| IVOD_ID |
161060 |
| IVOD_URL |
https://ivod.ly.gov.tw/Play/Clip/1M/161060 |
| 日期 |
2025-05-08 |
| 會議資料.會議代碼 |
委員會-11-3-20-11 |
| 會議資料.會議代碼:str |
第11屆第3會期財政委員會第11次全體委員會議 |
| 會議資料.屆 |
11 |
| 會議資料.會期 |
3 |
| 會議資料.會次 |
11 |
| 會議資料.種類 |
委員會 |
| 會議資料.委員會代碼[0] |
20 |
| 會議資料.委員會代碼:str[0] |
財政委員會 |
| 會議資料.標題 |
第11屆第3會期財政委員會第11次全體委員會議 |
| 影片種類 |
Clip |
| 開始時間 |
2025-05-08T10:24:50+08:00 |
| 結束時間 |
2025-05-08T10:36:15+08:00 |
| 影片長度 |
00:11:25 |
| 支援功能[0] |
ai-transcript |
| video_url |
https://ivod-lyvod.cdn.hinet.net/vod_1/_definst_/mp4:1MClips/26c557d936b203c12b50e721f13a03cce0059966c803d0e95f5e885147c9c9bce3cda55e1e93cba55ea18f28b6918d91.mp4/playlist.m3u8 |
| 委員名稱 |
郭國文 |
| 委員發言時間 |
10:24:50 - 10:36:15 |
| 會議時間 |
2025-05-08T09:00:00+08:00 |
| 會議名稱 |
立法院第11屆第3會期財政委員會第11次全體委員會議（事由：邀請行政院主計總處陳主計長淑姿、財政部莊部長翠雲、中央銀行楊總裁金龍、國家發展委員會劉主任委員鏡清、勞動部洪部長申翰、銓敘部施部長能傑就「我國如果要設立國家主權基金，中央銀行與政府相關基金（如四大基金等）所扮演的角色為何？」進行專題報告，並備質詢。
【5月7日及8日二天一次會】） |
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謝謝主席喔有請楊總裁跟阮次蔣總裁還有阮次蔣次長 財政部的阮次長 |
| transcript.whisperx[1].start |
12.658 |
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郭委員早總裁最近辛苦了總裁其實就美元的部分的這個走勢本席曾經在委員會當中就教於您您兩次都斬釘截鐵回答本席說一定是強勢美元但是呢我就這個美元的這一個指數它對照六個國際貨幣的指數加權平均來計算它從川普上任的時候是108目前一路一直走走走走到100喔 |
| transcript.whisperx[2].start |
40.49 |
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56.229 |
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顯然你也預測跟你的這個現在事實的發展有一些不一樣的地方這是第一個那第二個你也常常在引述說這個美國財政部的說法為什麼財政部是財政部啊商業部是商業部啊商業部希望走扁財政部希望走強啊 |
| transcript.whisperx[3].start |
56.97 |
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78.632 |
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那依照這一波下來之後,它還是一直在盤旋在100左右可能因為一個訊息就跑上去,可能因為一個訊息跑下來那我就想要救教,第三次救教於總裁,你認為美元會走強還是走弱所以我剛剛在答覆其他委員的時候,我就說匯率說實在是很難去預測的 |
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79.673 |
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98.452 |
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沒有 抱歉 可是你上次講了斬釘截鐵沒有沒有沒有 我剛剛上次的講法是3月13號我上次的講法是說美國的財政部呢 都每一個財政部的部長都希望強烈去年10月 我改天掉袋子給你看 我跟你argue這沒意思啦去年10月我待會事後給媒體 你斬釘截鐵會說左強 |
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101.315 |
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126.001 |
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為什麼問這個 這個跟匯率有所相關那這一波的匯率來說的話我也對照你的臉書上面來看我們是急升到8.26然後日本是緩升到8.99那緩升跟急升之間結果還是相同那為什麼我們突然之間急升呢我不曉得你有沒有想過這個原因但是你有講出來幾個一個可能性 |
| transcript.whisperx[6].start |
126.741 |
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143.365 |
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第一個當然就是外資匯入買股第二個是進出口商拋售美元第三個就是所謂的熱錢跟禿鷹可是我想這些你現在的說法都是一些貨幣因素可是與其心理應該是心理因素我抓兩個東西 總裁 |
| transcript.whisperx[7].start |
145.666 |
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162.751 |
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我認為貨幣因素當中的草匯突入因當你講這個或許有這個可能停留過久但我就就教於你還有兩個可能性會造成這個預期新齡第一個也就是廣場協議的部分1.0可能會產生2.0的版本你是到五月初才說嘛對不對 |
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165.761 |
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181.028 |
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因為我一直聽到你是五月出台書但是這個1.0的這個印象對台灣人來說其實衝擊實在太大了除了日本之外就是我們嘛這是第一個我覺得你的表態跟說明太晚 |
| transcript.whisperx[9].start |
181.308 |
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196.907 |
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因為大家不是所有人對整體經濟都對你這麼熟悉嗎這是第一個第二個呢有人提到所謂的這一個那個經濟學人的大麥克指數的時候直接抵明台灣會升值到13.3的時候老師說我沒有看到央行有任何的一個反駁跟說明啊 |
| transcript.whisperx[10].start |
198.507 |
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214.313 |
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而且媒體一直燒燒燒燒好多天了到昨天謝金河還在講央行有沒有在這個進行反駁也沒有所以以至於這種媒體的推波助瀾之下再加上這個突應來襲就造成了這一波的急漲啊 |
| transcript.whisperx[11].start |
215.313 |
| transcript.whisperx[11].end |
230.812 |
| transcript.whisperx[11].text |
我看法是這樣子那個委員說的也沒有錯不過我們也有事實上就是說當然就是說就是說第一時間來澄清是效果會更好啦 |
| transcript.whisperx[12].start |
231.192 |
| transcript.whisperx[12].end |
246.271 |
| transcript.whisperx[12].text |
對啊當然啊你沒有神經啊但是我們就是說只有在私下跟這些市場的評論者太保守了啦對啦 這個是有一點我們以後又會要記取這個教訓你知道商業週刊的那個渲染力有多強 |
| transcript.whisperx[13].start |
247.012 |
| transcript.whisperx[13].end |
261.486 |
| transcript.whisperx[13].text |
他還有一定的權威性13.3%裡面沒有任何的反駁結果讓他燒來燒去燒了半個月然後第二個你也是五月初的時候才開始講說所謂的廣場協定的2.0我是前幾天的時候在聽你講說廣場協定2.0不可能出現那我對照現在的資本規模確實你講的有道理 |
| transcript.whisperx[14].start |
267.412 |
| transcript.whisperx[14].end |
293.317 |
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我不是否認但是至少你的時間點timing點要抓好嘛是是是找個份預期性越來越大你不否認吧對對 委員的一個建議啊我們來我們吸取教訓我們會以後就是說對於這個就是說這個就是說星星之火可以燎原對 沒有錯嘛那確實啦確實啦那在在這一個在這方面呢我想呢我們應該啊就是說因為 |
| transcript.whisperx[15].start |
294.517 |
| transcript.whisperx[15].end |
316.995 |
| transcript.whisperx[15].text |
另外有說以前要及時撲滅猩猩之火沒有錯啦你現在成為機構所有的消防車都在你那邊隨便灑一下就熄啦第三個部分就是禿鷹那我問一下這波禿鷹你們做調查你們做精檢你會不會使出楊金榮三個方式說命他離開或命他馬上 |
| transcript.whisperx[16].start |
317.655 |
| transcript.whisperx[16].end |
345.794 |
| transcript.whisperx[16].text |
我現在我們前一次在說的時候就是說我們有觀察到這個但是我們也沒有說他就是禿鷹但是我們就說有這個跡象疑似禿鷹疑似這個禿鷹的現象當然我們說禿鷹禿鷹的定義跟我所說的禿鷹疑似禿鷹你定義侵告我們應該就是說是他吵過如果再不走了是嗎對但是這個我們就盯得很緊 |
| transcript.whisperx[17].start |
346.334 |
| transcript.whisperx[17].end |
372.011 |
| transcript.whisperx[17].text |
對 如果再不走的時候呢然後呢 現在呢 現在呢 我們就是去我們昨天就開始 我們就去專案檢查對 我們就去專案檢查以前彭總裁的方式就要拿出來了對 我覺得就是說 我們有做這一點好 這個就希望看到有破裂的做法才會有遏制的效果啦 好不好另外一個部分喔 就教育您的部分喔 |
| transcript.whisperx[18].start |
373.012 |
| transcript.whisperx[18].end |
396.768 |
| transcript.whisperx[18].text |
有關於這個總量管制的部分總量信用管制的部分我記得我們第一波的時候當初的基本職中率我去查過是36.64你開始啟動的時候我最近調查最新的是36.89你上一波的檢討的時候認為37.1集中度還是太高對不對好現在當下來了我們現在時間點這個時間點不過是5月8號 |
| transcript.whisperx[19].start |
402.455 |
| transcript.whisperx[19].end |
430.542 |
| transcript.whisperx[19].text |
到你六月的時候你監視還有一段時間對如果按照這種抖降的趨勢的話他Maybe是有可能是低於第一波的這個時間點你會不會重新做一些政策上的考量我們會看看啦因為我們給他要一年的時間去自己調整啦對 當然是要調整時間對我只是問一下你一直有一個量化考學的指標嘛現在如果低於第一波 |
| transcript.whisperx[20].start |
431.363 |
| transcript.whisperx[20].end |
442.674 |
| transcript.whisperx[20].text |
我跟委員報告就是說我們都一直在強調我們會滾動式的檢討對 滾動式的檢討滾到後來你也是要好好的面對這個問題滾到現在已經快36.6是差不多啦我們會再檢討繼續滾 |
| transcript.whisperx[21].start |
451.943 |
| transcript.whisperx[21].end |
473.064 |
| transcript.whisperx[21].text |
再檢討啊如果滾下去的時候怎麼辦不會我就問你這個問題啊不會不會不會不會滾下去不我意思就是說我們對於這個我看喔快要滾下去了啦按照這個趨勢快要滾下去了滾到36.64的時候你現在心裡頭的想法是什麼 |
| transcript.whisperx[22].start |
473.704 |
| transcript.whisperx[22].end |
501.379 |
| transcript.whisperx[22].text |
六月份的李監事會不會討論大家都會看而且我還跟你對照一個史上最大的家屋草單季喔破三萬一千戶這剛發生為什麼這樣講呢因為你的命令啊就像聖旨一樣銀行都要遵守後面就有軟刺在那邊每個月的房地產新作額度不能超過預款的這個這個還款的額度為限那其實啊有打到 |
| transcript.whisperx[23].start |
502.68 |
| transcript.whisperx[23].end |
523.577 |
| transcript.whisperx[23].text |
誰 打到那種患無主啊患無主現在銀行都不想要借啦都要竊竊幹嘛有的沒有的這個其實民間是有怨言的然後這一波的三萬一千戶當中到底有多少戶你可能要請財政部 請金管會去了解一下不要打到無辜你可以打投資客但是你不要打到患無主 |
| transcript.whisperx[24].start |
524.398 |
| transcript.whisperx[24].end |
543.894 |
| transcript.whisperx[24].text |
我現在有聽到類似這樣的那個民怨出現所以說總裁我才特別來這邊提醒你法人的部分你要繼續原格我沒有意見法人要拿到資本槓桿操作的可能性很大而且他們還款能力很強我認為甚至要屈原也都OK但是你不要打到自然人你不要打到幻物族可以嗎 |
| transcript.whisperx[25].start |
545.014 |
| transcript.whisperx[25].end |
571.761 |
| transcript.whisperx[25].text |
對 我們會檢討好 麻煩檢討一下好 麻煩檢討一下總裁我最後看到你這個報告當中寫到的這個所謂的主權基金三個來源三個來源 三種方式一 財政部發債二 財政部撥款三 財政部出資設資那軟刺我就問你了那個總裁稍坐一下轉場上已經講了三種方式了嘛結果軟刺你們財政部出來的這個報告實在是 |
| transcript.whisperx[26].start |
573.962 |
| transcript.whisperx[26].end |
598.408 |
| transcript.whisperx[26].text |
老實講齁 以不變應萬變總裁稍等一下 我還有一個問題要請教你 抱歉 我是偏要休息一下以不變應萬變你們怎麼可以這樣子 部長去開亞營啊你們就不變應萬變你們至少要跟他賴一下嘛你們這幾次的報告當中從來沒有變而且 還是蘇建榮財政部長呼籲你們前任財政部長 |
| transcript.whisperx[27].start |
600.508 |
| transcript.whisperx[27].end |
627.095 |
| transcript.whisperx[27].text |
還說要主權基金要成立咧你們連跟他A口一下都沒有沒有跟他捧場一下都沒有這個跟委員報告這基本上對這個主權基金這一部分因為目前還在討論當中所以我們對啊你們後來就寫行政院指示啊你們連行政院還是交給你們做評估行政院指示你們連評估都沒有評估這一點我老實講很不滿啊好 請你回去請你回去我請那個總裁一下總裁我最後超時一分鐘一下 |
| transcript.whisperx[28].start |
628.335 |
| transcript.whisperx[28].end |
647.464 |
| transcript.whisperx[28].text |
兩個模式啦 一個新加坡模式 一個韓國模式啦總裁 你比較該哪個模式如果依照我們現在的這個央行有2.7%的外匯存體委外操作的話大約金額有140到150億美元的話你這個模式聽起來是委託給主權基金操作我看起來好像比較偏韓國模式 是不是 |
| transcript.whisperx[29].start |
649.032 |
| transcript.whisperx[29].end |
676.513 |
| transcript.whisperx[29].text |
我想就是說主權基金的一個成立先就是說因為現在政府我聽他們就說現在要來確定就是說是不是要成立那成立了以後慢慢他的步驟他就慢慢的會明瞭出來到最後資金的來源的時候我們再來用什麼確定就是說一定要設立那中央銀行用什麼方式來協助好就不管黑貓白貓只要會抓老鼠就好貓 |
| transcript.whisperx[30].start |
677.153 |
| transcript.whisperx[30].end |
681.35 |
| transcript.whisperx[30].text |
不管新加坡或韓國模式都可以是不是OK 謝謝總裁的回顧 謝謝 |