| IVOD_ID |
160043 |
| IVOD_URL |
https://ivod.ly.gov.tw/Play/Clip/1M/160043 |
| 日期 |
2025-04-10 |
| 會議資料.會議代碼 |
委員會-11-3-35-7 |
| 會議資料.會議代碼:str |
第11屆第3會期外交及國防委員會第7次全體委員會議 |
| 會議資料.屆 |
11 |
| 會議資料.會期 |
3 |
| 會議資料.會次 |
7 |
| 會議資料.種類 |
委員會 |
| 會議資料.委員會代碼[0] |
35 |
| 會議資料.委員會代碼:str[0] |
外交及國防委員會 |
| 會議資料.標題 |
第11屆第3會期外交及國防委員會第7次全體委員會議 |
| 影片種類 |
Clip |
| 開始時間 |
2025-04-10T09:43:22+08:00 |
| 結束時間 |
2025-04-10T09:53:11+08:00 |
| 影片長度 |
00:09:49 |
| 支援功能[0] |
ai-transcript |
| video_url |
https://ivod-lyvod.cdn.hinet.net/vod_1/_definst_/mp4:1MClips/127fafa562dc97126827f0869172d91af9600c3f6b437ac2dffdecc4c49be5a7f2ef179986d190cb5ea18f28b6918d91.mp4/playlist.m3u8 |
| 委員名稱 |
陳永康 |
| 委員發言時間 |
09:43:22 - 09:53:11 |
| 會議時間 |
2025-04-10T09:00:00+08:00 |
| 會議名稱 |
立法院第11屆第3會期外交及國防委員會第7次全體委員會議（事由：邀請外交部部長、經濟部次長、大陸委員會副主任委員、財政部次長、國家發展委員會副主任委員、行政院經貿談判辦公室副總談判代表、中央銀行副總裁報告「美國開啟全球貿易制裁及與中共競合下，我外交經貿戰略佈局及因應」，並備質詢。） |
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| transcript.whisperx[0].start |
0.35 |
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7.243 |
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有请经济部请外交部好了外交部先外交部领部长先经济部稍后谢谢 |
| transcript.whisperx[1].start |
13.023 |
| transcript.whisperx[1].end |
36.861 |
| transcript.whisperx[1].text |
部長早安委員長在這個國際動態變化的情勢裡面唯一不變的就是持續變化因此對於我們政府對於這個有關關稅的挑戰如何因應這其實就是一個大挑戰因為我們沒有辦法做預應所以我們在這邊提出來那如何預應呢預應是full spectrum是全面向的 |
| transcript.whisperx[2].start |
37.421 |
| transcript.whisperx[2].end |
54.885 |
| transcript.whisperx[2].text |
他没有办法对单一问题做出细节因此我在今天拜读了经济部还有外交部还有其他部会的文件以后那有些东西对我们来讲是一种互动学习有些部分我用下面的方式提供一个建言请参考 |
| transcript.whisperx[3].start |
60.125 |
| transcript.whisperx[3].end |
81.394 |
| transcript.whisperx[3].text |
這個根據您的這個報告文內啊就是4月6號總統向國人提出的五項應變政策以及我們提出的具體方法啊我這邊這個文字就不足以再走一遍我把它列出來提供出來給大家看一下這張圖啊就是我們解析啊強權競合的作業流程圖 |
| transcript.whisperx[4].start |
82.984 |
| transcript.whisperx[4].end |
93.958 |
| transcript.whisperx[4].text |
川普就任以来比较过去他从45任再加上拜登46任到现在47任他所有运用的方法手段产生的巨变都在这里面 |
| transcript.whisperx[5].start |
96.519 |
| transcript.whisperx[5].end |
121.594 |
| transcript.whisperx[5].text |
所以如果你只是用经济问题用军事问题用外交问题你是切开来个别谈你可以看出来他前面提出的关税以及后面所出的这个图里面不管他的对等公平惩罚两层四层六层八层这是随他讲的九十天十五天十天随他讲这个都在变所以我们如果没有一个long term strategy |
| transcript.whisperx[6].start |
122.045 |
| transcript.whisperx[6].end |
140.381 |
| transcript.whisperx[6].text |
把外交經濟軍事政治面涵蓋進來像這個圖表列出來的退出國際組織廢除不合理的條約關閉領事館持續貿易戰晶片法案分裂市場脫不脫鉤今天裡面講的中美競合 |
| transcript.whisperx[7].start |
144.94 |
| transcript.whisperx[7].end |
157.323 |
| transcript.whisperx[7].text |
這是competition跟cooperation才產生的這個competition那就表示他不會脫鉤了嘛所以在這個情勢判斷裡面他很多在談可以把底線露出來但是明天又變化了 |
| transcript.whisperx[8].start |
158.246 |
| transcript.whisperx[8].end |
183.989 |
| transcript.whisperx[8].text |
所以中美貿易對話他是不會斷的那美國跟所有國家的對話也不會斷但是為什麼先出狠招這叫引蛇出洞先看你們有什麼招然後我再把你們做區隔區分所以他巴拿馬的問題叫他退出一帶一路但高層領導直接我跟某某是好朋友雖然今天常態性的行政對話中斷元首可以對話 |
| transcript.whisperx[9].start |
185.27 |
| transcript.whisperx[9].end |
202.763 |
| transcript.whisperx[9].text |
对完话以后明天就可以变化退出气候协定退出世界卫生组织退出人权组织退出教科文退出UNESCO随他讲同一个时间法律施压同时跟菲律宾跟日本军事演习 |
| transcript.whisperx[10].start |
204.312 |
| transcript.whisperx[10].end |
232.027 |
| transcript.whisperx[10].text |
表態所以這個scope就顯示出來了如果我們沒有一個完整的戰略觀而只是針對單一問題做反應你永遠在react可是你的醜頭的籌碼跟你的時間是有限的90天內要把所有東西分析出來去對口能夠排序我們面臨是一個挑戰所以同樣的我們的行政院排出了這個條款這是正面的 |
| transcript.whisperx[11].start |
233.083 |
| transcript.whisperx[11].end |
259.765 |
| transcript.whisperx[11].text |
我们也肯定的但是从负面来看你的风险在哪里我给一个方法论美国开启全球贸易制裁与中共竞合下我外交布局机因应没有预应这一次大家看到了台积电的特质正好把地缘经济地缘政治地缘战略整个结合一起你看这个图里面这个供应链是互为上下层而不是可以剪断切割的 |
| transcript.whisperx[12].start |
262.489 |
| transcript.whisperx[12].end |
282.526 |
| transcript.whisperx[12].text |
所以地緣經濟你考慮的人口位置貿易源頭產業鏈路地緣戰略這裡面美方考慮的如果海峽起衝突台積電會不會被摧毀全世界會不會斷斷的晶圓的來源所以軍事戰略威澤嚇阻維護利益另外地緣政治國家利益合縱連橫雙軌雙標所以雙軌雙標就是在 |
| transcript.whisperx[13].start |
286.84 |
| transcript.whisperx[13].end |
314.898 |
| transcript.whisperx[13].text |
这个川普总统里面他用的很厉害的就是dual strategy double standard我跟不同的人不同的标准不同的谈但是呢我可以把它交换所以从这个里面我们看出一个结果我们需要有一个国安战略国家安全战略的引领全民群策群力形塑寒藏牵动邻国的利益营造区域平衡巩固贸易源头强化产业的链路多元生产生存的缝隙 |
| transcript.whisperx[14].start |
316.004 |
| transcript.whisperx[14].end |
343.548 |
| transcript.whisperx[14].text |
以有利的地缘的政治经济科技环境进而善于外交的布局精进军事能量要运用以小牵大虚实联动正齐相生的合众联盟多轨并进的策略维护国家安全利益所以我们这次看到这个英法德国对于这个这个贸易的关税的问题跟这个所谓的西班牙跟意大利是不同步的 |
| transcript.whisperx[15].start |
344.605 |
| transcript.whisperx[15].end |
363.475 |
| transcript.whisperx[15].text |
我們看到了一個什麼同路不同道同道不同德同德不同心同心不同人同人不同調所以不要用口號來喊同路人根本不重要太low end了你去看他的價值觀去看他的法律所以我們今天尊重的是我們講的民主 |
| transcript.whisperx[16].start |
364.434 |
| transcript.whisperx[16].end |
384.055 |
| transcript.whisperx[16].text |
人权法治可是在这个国际变动的局势里面这三个它的优秀不一样它不是同步重视的所以基于这个考虑我们需要一个长期的战略跨部会的沟通协调这非常重要那刚刚讲经过多元管道这是一个正面看法可是feedback以后的如何fusing |
| transcript.whisperx[17].start |
384.781 |
| transcript.whisperx[17].end |
394.16 |
| transcript.whisperx[17].text |
要收敛这是另外一个挑战因此我把今天做一个最后的结论就是外交部在提出针对总统五项里面有八个做法 |
| transcript.whisperx[18].start |
395.051 |
| transcript.whisperx[18].end |
417.189 |
| transcript.whisperx[18].text |
可是呢你必須要有主觀客觀為觀宏觀樂觀悲觀前瞻反思同時要考慮到這是政府還是政黨的政策這是動態淨碳輿論學術經濟國安是個案還是通案是科技還是醫療今天還講到藥品的問題是全面還是局部長期短期所以你會發現產生多少變化量啊 |
| transcript.whisperx[19].start |
421.595 |
| transcript.whisperx[19].end |
433.605 |
| transcript.whisperx[19].text |
512个变化量所以当你分析的参数参考参数越多我们犯下错误决策的几率就越低不是谁绝对对谁绝对对的错而是我们现在要做 |
| transcript.whisperx[20].start |
434.79 |
| transcript.whisperx[20].end |
459.121 |
| transcript.whisperx[20].text |
避险为先 持有保态 要长期规划 统筹执行所以这里面cover到了目的方法手段你设定的目标 选择的方法 运用的手段包括对美关系 两岸关系 国际协商 内外折冲你是要金援支撑台湾 你要确保能源你要社会的全任性 你要国防的战力强所以在这个里面它已经超出了单一 |
| transcript.whisperx[21].start |
459.901 |
| transcript.whisperx[21].end |
487.693 |
| transcript.whisperx[21].text |
外交經濟或者是它是一個完整的國安考量我特別用這個圖像請這個部長做一個參考部長請您指導好 這個委員的高見真的我受益良多特別是把八項具體的做法一一對應那麼確實我們有一個總和外交那搭配總統他的大戰略今天的這一個彭博社的這一個文章很清楚這個路徑圖 |
| transcript.whisperx[22].start |
489.019 |
| transcript.whisperx[22].end |
499.44 |
| transcript.whisperx[22].text |
所以川普我們要對齊他他在講什麼我們要聽的對再來我們事實上要去對接他 |
| transcript.whisperx[23].start |
501.274 |
| transcript.whisperx[23].end |
522.98 |
| transcript.whisperx[23].text |
比如他的貿易政策他的投資政策他的所有的政策都有長年的主張跟最近的宣布再來我覺得就是到對應你要有措施所以這個從對齊對接到對應那我們才能夠去這個就算是一個國際的賽局那因為美中的抗衡 |
| transcript.whisperx[24].start |
524.252 |
| transcript.whisperx[24].end |
550.104 |
| transcript.whisperx[24].text |
所以使這一次對我們有威脅也有機會因為紅色供應鏈跟美國會是兩套不同的系統而台灣在所謂的非紅的供應鏈裡面我們有不可或缺的角色而這個供應鏈不只是純粹從所謂的投資或者是貿易它也是個安全的戰略它甚至是一個高科技在包括未來的AI跟晶片上面的一個 |
| transcript.whisperx[25].start |
551.175 |
| transcript.whisperx[25].end |
570.394 |
| transcript.whisperx[25].text |
美中的抗衡所以台灣呢我們怎麼樣去對應包括美國包括中國包括其他各國這個就是我們剛剛委員提到的一個戰略我們會根據委員的這個方法論好好再來檢視我們現在做的然後予以做必要的這一個增補或者是調整 |
| transcript.whisperx[26].start |
573.126 |
| transcript.whisperx[26].end |
585.146 |
| transcript.whisperx[26].text |
謝謝部長我們也會全力支持我們國家對外的政策那麼在這個情勢下就是說資源有限時間有限我們整合作業是一個非常重要的以上提出建言謝謝部長 |