| IVOD_ID |
159974 |
| IVOD_URL |
https://ivod.ly.gov.tw/Play/Clip/1M/159974 |
| 日期 |
2025-04-09 |
| 會議資料.會議代碼 |
委員會-11-3-35-6 |
| 會議資料.會議代碼:str |
第11屆第3會期外交及國防委員會第6次全體委員會議 |
| 會議資料.屆 |
11 |
| 會議資料.會期 |
3 |
| 會議資料.會次 |
6 |
| 會議資料.種類 |
委員會 |
| 會議資料.委員會代碼[0] |
35 |
| 會議資料.委員會代碼:str[0] |
外交及國防委員會 |
| 會議資料.標題 |
第11屆第3會期外交及國防委員會第6次全體委員會議 |
| 影片種類 |
Clip |
| 開始時間 |
2025-04-09T11:39:05+08:00 |
| 結束時間 |
2025-04-09T11:47:00+08:00 |
| 影片長度 |
00:07:55 |
| 支援功能[0] |
ai-transcript |
| video_url |
https://ivod-lyvod.cdn.hinet.net/vod_1/_definst_/mp4:1MClips/984603a5a250cdcec4b36ef873d95faaeafc78fb10225fff2eb6e21b32d8c6be2c120f4751f248e95ea18f28b6918d91.mp4/playlist.m3u8 |
| 委員名稱 |
李坤城 |
| 委員發言時間 |
11:39:05 - 11:47:00 |
| 會議時間 |
2025-04-09T09:00:00+08:00 |
| 會議名稱 |
立法院第11屆第3會期外交及國防委員會第6次全體委員會議【含秘密會議】（事由：邀請國家安全局局長蔡明彥率相關情報機關首長提出「國家情報工作暨國家安全局業務報告」，並備質詢。） |
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謝謝主席 我們請國安局蔡局長不好意思 要不要先 局長先喝口水再上來 沒關係好 謝謝李委員局長好這個 本席請教一下在今年的4月1號這個中國有一個聯合演訓但是它並沒有公布代號那當然有人說 那是不是漁人節的關係所以它沒有公布代號 |
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| transcript.whisperx[1].text |
但是他在4月2號他就有一個海峽雷霆2025A的一個演習那請教一下局長就是說這個4月1號的沒有公佈代號您知道說他的用意在哪裡嗎有人是解讀說是這一個是不是他的演習軍演已經常態化了所以也不用代號了 |
| transcript.whisperx[2].start |
48.372 |
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75.273 |
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基本上我們剛剛也跟其他委員在說明了覺得這次的演習比較像是把一些例行性的演習來做一個整合也是指4月1號還是4月2號這次演習整個看起來是這樣因為一般來講假如是一個規劃比較完整的演習的話可能在演習的第一個時間點就有一個演習代號出來但這一次在第一天並沒有但它已經達到了演習的規模但到了第二天才又來了一個演習的代號來延續第一天的演習 |
| transcript.whisperx[3].start |
75.933 |
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98.994 |
| transcript.whisperx[3].text |
那這樣的做法在以前比較少看到局長你是認為說他這次演習是比較衝突的我是有這個意思那為什麼會衝突來舉辦這個演習他的用意在哪裡因為在時間點上我剛才跟其他委員在報告因為時間點事實上離3月13號賴總統的國安高層會議已經隔了有兩三個禮拜的時間 |
| transcript.whisperx[4].start |
99.815 |
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128.825 |
| transcript.whisperx[4].text |
那那個時間點有比較特殊的是美國國防部有所謂的在印太的戰略佈局會有比較壓制中共維護區域現狀的這些規劃那可能讓中共覺得他必須要有些反制的動作那再加上當時是因為美國的國防部部長那個Hexes他剛好在關島日本跟菲律賓做訪問所以幾乎就在美國防長離開日本之後這個演習就啟動了所以我們感覺上演習的規劃上似乎沒有過去那麼的 |
| transcript.whisperx[5].start |
130.305 |
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153.813 |
| transcript.whisperx[5].text |
所以那如果這樣子的話他的演習是演給台灣看還是演給美國看?我想他的演習不只是演給外界看也在演給內部看因為時間上也包括到他內部正在整肅東部戰區的相關的重要的將領那透過這種演習對內還是有一些功能在政治的功能一方面讓軍心可以比較集中在演訓而不要去在乎這些政治動盪 |
| transcript.whisperx[6].start |
154.893 |
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175.482 |
| transcript.whisperx[6].text |
或政治清洗整肅的議題那另一方面也可以讓外界可以知道說中國即使內部在進行政治整肅軍隊在進行清洗但是他還是有能力來組織這種有相當規模的軍事演習所以在考量的面向非常的多所以是國安局對於這個這個4月1號跟4月2號的這個演習的整個概括的評估就對了 |
| transcript.whisperx[7].start |
177.824 |
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198.765 |
| transcript.whisperx[7].text |
我問一下你們報告的第一頁其實寫的說現在川普政府的政策就是美國優先然後以集中資源對中國的威脅那我請教一下像這次川普的關稅戰是不是也是屬於集中資源對中國威脅的一個策略方法 |
| transcript.whisperx[8].start |
199.469 |
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224.815 |
| transcript.whisperx[8].text |
因為在看他的相關的政策規劃背後的一些思維來講那我不知道委員有沒有注意到在歐洲地區那大概美國現在是希望歐洲盟友能夠更負擔起歐洲安全的責任但在中東地區可能也是希望盡快的穩定當地的局面那以便更多的資源可以投注到印太地區來而且假如委員注意到美國的相關的國防資源的配置印太地區也 |
| transcript.whisperx[9].start |
225.695 |
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246.682 |
| transcript.whisperx[9].text |
會是未來的一個關注的重點所以用這樣子的方式來理解跟推論的話可以理解到可能美國對於中共在安全或戰略面對美國構成的挑戰他們非常的重視而做一些比較全盤的規劃美國現在最常用的一個字叫Pacing Challenge就是一個中共是一個不斷迫近的一個挑戰跟威脅 |
| transcript.whisperx[10].start |
248.002 |
| transcript.whisperx[10].end |
255.01 |
| transcript.whisperx[10].text |
所以關稅戰是不是也要...關稅的部分也是我想美國現在加總對中國的關稅已經超過100%以上了等一下12點就要開正式生效了加起來就超過104% |
| transcript.whisperx[11].start |
262.719 |
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283.212 |
| transcript.whisperx[11].text |
我剛要跟委員報告的是不管從安全戰略面或是從經貿面因為美國除了有關稅以外另外還有小院高牆的意思就是針對高科技的管制出口以及避免中國大陸產品的洗產地相關的一個規劃所以整體解讀起來會覺得對中有相當程度的針對性 |
| transcript.whisperx[12].start |
284.133 |
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308.363 |
| transcript.whisperx[12].text |
那接下來會不會繼續影響到這個中國的經濟因為我看你們的報告上面有寫到說中國內部的這個經濟社會形勢是嚴峻的這個經濟成長率有可能會下調那當然經過關稅戰之後有可能再往下再調那也就是說他的這個經濟持續不振那甚至年輕人的這個失業率一樣是非常高那有沒有一種可能性就是說中國因為受到這個關稅戰的挑戰 |
| transcript.whisperx[13].start |
310.124 |
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320.035 |
| transcript.whisperx[13].text |
然後經濟受到影響那內部的這一個不管是民族主義或是軍事力量要抬頭會把這個焦點由內轉外又對台灣造成影響 |
| transcript.whisperx[14].start |
320.888 |
| transcript.whisperx[14].end |
342.333 |
| transcript.whisperx[14].text |
對 不能排除任何的可能性那委員剛剛講到經濟的問題確實也是我們在關注的重點因為剛剛我們在夜報裡面有提到國際的各方面的金融機構對於中共的整體的經濟成長率估算大概今年只有4%到4.6%比中共官方想要預期達到5%你這個是在關稅戰之前說出來的 |
| transcript.whisperx[15].start |
344.233 |
| transcript.whisperx[15].end |
360.13 |
| transcript.whisperx[15].text |
那現在假如是關稅站再加租上來的話也有國際的機構在評估假如美國的關稅對中國有到六成的話60%的話那中共的GDP受到影響可能會有2%到3%之多那更何況現在的關稅已經加高到那會不會把這個壓力由內轉外 |
| transcript.whisperx[16].start |
362.832 |
| transcript.whisperx[16].end |
386.685 |
| transcript.whisperx[16].text |
不能排除任何的可能性當然有兩種可能一種可能是因為經濟不好他必須要聚焦在國內的經濟問題那不要在節外生吃但是另外一種可能性就在於說也有可能利用這個機會來轉移內部的壓力透過一些外部的一個情勢的升高的操作那這部分我們會嚴密的來注意因為退論歸退論最重要的還是回到我們國安或國防部 |
| transcript.whisperx[17].start |
387.225 |
| transcript.whisperx[17].end |
406.101 |
| transcript.whisperx[17].text |
對於中共相關軍事動態的聯合情監偵的能量能夠把它發揮那一有任何動態我們就可以預警的話就可以避免到剛剛委員所擔心發生的一個狀況好 我最後一個問題請教一下這一個 等一下請移民署署長是不是一起上來就是說現在有有這個有三個 |
| transcript.whisperx[18].start |
406.681 |
| transcript.whisperx[18].end |
407.762 |
| transcript.whisperx[18].text |
我們也是從公開的語情裡面來掌握 |
| transcript.whisperx[19].start |
425.174 |
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451.162 |
| transcript.whisperx[19].text |
所以跟我看得到是一樣的就是說那但是也有眾說紛紜有的說他馬上就被接走了安置得很好啊那個也是公開的語言所以你們沒有掌握到就對了沒有掌握到那在局長這邊有掌握到訊息嗎我們後續再繼續來處理好那我再問一下移民署署長那現在還有沒有這一種有居留權的中配因為違反這個武統言論那還在處理當中的 |
| transcript.whisperx[20].start |
453.202 |
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474.759 |
| transcript.whisperx[20].text |
目前我們現階段掌握的應該是到目前是這三個案子就拘留犬的案子那具有台灣身份證的咧那後續應該是還有一些案子還有一些案子再處理就對了只是因為他們具有台灣的身份證比較複雜是是好那我了解了好謝謝謝謝李坤臣 |