| IVOD_ID |
160069 |
| IVOD_URL |
https://ivod.ly.gov.tw/Play/Clip/1M/160069 |
| 日期 |
2025-04-10 |
| 會議資料.會議代碼 |
委員會-11-3-22-6 |
| 會議資料.會議代碼:str |
第11屆第3會期教育及文化委員會第6次全體委員會議 |
| 會議資料.屆 |
11 |
| 會議資料.會期 |
3 |
| 會議資料.會次 |
6 |
| 會議資料.種類 |
委員會 |
| 會議資料.委員會代碼[0] |
22 |
| 會議資料.委員會代碼:str[0] |
教育及文化委員會 |
| 會議資料.標題 |
第11屆第3會期教育及文化委員會第6次全體委員會議 |
| 影片種類 |
Clip |
| 開始時間 |
2025-04-10T10:34:50+08:00 |
| 結束時間 |
2025-04-10T10:43:53+08:00 |
| 影片長度 |
00:09:03 |
| 支援功能[0] |
ai-transcript |
| video_url |
https://ivod-lyvod.cdn.hinet.net/vod_1/_definst_/mp4:1MClips/127fafa562dc9712e5739b766a414ec1f179c558939ff98972c2a43b2ce79c5077c192756c22988b5ea18f28b6918d91.mp4/playlist.m3u8 |
| 委員名稱 |
葉元之 |
| 委員發言時間 |
10:34:50 - 10:43:53 |
| 會議時間 |
2025-04-10T09:00:00+08:00 |
| 會議名稱 |
立法院第11屆第3會期教育及文化委員會第6次全體委員會議（事由：邀請中央研究院院長廖俊智列席報告業務概況，並備質詢。） |
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黃興坤副院長經濟所的所長好請廖院長跟副院長還有所長院長副院長還有所長好因為我們 |
| transcript.whisperx[1].start |
20.928 |
| transcript.whisperx[1].end |
45.896 |
| transcript.whisperx[1].text |
中研院有發布一個2025年的台灣經濟情勢總展望其實這段時間最近幾天大家對於經濟是最關心的那中研院又是我們應該算是我們研究的最高能量的機關所以當然很想要來了解一下我們政府或經濟部到底有沒有就這一波川普關稅所對台灣的影響來跟中研院請教我不知道院長有嗎 |
| transcript.whisperx[2].start |
47.174 |
| transcript.whisperx[2].end |
56.314 |
| transcript.whisperx[2].text |
中央院這方面是有相當多的實例我知道那個現在因為我們現在政府推出了很多政策嘛那事先有沒有來跟比如說 |
| transcript.whisperx[3].start |
57.911 |
| transcript.whisperx[3].end |
84.738 |
| transcript.whisperx[3].text |
中研院這邊不管是經濟所所長啊或者是彭新坤副院長這邊來請教說我們應該怎麼因應這一波經濟危機有嗎我想這個只要是政府單位來跟中研院的個別研究同仁來這個進行磋商的話不會經過院方所以我不會知道那有沒有跟那個副院長來問一下你的意見目前沒有沒有是不是那有沒有跟經濟所所長 |
| transcript.whisperx[4].start |
86.367 |
| transcript.whisperx[4].end |
94.995 |
| transcript.whisperx[4].text |
張俊仁所長來詢問目前我也沒有也都沒有是不是好那這樣子我就來請教一下利用這個機會來跟大家請教一下第一個 |
| transcript.whisperx[5].start |
97.6 |
| transcript.whisperx[5].end |
123.889 |
| transcript.whisperx[5].text |
本來這份報告裡面它這是去年12月出刊的當時對於我們的GDP的年增率的預估值是3.1%那我想請問一下副院長現在因為我也看過您最近發表的文章去年11月到今年去年11月有去做演講那今年1月也有演講實際上你都有提到川普當選之後有一個很不確定性好像您也有提到 |
| transcript.whisperx[6].start |
124.429 |
| transcript.whisperx[6].end |
129.637 |
| transcript.whisperx[6].text |
那現在已經很明確了他本來是要關稅是要加到32%但是現在暫緩90天先10%那你的預估對於我們現在那個GDP的影響是怎麼樣 |
| transcript.whisperx[7].start |
136.202 |
| transcript.whisperx[7].end |
157.419 |
| transcript.whisperx[7].text |
非常感謝葉委員有注意到我的那個演講不過目前非常非常難預料我想我現在是瞬息萬變那我會覺得去年的預測3.1是不可能達到不可能嘛所以你覺得會下修多少一定會下修那至於會下修多少我要觀察這個未來這個幾個月的時間 |
| transcript.whisperx[8].start |
163.224 |
| transcript.whisperx[8].end |
170.792 |
| transcript.whisperx[8].text |
謝謝那我再請問一下副院長因為現在總統的講法是說要用零關稅的這個基礎去跟美國談判 |
| transcript.whisperx[9].start |
172.008 |
| transcript.whisperx[9].end |
200.797 |
| transcript.whisperx[9].text |
那他的想法是這樣那請問一下您支持這樣零關稅去談這樣的一個做法嗎報告葉委員這個零關稅不是關鍵因為我們的法定關稅非常低了已經不到2%現在問題的關鍵是在非關稅貿易障礙對 有哪些包括像這個進口的配額包括檢疫包括像我們的基因的食品這些我們政府的規定都被美國在挑剔 |
| transcript.whisperx[10].start |
202.097 |
| transcript.whisperx[10].end |
225.772 |
| transcript.whisperx[10].text |
甚至是我們的外匯市場的人為干預這個在美國的報告裡面都有提出來所以你的意思是說總統講的零關稅因為他今天才投書外媒你就覺得他講的不是重點重點應該是你剛剛講的那些零關稅其實對我們大部分的產品已經很低了只有少數像汽車有點偏高還是17.5 |
| transcript.whisperx[11].start |
227.193 |
| transcript.whisperx[11].end |
250.629 |
| transcript.whisperx[11].text |
像保健食品30%有點偏高那是大部分的進口產品都非常非常低關鍵是在所以我們拿零關稅去跟他談他應該是不會買單啦應該是副院長剛剛講的那些貿易非貿易障礙嘛要去把它消除之後美國可能才會給我們降低關稅你的意思是這樣喔對那我希望說你可以跟總統建議一下 |
| transcript.whisperx[12].start |
252.134 |
| transcript.whisperx[12].end |
271.668 |
| transcript.whisperx[12].text |
那再來就是我們看這個GDP一定會下修嘛那我們看下一頁這個是也是經濟所前一年12月公佈的CPI物價指數是2.02那請問一下問一下所長好了你覺得我們的CPI會增加增加 |
| transcript.whisperx[13].start |
273.301 |
| transcript.whisperx[13].end |
291.61 |
| transcript.whisperx[13].text |
我們的CPI事實上這個是因為這是去年12月的預估啦那因為當時大家也不知道說川普會提高關稅到32%嘛那經濟所會重新預估一下嗎會的那你覺得應該他的走勢會怎麼樣主要的問題還是在這個 |
| transcript.whisperx[14].start |
294.481 |
| transcript.whisperx[14].end |
315.695 |
| transcript.whisperx[14].text |
水電的價格我是說關稅的影響因為川普的關稅政策會不會影響到我們國內的物價我是經濟所負責的梁淑君我想從關稅角度來看的話如果我們出口會下降的話而且因為對這個出口衰退的預期會導致資本外流 |
| transcript.whisperx[15].start |
316.455 |
| transcript.whisperx[15].end |
332.788 |
| transcript.whisperx[15].text |
這兩個因素都會有對我們新台幣貶值造成壓力那如果是這樣從這個角度來看的話確實會造成輸入性通膨那在這個基礎上原本物價的壓力就挺高的那有可能會讓物價有更上升的壓力 |
| transcript.whisperx[16].start |
333.75 |
| transcript.whisperx[16].end |
348.616 |
| transcript.whisperx[16].text |
那現在有辦法預估嗎?還是不確定?我們現在因為就是這個關稅的幅度還不確定然後執行的長度也不確定我們修正的方向應該是會還是維持在二以上但是具體幅度現在還需要觀察 |
| transcript.whisperx[17].start |
349.276 |
| transcript.whisperx[17].end |
375.843 |
| transcript.whisperx[17].text |
還有觀察 謝謝接下來再問一下匯率這是也是經濟所的預測也是去年12月公佈的是預測說美元匯率大概是32.51那是不是也來預測一下因為川普這個關稅政策就我剛才提到的兩個因素都是會讓匯率有貶值的壓力所以原來的預測應該是有一點高估了有點高估 |
| transcript.whisperx[18].start |
377.648 |
| transcript.whisperx[18].end |
402.275 |
| transcript.whisperx[18].text |
我特別來問這些問題就是要說因為我們看我們不管是所長副所長副院長當然院長是統領所有中研院大家其實對經濟都很了解而且也都非常關心所以如果中研院可以主動出席雖然我們現在剛剛問起來好像行政院或經貿辦公室並沒有來問你們意見開會沒有找你們但我覺得如果中研院既然我們有這麼豐沛的研究能量 |
| transcript.whisperx[19].start |
403.095 |
| transcript.whisperx[19].end |
428.519 |
| transcript.whisperx[19].text |
主動出擊第一位政府給他們正確的方向這可以幫助台灣度過經濟危機那接下來再來我們來看一下這是前一段時間引起了一個風波那個經濟所還有那個副院長可以請回這應該是國建所這個一個生物醫學科技科學研究所之前一個風波就是有民眾反映 |
| transcript.whisperx[20].start |
430.216 |
| transcript.whisperx[20].end |
453.221 |
| transcript.whisperx[20].text |
忽然間有中研院的人找他們說要抽血檢查而且指定小朋友所以大家非常的害怕那這個當時是公文公文是這個我想請問一下為什麼會發生這樣的事情因為任何的現在家長對於小朋友都很寶貝忽然有人上門指定說要抽小朋友的血大家都會非常害怕這個事情為什麼會這樣我想這是個誤會我們請那個所長來解釋 |
| transcript.whisperx[21].start |
458.646 |
| transcript.whisperx[21].end |
461.509 |
| transcript.whisperx[21].text |
委員好 我是生意所所長陳盈莊很簡短的跟您報告一下這是一個國建署的委託計畫基本上是針對全台灣的民眾來做調查所以沒有集中在小朋友上面那基本上它有一個很特別的抽樣式全台灣會抽出八十個里八十個里每一個里還會再抽出十個家庭 |
| transcript.whisperx[22].start |
479.205 |
| transcript.whisperx[22].end |
484.129 |
| transcript.whisperx[22].text |
那他們在做家訪的時候呢會先寫一封信問說願不願意受訪然後呢當時訪問的時候也會把信帶去如果他們不願意受訪那這個事情就會結束如果會訪問的話也會在當時在安排下面訪問的時間所以實際上這個可能是一個誤會這是一個誤會 |
| transcript.whisperx[23].start |
501.757 |
| transcript.whisperx[23].end |
520.908 |
| transcript.whisperx[23].text |
但當時媒體人爆了蠻大的因為那既然有誤會我覺得中研院我們都相信中研院不會作亂七八糟事情啦可是如果說是有誤會造成人家心情恐慌可能要思考一下那個流程是不是在哪個地方有疏失啦我覺得大家可能再思考一下是 我們有檢查SOP 謝謝OK 謝謝好 謝謝葉元之委員院長請回讓我們休息五分鐘 |
| transcript.whisperx[24].start |
533.376 |
| transcript.whisperx[24].end |
534.438 |
| transcript.whisperx[24].text |
有發言的感覺 |