢。） |
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| transcript.whisperx[0].start |
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謝謝是不是邀請陸委會邱主委邱主委有請邱委員好謝謝主委主委辛苦了我想這個影響兩岸關係可操之在我們就是我們政策要規劃好要執行好非操之在己的部分就是中國內部的因素中國內部因素包括權力鬥爭第一個 |
| transcript.whisperx[1].start |
35.407 |
| transcript.whisperx[1].end |
53.241 |
| transcript.whisperx[1].text |
它這個經濟成長的情況第三個就是社會穩定的狀況從這個角度來看今年以來啊今年以來中共高層 中國高層這個權力鬥爭的狀況有沒有比去年更為激烈 |
| transcript.whisperx[2].start |
54.861 |
| transcript.whisperx[2].end |
80.342 |
| transcript.whisperx[2].text |
跟我們報告這個中共高層如果以他們仍然強調八項規定反貪打斧那麼以今年這個副部級以上中管幹部落馬的人數有20位其中三位是正部級的我想這方面這以反貪 |
| transcript.whisperx[3].start |
81.483 |
| transcript.whisperx[3].end |
107.914 |
| transcript.whisperx[3].text |
把重要的官員雙規的還是蠻嚴重的那這些指示大概是來自於許晉平嘛如果是正部級的所以許晉平對於處置這些他下面的這些官員他力道越大有可能造成更大的反彈那我看是他的力道從來沒有小過好像一年比一年更為強烈那您預估他的領導地位啊許晉平領導地位 |
| transcript.whisperx[4].start |
111.266 |
| transcript.whisperx[4].end |
112.673 |
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會不會弱化是 |
| transcript.whisperx[5].start |
113.503 |
| transcript.whisperx[5].end |
141.301 |
| transcript.whisperx[5].text |
包括我們剛剛講的是一般的違反派上規定反貪打腐的部分那麼尤其對軍方的高級將領的依依的去職從何偉東軍委的副主席開始那麼我們看到很多的軍事將領也因案被查那您剛剛有提到這個習近平是穩不穩那我 我們 |
| transcript.whisperx[6].start |
142.342 |
| transcript.whisperx[6].end |
166.894 |
| transcript.whisperx[6].text |
我們判斷他還是權力很穩定都可以正常的出國他的行程還是大刀闊斧的進行內部的這個人員整數然後當然我覺得一定會某種程度會更多的反彈另外一個他執政基礎就是經濟成長經濟穩定那你看川普的關稅政策對美國當然勢必造成直接的衝擊 |
| transcript.whisperx[7].start |
168.206 |
| transcript.whisperx[7].end |
181.171 |
| transcript.whisperx[7].text |
那經濟如果往下行往下修那會讓他的統治基礎執政基礎弱化是那您覺得這個今年或者到明年中國的經濟狀況會不會因此弱化從2022年中國大陸的經濟就不斷的惡化 |
| transcript.whisperx[8].start |
187.113 |
| transcript.whisperx[8].end |
214.481 |
| transcript.whisperx[8].text |
2020年開始從它解封之後我想它復甦的力道經濟這個提振的預振法律仍然情勢在惡化加上這個您剛剛提到的跟美中之間的關稅戰以及未來的科技戰那麼我想中國大陸現在的經濟發展受到很大的壓力那加上我們從中國大陸的統計 |
| transcript.whisperx[9].start |
216.641 |
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239.594 |
| transcript.whisperx[9].text |
數據來看一方面有很多統計數據都不真實也被蓋牌那也發現很多矛盾的地方那這個對外資的出走也是造成一個原因因為你這個前景不明數字失真他們無法繼續投資所以我們看外資一直在出走 |
| transcript.whisperx[10].start |
240.054 |
| transcript.whisperx[10].end |
261.276 |
| transcript.whisperx[10].text |
外資出走投資不振所以經濟下行經濟惡化直接衝擊就是民生嘛或者產業產業沒有上來民生往下行當然影響所有經濟成長的山下馬車都是老百姓如果對生活充滿了抱怨或者充滿了不公平 |
| transcript.whisperx[11].start |
262.401 |
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281.219 |
| transcript.whisperx[11].text |
那他們當然是會直接衝擊到這個他們國家的社會穩定對不對那你覺得他們社會穩定習近平的政權如果去維持現行的在經濟狀況那麼糟糕的情況之下他還能維持一定的控制讓他社會穩定他是用什麼方法呢 |
| transcript.whisperx[12].start |
282.842 |
| transcript.whisperx[12].end |
308.879 |
| transcript.whisperx[12].text |
跟委員報告我們也了解習政權面臨到內外部的內外交迫空權的挑戰不管是你剛剛講的內部經濟面也引發了這個停工潮這個停工潮很快就變失業潮中國大陸現在每年有1200萬的這個大學畢業生要就業非常的嚴重那這個就會有社會問題 |
| transcript.whisperx[13].start |
310.04 |
| transcript.whisperx[13].end |
329.853 |
| transcript.whisperx[13].text |
那對整個政權的穩定度就會產生影響不過我們也看到中國大陸各種的經濟工作包括也在積極的在創造更多的經濟的能量輔助經濟的這個穩定他們有四穩三保的一個政策 |
| transcript.whisperx[14].start |
331.054 |
| transcript.whisperx[14].end |
350.963 |
| transcript.whisperx[14].text |
所以他們的不利因素包括經濟社會穩定包括他們政治權力鬥爭我想好像都沒有比過去有改善所以我們當然只能本身做最好的準備那一點點時間再請教海基會吳董事長吳董事長有請謝謝吳董事長還有邱主委 |
| transcript.whisperx[15].start |
357.389 |
| transcript.whisperx[15].end |
379.581 |
| transcript.whisperx[15].text |
就是說兩岸人民交流吳董事長是德高望重那對兩岸關係我想他是一個非常重要的這個董事長這個位置非常重要一定可以做很多事情就是兩岸人民交流我想請教邱主委今年一到四月國能附中的人數有沒有這個數字我們都有那比起去年同期是減少 |
| transcript.whisperx[16].start |
388.197 |
| transcript.whisperx[16].end |
411.413 |
| transcript.whisperx[16].text |
跟去年差不多沒有旅行目的嘛都是商務嘛你說中國大陸來的不夠國人附中很多都是旅遊的也有也有旅遊像旅遊團客嘛對不對因為它自由行本來我們就是尊重人數比去年同期是降今年第一季今年一到四月應該是降嘛 |
| transcript.whisperx[17].start |
416.44 |
| transcript.whisperx[17].end |
442.273 |
| transcript.whisperx[17].text |
一到三月是44萬如果以去年的話我們是277萬就是下降嘛有人說是不是為邦不入啦但是兩岸還是有某種程度商務啦或者人員的交流這個是存在的所以海紀委吳董事長這邊扮演很重要的角色啦但是第一個我考慮到人身安全國人富中他人身安全很重要那提到港澳 |
| transcript.whisperx[18].start |
443.547 |
| transcript.whisperx[18].end |
453.47 |
| transcript.whisperx[18].text |
當然港澳目前變成一中化了你去香港澳門跟去中國這個本土一樣因為我就不敢從香港轉機您認為我適合從香港轉機嗎 |
| transcript.whisperx[19].start |
459.063 |
| transcript.whisperx[19].end |
472.181 |
| transcript.whisperx[19].text |
我想委員過去有從香港轉機的經驗不要不讓我入境對 並不愉快那我們也建議如果沒有必要 盡量不要那也希望委員要轉機 |
| transcript.whisperx[20].start |
473.863 |
| transcript.whisperx[20].end |
484.797 |
| transcript.whisperx[20].text |
眷屬我覺得應該比較沒問題不過委員有需要都通知我們醫生那我們來幫你做安全評估第二個不用啦 我不會去啦 |
| transcript.whisperx[21].start |
489.122 |
| transcript.whisperx[21].end |
513.13 |
| transcript.whisperx[21].text |
我想我們從我們進入香港我們要坦白就是說我們從這個香港開始有兩個國安法一個是港版國安法一個是他們的國安條例國安二法實施以來我們也很關注我們國人是不是入境有因為被國安事由被逮捕的 |
| transcript.whisperx[22].start |
513.85 |
| transcript.whisperx[22].end |
541.27 |
| transcript.whisperx[22].text |
截至目前為止還沒有案例出來但是我們不能說就掉以輕心謝謝謝謝主委那我想請教吳董事長就是吳董事長我想請教您對於當前兩岸關係您的看法是怎樣這個問題好大沒關係就是您個人很大我知道有沒有什麼具體的未來不知道一年內你覺得必須要完成的 |
| transcript.whisperx[23].start |
542.055 |
| transcript.whisperx[23].end |
569.61 |
| transcript.whisperx[23].text |
當前兩岸的關係就是我們中華民國信仰和平主義中華人民共和國公開講還是無同實際的作為上我們沒有激進到大陸它不斷激進到台灣我們不搞襯托文化它一直襯托文化可是我認為中共 |
| transcript.whisperx[24].start |
571.997 |
| transcript.whisperx[24].end |
589.118 |
| transcript.whisperx[24].text |
慢慢的應該會發覺和平還是對他比較好真要對台動武的話他也完蛋所以我對兩岸的和平發展我審慎樂觀現在情況就這樣子好 謝謝董事長 謝謝邱主委好 謝謝 |