| IVOD_ID |
160129 |
| IVOD_URL |
https://ivod.ly.gov.tw/Play/Clip/1M/160129 |
| 日期 |
2025-04-11 |
| 會議資料.會議代碼 |
院會-11-3-7 |
| 會議資料.會議代碼:str |
第11屆第3會期第7次會議 |
| 會議資料.屆 |
11 |
| 會議資料.會期 |
3 |
| 會議資料.會次 |
7 |
| 會議資料.種類 |
院會 |
| 會議資料.標題 |
第11屆第3會期第7次會議 |
| 影片種類 |
Clip |
| 開始時間 |
2025-04-11T16:44:44+08:00 |
| 結束時間 |
2025-04-11T17:01:06+08:00 |
| 影片長度 |
00:16:22 |
| 支援功能[0] |
ai-transcript |
| video_url |
https://ivod-lyvod.cdn.hinet.net/vod_1/_definst_/mp4:1MClips/612fb6649aede235fb2ae266f758ee3f4ee85e61fece82c2d9574523edc1765d7c5064231c774fdb5ea18f28b6918d91.mp4/playlist.m3u8 |
| 委員名稱 |
鍾佳濱 |
| 委員發言時間 |
16:44:44 - 17:01:06 |
| 會議時間 |
2025-04-11T09:00:00+08:00 |
| 會議名稱 |
第11屆第3會期第7次會議（事由：一、覆議案之處理事項（4月11日上午）。二、行政院院長提出針對美國關稅政策因應作為專案報告並備質詢（4月11日下午）。三、對行政院院長提出施政方針及施政報告繼續質詢（4月15日）。四、4月11日上午9時至10時為國是論壇時間。） |
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主席、在場委員先進列席的政府局官、首長、官員、會長、工作夥伴、媒體記者、女士先生先有請行政院卓院長那因為總談判代表楊政委員不能上台就請我們國發會劉主委那另外經濟部跟農業部長昨天聽過了我就不請了但是可以幫助我們院長的協助一下那另外也請我們彭金榮、彭主委代表金管會來上台一共三位卓院長還有劉主委跟彭主委 |
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好來請卓院長 劉主委 彭主委要不要等一下那個主席 因為彭主委還沒回來我們休息時間不夠 廁所太小他還在休息 進來了嗎 還沒彭主委有在會場嗎還是 |
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那沒關係我就先開始啦那他回來就請他上來不好意思謝謝中委好院長好主委好關稅站為中美元自貿區 |
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同盟成形啊外銷呢要防洗產地內需要降產業衝擊好 來 左院長接下來我要跟你請教的事情跟各位首長請教的事情呢您可以多看一下這個簡報比較容易一目了然那我就請教一下請問您認為川普的關稅清單是目的還是手段 |
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他透過關稅是要達到他的一個對國家經濟安全的目的所以可能是一個手段好 我們看看他開出的清單當中台灣上一頁台灣是十大貿易逆差國的第六名結果排名第一的中國也被開了34%但是中國堅決反制所以他報復提到84%結果很清楚最近我們看到了除了中國之外 |
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其他的國家都可以等你90天用10%來計算往下看好 那麼中國的目的是圍堵對其他的國家只要求你來談判我們看到川普他說你中國不公平貿易啊說要跟你加徵關稅欸 達到目的啦現在中國跟他彼此一個是145啊一個是84啊但是他對其他的貿易對手國他說我要跟你加徵關稅但是如果你同意對等關稅0也可以 是不是這樣子 |
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他的邏輯是不是這樣大體上是他認為可以跟他繼續談判雙方平等互惠的原則底下對等之下可能零都可以對等 好但是有一個國家馬上跳出來說我願意零叫越南但是呢白宮的高級顧問納瓦羅說啊越南不是零就了事喔因為你們有什麼傾銷跟出國補貼涉及到非關稅欺騙您了解他說的非關稅欺騙是越南什麼事嗎 |
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181.592 |
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209.293 |
| transcript.whisperx[7].text |
所以我們零關稅同盟一旦成行唯獨中國產生的結果首先美中之間已經有關稅的壁壘美國的東西賣不到中國去中國的貨品也賣不到美國來但是中國貨品在美國市場的地位被這些去中的自由貿易同盟所取代同時美國雖然貨賣不到中國去也可以賣給這些自由貿易同盟是不是這樣子出口暢旺 |
| transcript.whisperx[8].start |
210.214 |
| transcript.whisperx[8].end |
233.29 |
| transcript.whisperx[8].text |
反而這個同盟之間貿易往來是不是更創旺 是不是這樣應該是這樣 我想好 是這樣但是呢 美國不是這樣而已喔他說 欸 你不是跟我互相領關稅而已啊你也要對中國超關稅 超高關稅而且呢 你對於特殊商品呢 要管制晶片你不能跟我美國買了 賣到中國去 是不是這樣子所以還有附帶條件 |
| transcript.whisperx[9].start |
235.873 |
| transcript.whisperx[9].end |
253.279 |
| transcript.whisperx[9].text |
所以在這種前提之下,越南縱使零關稅,一樣要嚴防中國製品透過供應鏈。台灣有這個問題,因為在川普2.0的關稅戰當中,中國就提出他的單車可以牽到哪裡?台灣、越南、馬來西亞、柬埔寨跟印度,是不是這樣子? |
| transcript.whisperx[10].start |
254.144 |
| transcript.whisperx[10].end |
269.793 |
| transcript.whisperx[10].text |
好 那請問一下台灣有沒有可能成為中國製品席產地透過供應鏈銷到美國去有沒有可能對未來的這種情勢的發展我們已經設想到在未來會嚴密的嚴控有五大方案嘛這五大方案夠不夠 |
| transcript.whisperx[11].start |
271.536 |
| transcript.whisperx[11].end |
299.101 |
| transcript.whisperx[11].text |
方案是方案 臨時變動的應該會是很多各種手段會不斷的推陳出新我跟您提醒一下 我這幾年常去越南有台商的電子廠在越南的河內弄一個組裝廠他從中國那邊把原來在中國昆山蘇州的貨供應鏈的貨都用陸運24小時送抵河內 關鍵的切面從台灣去出口當然是打著越南的Mark |
| transcript.whisperx[12].start |
299.653 |
| transcript.whisperx[12].end |
326.298 |
| transcript.whisperx[12].text |
那這裡面他這些其他在中國的供應鏈這些廠商透過入運這是美國疑慮的地方因為越南跟中國的入運的海關資料不透明但是如果說台灣的晶片賣到了檳城檳城從世界各國拿了零組件透過國際的港部跟航商美國知道你檳城馬來西亞賣給我的有多少成分來自哪裡是不是這樣子 |
| transcript.whisperx[13].start |
327.113 |
| transcript.whisperx[13].end |
334.744 |
| transcript.whisperx[13].text |
所以越南是美國最嚴格防止的台灣要繼續的嚴格防止棲產地對不對好往下看 |
| transcript.whisperx[14].start |
335.515 |
| transcript.whisperx[14].end |
360.022 |
| transcript.whisperx[14].text |
所以呢我們除此之外我們還要政策採購改善台美的貿易的差額首先在零關稅之後本來黃小玉牛肉我們就擴大進口嘛對不對那如果不受關稅影響的像軍備像火雞台灣人不吃美國的火雞肉關稅零也沒有差所以這個是屬於政策決定你會政策決定叫去買美國的火雞肉嗎會不會如果沒有那個市場 |
| transcript.whisperx[15].start |
360.902 |
| transcript.whisperx[15].end |
384.269 |
| transcript.whisperx[15].text |
那會不會增加跟美國買軍備 譬如說買F35可不可以就要考慮我們的財政跟國防的需要好 有需要 那最後哪一種剛性需求就是本來就要用天然氣都要用LNG另外呢 我們的波音客機Airbus最近華航才簽了Airbus 簽了實價這個可不可以改跟美國買 有人在討論 對不對天然氣本來跟澳洲買 可不可以考慮跟美國買 有沒有考慮 |
| transcript.whisperx[16].start |
385.484 |
| transcript.whisperx[16].end |
392.346 |
| transcript.whisperx[16].text |
我們正在盤點這些個未來可以擴大把美國當作一個世界市場這樣來購買儘管這樣子擴大採購我們來看一下但是你們現在880億他的思維呢工業製品700億農業180億是針對出口還是針對進口 |
| transcript.whisperx[17].start |
404.929 |
| transcript.whisperx[17].end |
426.296 |
| transcript.whisperx[17].text |
不是針對產業的協助產業出口遇到阻礙高關稅阻礙協助產業升級我了解協助產業向外貨產市場主要目的是針對這些出口產業遇到了高關稅的阻礙後我們要輔導他嘛但是如果是零關稅的話方向跟對象要反過來了要去思考這些會被美國進口的產品所取代的產業是不是這樣子 |
| transcript.whisperx[18].start |
427.674 |
| transcript.whisperx[18].end |
444.581 |
| transcript.whisperx[18].text |
理論上是這樣 是這樣那我們來看一下農產品好了農產品目前我們從美國進口這五大項當中黃小玉不用說牛肉不用說有沒有注意到雞肉是一個項目因為雞肉我們本國產的四成美國進口的35%但是如果說關稅從20%調下來你覺得雞肉會不會受到影響 |
| transcript.whisperx[19].start |
449.415 |
| transcript.whisperx[19].end |
463.432 |
| transcript.whisperx[19].text |
會不會最可能受到的影響就是雞肉就是怎麼樣美國的零關稅進口來的雞肉取代了本土的雞肉是不是所以除了這個之外還有什麼農產品會受到零關稅的進口影響 |
| transcript.whisperx[20].start |
466.121 |
| transcript.whisperx[20].end |
495.152 |
| transcript.whisperx[20].text |
我跟委員報告齁 就是我昨天已經問過你了我要聽聽院長的齁 院長我們現在的稻米是這樣子齁我們自產115萬公噸在WTO的配額之下呢14萬公噸以內是零關稅美國已經賣了6萬多公噸了平均銷價29元零關稅如果現在美國對我們是零關稅這29塊就是軍價但是我們自產的稻米呢是50塊一公斤所以會不會受影響如果是這樣的 |
| transcript.whisperx[21].start |
496.472 |
| transcript.whisperx[21].end |
524.544 |
| transcript.whisperx[21].text |
關稅的調整跟結果當然是受影響的所以請你指示旁邊的農業部部長剛才的880億其中的110億對120億呢180億本來是要協助出口受挫的現在要調整思維萬一零關稅要用來輔導這些受進口影響的院長是不是這樣子我們是對業者因為美國關稅調整而受影響的業者不管是 |
| transcript.whisperx[22].start |
526.231 |
| transcript.whisperx[22].end |
532.688 |
| transcript.whisperx[22].text |
出口還是進口是不是這樣如果真的受到影響我們就會在...如果受到進口影響也要輔導部長有沒有了解了 |
| transcript.whisperx[23].start |
534.962 |
| transcript.whisperx[23].end |
561.66 |
| transcript.whisperx[23].text |
我跟委員報告一百八十億是針對出口的產品那這個您剛才講這個道明的部分是未來有可能從美國進來的部分如果有任何的調整的時候的一個影響但是從農業部的角度來講因為農業的答案我昨天聽過了我現在要院長的答案除了農業產品之外還有哪四種產業是受到進口零關稅美國製品的衝擊農業產品汽車保健食品還有紡織品 |
| transcript.whisperx[24].start |
564.778 |
| transcript.whisperx[24].end |
576.768 |
| transcript.whisperx[24].text |
我從經濟部的資料上調出來在我們屏東這四種產業呢我們的保健營養食品從業人員380人我們的成衣製造外銷有200人汽車大概有2800人總共有3360個人未來如果美國銷台灣是零關稅這3360個家庭會受到影響院長 是不是指示相關部會來協助盤查跟協助家語輔導 |
| transcript.whisperx[25].start |
590.031 |
| transcript.whisperx[25].end |
611.434 |
| transcript.whisperx[25].text |
所以這個零關稅的前提是不是存在 這個還是一個考量我們不就是要追求零關稅嗎 院長從零關稅談起 不是我們去追求 零關稅談起我剛才已經說了 美國的目的叫創造一個零關稅的自由貿易同盟這是他的目的所以很可能零關稅是我們可能必要考慮的一種結果 是不是這樣子 |
| transcript.whisperx[26].start |
612.694 |
| transcript.whisperx[26].end |
632.699 |
| transcript.whisperx[26].text |
但是我們也知道經濟學者財政學者包括政治工作人員不可能在一夕之間一夕之間就是零關稅不可能一夕之間是零關稅沒有錯所以給你九十天好好想清楚來我們往下看全力爭取改善美國對等關稅我們這裡提到我們有談判關稅要幹嘛要擴大對美採購 |
| transcript.whisperx[27].start |
633.899 |
| transcript.whisperx[27].end |
634.72 |
| transcript.whisperx[27].text |
目前我們並沒有朝向這個方式在做思考 |
| transcript.whisperx[28].start |
653.461 |
| transcript.whisperx[28].end |
678.234 |
| transcript.whisperx[28].text |
現在這個階段目前我們持有的美債全世界排名第11名其實美國的立場是這樣子他的美國的債務目前單單是今年到期的9.2兆大概是美國聯邦總收入5兆的兩倍在6月底到期也有6兆多這些到期的美債對他產生什麼影響他要怎麼還 |
| transcript.whisperx[29].start |
679.394 |
| transcript.whisperx[29].end |
702.319 |
| transcript.whisperx[29].text |
他當然還啊加稅嗎現在還沒有然後呢政府減少開支政府瘦身那是明年度的事情他最大的需求就怎樣降低債息所以呢就有一個人我們來談一下齁如果對美談判川普政府要求說台幣對美國美元升值或者說央行的外匯儲備改持低利的美債你認為哪一個對台灣的經濟影響較衝擊較輕 |
| transcript.whisperx[30].start |
705.502 |
| transcript.whisperx[30].end |
716.314 |
| transcript.whisperx[30].text |
匯率的調整是一個未來可能有的你認為匯率比較影響小我們對於匯率A跟B哪一個影響比較輕我覺得我們不要在這裡談好 那我們往下看 |
| transcript.whisperx[31].start |
718.82 |
| transcript.whisperx[31].end |
738.608 |
| transcript.whisperx[31].text |
待會我要請那個彭主委再來因為昨天我已經問過總裁了好美國的白宮經濟顧問委員會有個主將米倫他去年11月發表一個用戶指南叫重組全國貿易體系裡面他提到說關稅本身不是目的而是手段他在7號的時候接受採訪講了五個點第一他不接受報復 |
| transcript.whisperx[32].start |
739.861 |
| transcript.whisperx[32].end |
767.098 |
| transcript.whisperx[32].text |
第二你要打開市場不能有不公平的行為第三呢他要各國提高國防支出和針對美國軍購大概這個我們都沒問題第四他說要投資美國這我們也做了他說第五直接捐還給美國財政部這什麼意思這什麼意思好大家來猜猜看往下看敏倫的意思是這樣他說他要要求大量持有美債的這些盟友貿易對手他說請你跟我 |
| transcript.whisperx[33].start |
768.298 |
| transcript.whisperx[33].end |
780.45 |
| transcript.whisperx[33].text |
換新債的時候跟我買超長期的50年的或100年的低利了但是我們的外匯如果去買這種超長期的美債影響到我們的流動性這種沒有市場 |
| transcript.whisperx[34].start |
781.479 |
| transcript.whisperx[34].end |
810.052 |
| transcript.whisperx[34].text |
對不對 那遇到了我們需要去調節匯率的時候就會受到限制米倫說沒關係我給你一個買權給你一個快速換回美元現金的官方渠道叫做report類似swap的一種回購機制如果你真的需要錢跟我掉頭順就好了結果呢 他認為一旦接受這個條件您知道結果是什麼會形成一個以美元為主的去中的準金融聯盟這是米倫的設想好 我往下走 |
| transcript.whisperx[35].start |
811.004 |
| transcript.whisperx[35].end |
836.709 |
| transcript.whisperx[35].text |
米倫的方案我算給你看他說台灣的外匯存本比加進5800億如果我們合理的外匯準備是4000到4500億我們可能有1000億的美金可以在美債到期之後改持低利的長期美債假設這些美債按照現在美債的利息4%來算我們假設算2%我們一年大概會讓利讓20億美元的利息大概折合台幣600億到660億 |
| transcript.whisperx[36].start |
838.849 |
| transcript.whisperx[36].end |
840.013 |
| transcript.whisperx[36].text |
請問601到661有沒有小於現在的880億 |
| transcript.whisperx[37].start |
844.209 |
| transcript.whisperx[37].end |
873.305 |
| transcript.whisperx[37].text |
有沒有小問題 數學問題嘛哪個比較大這個我們還在精算我們沒有辦法在這裡跟委員做這樣的答案我了解 你要想一下我要說的是說跟美國的談判有各種的可能性了解他們的談判背後的這些幕僚這些政策的思維各種的可能才會出現說連我們的外匯儲備的美債都有可能是一個談判的籌碼剛剛總裁說了籌碼 對不對剛剛你跟邱委員講了嘛籌碼跟準備不是一樣嗎好 往下走 |
| transcript.whisperx[38].start |
874.079 |
| transcript.whisperx[38].end |
897.895 |
| transcript.whisperx[38].text |
所以如果我們拿到了超長期的低利美債我們拿到什麼美國現在30年期的美債只要每掉1%它就可以淨賺20%對台外來講我雖然拿了1000億掛個洞把它買起來但是當我需要的時候我還是可以短期的美元的流通需求我可以跟美國的央行免費去調度也避開了短期的利率風險 |
| transcript.whisperx[39].start |
900.066 |
| transcript.whisperx[39].end |
908.089 |
| transcript.whisperx[39].text |
院長 您旁邊是總裁另外那邊是主委後面還有一個金融專家是我們彭主委請他們三個回去研究看看好不好 |
| transcript.whisperx[40].start |
909.856 |
| transcript.whisperx[40].end |
934.823 |
| transcript.whisperx[40].text |
我們過去對於美債的投資也有發生過不好的一個結果好請你研究我最後要做結論了昨天今天美國股市股匯債全部解體川普的任務川普任務有兩個一個是削減赤字一個是增加就業增加就業要增加投資跟減稅改善他中西部的弱勢選民削減赤字要解決貿易逆差他對中國的不公平貿易他用了高單位稅來解決之後 |
| transcript.whisperx[41].start |
935.37 |
| transcript.whisperx[41].end |
959.079 |
| transcript.whisperx[41].text |
他現在剩下什麼問題剩下財政支出的問題要減少負債有了一個零關稅的自由貿易同盟之後他的貿易逆差渴望解決但是遇下來的問題我有三個事情要請院長承諾第一請盤點消美主要產品上游供應鏈中有沒有含有中國製品請迅速的提出調整對策可以嗎 |
| transcript.whisperx[42].start |
960.45 |
| transcript.whisperx[42].end |
960.87 |
| transcript.whisperx[42].text |
這個也會做 |