| IVOD_ID |
161049 |
| IVOD_URL |
https://ivod.ly.gov.tw/Play/Clip/1M/161049 |
| 日期 |
2025-05-08 |
| 會議資料.會議代碼 |
委員會-11-3-20-11 |
| 會議資料.會議代碼:str |
第11屆第3會期財政委員會第11次全體委員會議 |
| 會議資料.屆 |
11 |
| 會議資料.會期 |
3 |
| 會議資料.會次 |
11 |
| 會議資料.種類 |
委員會 |
| 會議資料.委員會代碼[0] |
20 |
| 會議資料.委員會代碼:str[0] |
財政委員會 |
| 會議資料.標題 |
第11屆第3會期財政委員會第11次全體委員會議 |
| 影片種類 |
Clip |
| 開始時間 |
2025-05-08T10:00:19+08:00 |
| 結束時間 |
2025-05-08T10:11:09+08:00 |
| 影片長度 |
00:10:50 |
| 支援功能[0] |
ai-transcript |
| video_url |
https://ivod-lyvod.cdn.hinet.net/vod_1/_definst_/mp4:1MClips/26c557d936b203c1ee16ab68bc572392e0059966c803d0e95f5e885147c9c9bcdc5543f29fdbc7c55ea18f28b6918d91.mp4/playlist.m3u8 |
| 委員名稱 |
吳秉叡 |
| 委員發言時間 |
10:00:19 - 10:11:09 |
| 會議時間 |
2025-05-08T09:00:00+08:00 |
| 會議名稱 |
立法院第11屆第3會期財政委員會第11次全體委員會議（事由：邀請行政院主計總處陳主計長淑姿、財政部莊部長翠雲、中央銀行楊總裁金龍、國家發展委員會劉主任委員鏡清、勞動部洪部長申翰、銓敘部施部長能傑就「我國如果要設立國家主權基金，中央銀行與政府相關基金（如四大基金等）所扮演的角色為何？」進行專題報告，並備質詢。
【5月7日及8日二天一次會】） |
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主席麻煩請央行楊總裁有請央行楊總裁吳委員早總裁好今天雖然是 |
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題目是要研究要成立國發基金與否但是我看今天主題的焦點都在你身上那就是因為大家關心匯率那先講我們今天的主題我看到你的報告裡面有主張說這個不能不贊成由外匯存底來撥但是有幾個方式包括是不是可以發行 |
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像民間募資或是財政部出錢等等幾個方式其實我覺得像民間募資是一個不錯的方法如果大家對於政府將來成立的專門機構的投資有信心民間募資等於是國債 |
| transcript.whisperx[3].start |
63.428 |
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| transcript.whisperx[3].text |
那至少讓我們現在台灣充沛的這個超額儲蓄或是這個想要投資的金額有地方去啊有很多人還去買美債咧那如果對中華民國有信心對台灣有信心我買台灣國債也是一個不錯的方法只是一直以前我們對於這一方面國債這個發行的控制一直很嚴格啊所以這個我覺得這也是一個不錯的方法你的看法呢 |
| transcript.whisperx[4].start |
93.474 |
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112.399 |
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委員在講這個的時候,我也覺得就是說,如果就我們中央的債務佔GDP的比重以目前來看的話,差不多是25、29左右而已 |
| transcript.whisperx[5].start |
113.479 |
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136.169 |
| transcript.whisperx[5].text |
跟其他的國家來比較的話我們說實話我們的財政紀律非常嚴謹嚴謹的意思就是說事實上財政還是有空間的所以如果我這個是專門為國發基金發行要發行國發基金我向民間募資所發行的國債如果你要算入這個債務總量那就 |
| transcript.whisperx[6].start |
139.025 |
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154.877 |
| transcript.whisperx[6].text |
那就不一定很好用啦因為在馬政府的時代曾經舉借高達百分之三十八點多你知道嗎總共就三千就四十點七而已啊那時候剩下兩二點多個將近三個百分點就 |
| transcript.whisperx[7].start |
155.834 |
| transcript.whisperx[7].end |
181.883 |
| transcript.whisperx[7].text |
就破表啦是現在這些年來的努力之後近十幾年來的努力之後現在才降到這25點多的狀況那如果要走國債發行這一個路子是不是這個那一部分的發行的這個公債喔應該不要去記錄這個總債總量裡面為什麼因為那個不是國家國家只是發行之後把你的錢拿來當國發機器 |
| transcript.whisperx[8].start |
185.436 |
| transcript.whisperx[8].end |
205.529 |
| transcript.whisperx[8].text |
這個機器它並沒有把它拿去花掉它並不是負債的觀念我是覺得這樣子才會比較有空間那我是贊成這樣的方式不過這個目前只是在研議階段將來離這個要具體成案應該還要花很多的心力所以我們就回到現在的熱點上面來談這個規律的問題 |
| transcript.whisperx[9].start |
208.373 |
| transcript.whisperx[9].end |
229.359 |
| transcript.whisperx[9].text |
如果單只有兩個國家的貿易因為匯率其實非常的複雜而且是整個世界跟不同國家之間的變動單純就國際貿易兩個國家之間的匯率如果是長期的出超國他的貨幣本來就是應該慢慢要升值的 |
| transcript.whisperx[10].start |
231.88 |
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256.441 |
| transcript.whisperx[10].text |
這個入鈔國它本來就是貨幣會比較弱勢啦正常狀況是這樣講所以台灣如果長程一直對美國一直加大這個出鈔 順差然後一直持續的話那台幣的走強是可以預期嘛其實這幾年來喔台幣在周遭國家相對我們的匯率是比較強的我們的幣值也比較強嘛 對不對 |
| transcript.whisperx[11].start |
258.122 |
| transcript.whisperx[11].end |
267.313 |
| transcript.whisperx[11].text |
我跟委員報告 就是說委員的分析是沒有錯不過就是說現在決定匯率的因素不是 |
| transcript.whisperx[12].start |
270.339 |
| transcript.whisperx[12].end |
296.211 |
| transcript.whisperx[12].text |
不是就貿易的這個部分因為我們也就一直在就是說說明事實上現在的外匯市場我們現在外匯市場那個資金的移動這個部分所佔的比重非常高全球我就跟委員報告全球就是說資金的移動的這種金融帳的這個外匯的交易所佔的比重 |
| transcript.whisperx[13].start |
297.051 |
| transcript.whisperx[13].end |
324.688 |
| transcript.whisperx[13].text |
超過95%以上是啦這就是我後面要說的我說正常如果以長程的理論來講是這樣但是因為因素非常的複雜在剛剛講的啊這個跟基金有關啊全世界這麼大金額的基金這麼多我舉個例子以前索羅斯曾經要來舉起台幣嘛那也是他用大量的基金來啊其實這個個人財富要去撼動匯率那是很困難的但是要有大量的基金來做這種 |
| transcript.whisperx[14].start |
325.789 |
| transcript.whisperx[14].end |
348.071 |
| transcript.whisperx[14].text |
巨額的進入 巨額的離開之前有發生亞洲金融危機不是就是為了匯率的咀嚼而來的而是大量的金額的移動所以我覺得這次央行有注意到說對於大筆金額的移動你們有在盯也表達有盯 表達說要跟他溝通 |
| transcript.whisperx[15].start |
349.552 |
| transcript.whisperx[15].end |
372.865 |
| transcript.whisperx[15].text |
講難題就是要請他喝咖啡嘛你來的原因是什麼你剛剛也有講到你進來如果是為了要買股票那我們不反對但是你如果進來parking在那邊大量一直進來準備要賺會差這個我們就不能同意啦對對沒有錯那個委員謝謝謝謝你在這邊來宣示這一次的問題我想到的是另外的問題 |
| transcript.whisperx[16].start |
375.186 |
| transcript.whisperx[16].end |
381.572 |
| transcript.whisperx[16].text |
因為這次有非常大的這個預期心理不是只有基金的移動另外還有 |
| transcript.whisperx[17].start |
383.208 |
| transcript.whisperx[17].end |
412.45 |
| transcript.whisperx[17].text |
我不知道為什麼有很多人就是對於川普完全就抱著非常懷疑非常不信任認為他做的都是壞事這樣的角度在看待事情所以他就去拿什麼海湖莊園啊什麼新台幣會升值到13.3比1啊他用大麥克指數所謂大麥克指數當然內行人知道他用大麥克指數去認為台幣的這個購買力等於是應該對美金是13.3用這樣的角度來講的話台幣一定會巨幅升值 |
| transcript.whisperx[18].start |
413.191 |
| transcript.whisperx[18].end |
437.167 |
| transcript.whisperx[18].text |
結果就引發了群眾心理這個就某種角度類似銀行的擠兌同一個時間大家都要去領錢同一個時間大家都要去換費就還引起網路塞車我現在也想到這當然是金融網路的課題現在有網路銀行已經有三家這個問題不是只有塞車如果你在那邊流量 |
| transcript.whisperx[19].start |
438.388 |
| transcript.whisperx[19].end |
451.834 |
| transcript.whisperx[19].text |
很大上次美國倒了幾家銀行尤其是矽谷的銀行就是同一時間大家都是因為網路的關係所有的大公司都是網路立刻把錢轉走等於是 |
| transcript.whisperx[20].start |
453.168 |
| transcript.whisperx[20].end |
471.377 |
| transcript.whisperx[20].text |
以前擠兌還要人工去銀行分行排隊領錢你要領大量的錢你要派卡車運鈔車來載現在的網路銀行因為網路的關係我會走多少錢是根本只是一個案件的這個動作 |
| transcript.whisperx[21].start |
473.328 |
| transcript.whisperx[21].end |
495.141 |
| transcript.whisperx[21].text |
所以我是覺得這一方面金融機構要有新的想法面對網路暢通無阻之後如果同時大量的預期心理同時去進行網路的動作的話一方面網路塞車被罵爆了我要辦 辦不到但是如果你都完全順暢的話 |
| transcript.whisperx[22].start |
496.738 |
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523.532 |
| transcript.whisperx[22].text |
很可能會引起這種災難委員你的分析我非常佩服確實是這樣子就是說像美國的那個最近那個錢搬出去速度之快一樣的就是說你外匯的買賣呢一個訊息呢他就會能夠有那個羊群的那個效應大家一窩蜂的確實您的分析是非常正確的 |
| transcript.whisperx[23].start |
525.193 |
| transcript.whisperx[23].end |
540.624 |
| transcript.whisperx[23].text |
過去台灣的外匯資料看起來緩升跟急升各有利弊緩升的最大的弊弊是有預期心理所以不會停我不知道你要緩步升到哪裡所以我每天投入都會賺 |
| transcript.whisperx[24].start |
542.085 |
| transcript.whisperx[24].end |
570.197 |
| transcript.whisperx[24].text |
那就導致大家都每天都在玩這個就長期而言就政府就大失血而且終點在哪裡不知道緩身就緩身的困難提升的困難在哪裡呢是做這些外做這些出口的進口的他因為對於這個匯率要多少不清楚他報價很困難所以導致他短期之間的營運困難第二個困難就是說他可能他的避險成本要花很多 |
| transcript.whisperx[25].start |
571.798 |
| transcript.whisperx[25].end |
597.04 |
| transcript.whisperx[25].text |
所以這個其實如果匯率在上漲或是下跌無論是緩跟急喔都各有利弊啦但是你們央行就是要很注意這個是不是有惡意性的人為操控譬如說要外大量的基金要來套現要來套利就要注意防止這個東西是是是沒有錯沒有錯所以我就覺得應該要讓媒體知道啊對 |
| transcript.whisperx[26].start |
598.061 |
| transcript.whisperx[26].end |
613.631 |
| transcript.whisperx[26].text |
其實集生如果是確定進來幣的幣值假設是30點多集生不見得比返生不好如果我知道現在的幣值從33塊要升到30點多而且是慢慢升的話讓我每天進去都賺錢是 沒有錯 |
| transcript.whisperx[27].start |
615.772 |
| transcript.whisperx[27].end |
640.768 |
| transcript.whisperx[27].text |
所以委員的這個說法我非常贊同這個也就是說為什麼我們在我們在禮拜一就5月5號的時候我們出來臨時的記者會那也非常好的就是說立法院就是財委會呢也給我們的這個機會來衝刃再次的說明再次的澄清好那就加油這個方面的控制就是對於那個 |
| transcript.whisperx[28].start |
641.99 |
| transcript.whisperx[28].end |
646.723 |
| transcript.whisperx[28].text |
大量的資金 突然之間來突襲的我們還是要有以待之啦 小心防備 |