| IVOD_ID |
159960 |
| IVOD_URL |
https://ivod.ly.gov.tw/Play/Clip/1M/159960 |
| 日期 |
2025-04-09 |
| 會議資料.會議代碼 |
委員會-11-3-35-6 |
| 會議資料.會議代碼:str |
第11屆第3會期外交及國防委員會第6次全體委員會議 |
| 會議資料.屆 |
11 |
| 會議資料.會期 |
3 |
| 會議資料.會次 |
6 |
| 會議資料.種類 |
委員會 |
| 會議資料.委員會代碼[0] |
35 |
| 會議資料.委員會代碼:str[0] |
外交及國防委員會 |
| 會議資料.標題 |
第11屆第3會期外交及國防委員會第6次全體委員會議 |
| 影片種類 |
Clip |
| 開始時間 |
2025-04-09T10:53:37+08:00 |
| 結束時間 |
2025-04-09T11:08:20+08:00 |
| 影片長度 |
00:14:43 |
| 支援功能[0] |
ai-transcript |
| video_url |
https://ivod-lyvod.cdn.hinet.net/vod_1/_definst_/mp4:1MClips/984603a5a250cdce78ce411e1a718af8eafc78fb10225fff2eb6e21b32d8c6be9a2554e42ef972245ea18f28b6918d91.mp4/playlist.m3u8 |
| 委員名稱 |
王定宇 |
| 委員發言時間 |
10:53:37 - 11:08:20 |
| 會議時間 |
2025-04-09T09:00:00+08:00 |
| 會議名稱 |
立法院第11屆第3會期外交及國防委員會第6次全體委員會議【含秘密會議】（事由：邀請國家安全局局長蔡明彥率相關情報機關首長提出「國家情報工作暨國家安全局業務報告」，並備質詢。） |
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謝謝主席 麻煩國安局長 |
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10.919 |
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30.544 |
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好 王委員早局長早因為我們國安局統整我們全國的情報單位那其實你們算是一個資料彙整機關那提供給國家決策的參考我要問你一個新的狀況這個最新的消息是白宮的發言人這個李維特 |
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31.644 |
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59.583 |
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他代表川普表達因為現在的時間我們現在是台灣時間的4月9號的上午那10點54分那就是美東時間華府時間他們的4月9號的晚上10點54分再過一個小時過6分鐘他們所有宣布的稅都要開始執行他們是定在4月9號華府時間凌晨0點起開始執行那你以前是外交體系我相信你了解他們的一個作業過程 |
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60.97 |
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75.368 |
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那李威特講什麼李威特說川普總統吃軟不吃硬我現在簡單翻譯他的話啦意思說如果你報復你回擊那美國總統會更用力的回擊所以宣布對中國加徵再加50% |
| transcript.whisperx[4].start |
76.75 |
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102.895 |
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有人算出來說是104%其實如果加上拜登任內跟川普第一任的時候其實應該是126.1%不只104%縱使104%這也是大的事情可是後面這一段我不知道國安局有沒有掌握川普表達說來中國打電話過來習近平要做什麼你先打電話過來我會對你非常的gratias我會非常的寬容來處理這個事情 |
| transcript.whisperx[5].start |
104.39 |
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116.524 |
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你們的判斷,習近平會不會打這個電話公開喔,他公開說你要談,我會對你很寬容可以參選啦,要不然就是一百多趴了啦 |
| transcript.whisperx[6].start |
118.958 |
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135.836 |
| transcript.whisperx[6].text |
因為這一次全球的關稅問題不只是台美還牽涉到台灣跟周邊台灣的生產製造中心也許設在東南亞都有影響所以就你們這幾天國安會國安高層以及相關情報的收集你們認為中國會不會打這個電話 |
| transcript.whisperx[7].start |
138.32 |
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147.33 |
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我想我一個國安局長我沒有辦法去解釋啦或是去建議中國領導人該怎麼做你不能建議啦我要做的是你的言析你們的研判 |
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149.278 |
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174.693 |
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現階段來講看起來還是雙方是比較都在堅持立場的一個階段因為我比較擔心的是因為美中台三個關係其實互相是有連動的卻又互相獨立我們不容許台灣跟美國的關係被放在美國跟中國的談判桌上這是我們一貫的原則也就是美國跟台灣的外交關係的第一條鐵律就是美國不能把台灣拿去跟中國談美國也承諾這一點 |
| transcript.whisperx[9].start |
177.114 |
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200.382 |
| transcript.whisperx[9].text |
所以如果川普要求中國打這個電話那經濟的工具 關稅的工具大概用完了後面可能就是出政治的工具那政治的工具中國的台灣牌 美國的台灣牌我們台灣自己有台灣牌啦你們有沒有研判川普政府在這件事情台灣議題會不會扮演什麼角色 |
| transcript.whisperx[10].start |
202.127 |
| transcript.whisperx[10].end |
224.016 |
| transcript.whisperx[10].text |
現在大概川普政府在處理上目前看起來他在經貿議題上跟安全議題上是分開來處理那也就是說他在處理關稅問題的過程當中他的防長才剛剛在亞洲地區做了非常重要的訪問重新去提出對於亞洲盟友安全以及區域現狀維護一個非常堅強的一個承諾對 他訪問前還透露給媒體他們的這個暫時性的美國國家防衛的這個 |
| transcript.whisperx[11].start |
231.679 |
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246.576 |
| transcript.whisperx[11].text |
戰略導引嘛有置中護台的概念在裡面那這個導引裡面把台灣放在相當重要的位置所以他大概有一個所以我們現在講就是說當他在處理這個關稅的時候美國跟中國不管是雙方的領導者直接溝通或者透過一些談判 |
| transcript.whisperx[12].start |
247.717 |
| transcript.whisperx[12].end |
276.336 |
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台灣在這裡面不應該成為議題那我們不僅要了解要研析也應該要去影響那當然你從他公佈關稅的時候他那個板子上面台灣被視為一個獨立的國家這是一個在外交上是一個正向的分裂美國的CIA把那個旗幟啦國家地理他也做一個明確的標示台灣跟中國是互不隸屬互不管轄這是一個方向所以我們現在看到就是美中如果來硬的 |
| transcript.whisperx[13].start |
277.837 |
| transcript.whisperx[13].end |
301.162 |
| transcript.whisperx[13].text |
那中國的關稅一直往上堆疊而美國對中國在其他生產製造國都用高關稅來避免席產地所以我們現在派到美國的談判團隊除了要雙方希望建立零關稅其實零關稅不壞啦變FTA 雙方都零關稅其實還有一塊就是避免中國席產地如果這一個美國的策略為真的話 |
| transcript.whisperx[14].start |
302.262 |
| transcript.whisperx[14].end |
317.867 |
| transcript.whisperx[14].text |
那你們國安局本身在你們資料的研析上這個發展是不是一個方向那這個方向台灣在這裡面的角色是什麼是 這部分我想在總統召開相關的會議以及對外的談話已經提到了這一點 |
| transcript.whisperx[15].start |
318.447 |
| transcript.whisperx[15].end |
334.536 |
| transcript.whisperx[15].text |
那怎麼樣在進行台美之間後續有可能的關稅的協商過程當中怎麼來處理息產地或是出口管制的問題這確實是在相關評估過程當中一個重要的議題因為賴總統的五項談判策略其實看起來是 |
| transcript.whisperx[16].start |
335.957 |
| transcript.whisperx[16].end |
349.414 |
| transcript.whisperx[16].text |
經過深思熟慮這個有對到命題啦就是不管是你要降低彼此的貿易的deficit我們的貿易的差額貿易的赤字然後降低貿易的壁壘不管叫關稅壁壘或非關稅壁壘我們也盤點了 |
| transcript.whisperx[17].start |
352.478 |
| transcript.whisperx[17].end |
373.054 |
| transcript.whisperx[17].text |
第三個就是避免中國經由台灣洗產地或偷寄宿嘛這是一個另外呢川普也希望增加投資讓美國有機會最後一個他還是需要這些關稅美國聯邦政府要調整財務結構他大概是五大目的那我們現在鄭麗君副院長帶的談判團隊在美國那媒體有報導說吳釗燮也在美國但吳釗燮談的應該是另外一件事情 |
| transcript.whisperx[18].start |
378.789 |
| transcript.whisperx[18].end |
407.84 |
| transcript.whisperx[18].text |
目前4月9號台灣時間4月10號你認為台灣面對美國調高這個關稅這一波的衝擊我們有沒有辦法避免或者在短期間內有辦法和緩你們的判斷是什麼對對這部分因為我剛也跟媒體有說明政府事實上已經有做一連串非常充分的一個措施來做必要的因應那一部分是在盤點可能產業受到的影響跟衝擊所以總統跟服務院的團隊也跟 |
| transcript.whisperx[19].start |
408.5 |
| transcript.whisperx[19].end |
425.994 |
| transcript.whisperx[19].text |
產業界不管高科技或傳統產業有很多的討論那也提出了我們在短期跟中長期產業未來要發展佈局的一個重要的方向那第二部分也針對未來的台美關稅的協商那也做了很多的一個沙盤的推演這包括你們準備做的我們都知道 |
| transcript.whisperx[20].start |
426.554 |
| transcript.whisperx[20].end |
449.844 |
| transcript.whisperx[20].text |
因為總統也接觸了五項策略另外對美的軍事採購軍事採購當然不會列入貿易的額度裡面但是我們對自己的安全重視這件事情對談判是有好的一個前置條件我剛才問的是結果就是以目前你們掌握的狀況美國這一次全球關稅現在有五十多個國家要跟他們談 |
| transcript.whisperx[21].start |
450.664 |
| transcript.whisperx[21].end |
469.071 |
| transcript.whisperx[21].text |
昨天白宮還特別罕見講說台灣已經跟他們接觸了表示我們已經on the table已經在進程裡面了你們的判斷台灣在這一波的關稅裡面有沒有機會被不要說豁免被減緩或者說短時間內可以列到比較有利的地位上面 |
| transcript.whisperx[22].start |
469.642 |
| transcript.whisperx[22].end |
494.727 |
| transcript.whisperx[22].text |
也不能排除這樣的一個機會啦因為就像委員提到的我們在週末期間已經跟美方有做一些溝通那也針對我方的一個立場跟提案讓美方知道那這也是為什麼美國白宮的資深官員有對外證實這件事情所以雙方的一個戰略溝通的機制是有啟動的那接下來就看他在審核過程當中那哪些國家可以列入協商的名單那協商名單裡面有沒有比較優先的名單那這部分據我的理解還在處理過程當中台灣會不會再優先了 |
| transcript.whisperx[23].start |
500.549 |
| transcript.whisperx[23].end |
526.091 |
| transcript.whisperx[23].text |
目前他們還在討論你認為樂不樂觀因為在優先談判名單就有可能先暫緩對我們當然是爭取能夠有這樣的一個機會因為你是等於全國情報的最高首長但有些東西還在進行當中不辯講我尊重我剛要問的就是說以川普的決策模式你覺得因為剩下幾個小時會不會有些國家被暫時緩和下來 |
| transcript.whisperx[24].start |
528.65 |
| transcript.whisperx[24].end |
529.622 |
| transcript.whisperx[24].text |
你們的判斷有沒有可能 |
| transcript.whisperx[25].start |
531.127 |
| transcript.whisperx[25].end |
559.347 |
| transcript.whisperx[25].text |
因為馬上就先排了我知道 但他們目前看起來好像還沒有到那個階段他們現在重點是在塞綠可以來啟動關稅協商的國家名單因為他宣布的時間這是全球嘛 臨時差的嘛所以美東時間的半夜凌晨零點零時4月9號可是他到天亮 華爾街那個鐘開始敲其實還有幾個小時啊 |
| transcript.whisperx[26].start |
561.124 |
| transcript.whisperx[26].end |
564.857 |
| transcript.whisperx[26].text |
那這幾個小時以目前我還是那句話你方便說 |
| transcript.whisperx[27].start |
566.138 |
| transcript.whisperx[27].end |
591.429 |
| transcript.whisperx[27].text |
因為這牽涉到我們台灣太多的中小企業了這件事情影響中小企業非常的重大有一些不負責任的政治人物隨便說那跟美國開幹啊他32我們就50%我跟你講這個中小企業聽到講這種話都認為這是非常不負責任我們現在美國是我們對外出口的第一大市場在去年就開始超越中國了所以我現在要講的是以你目前的瞭解 |
| transcript.whisperx[28].start |
593.12 |
| transcript.whisperx[28].end |
620.72 |
| transcript.whisperx[28].text |
川普政府有沒有可能百分比我們用李克特五點亮表有沒有可能在真正執行這個關稅前把某些國家拉出來暫緩上次加拿大跟墨西哥就快要槍斃前就從行場拖回去說緩和一個月再來有沒有可能他們現在有在討論各種的狀況啦然後也針對已經表達協商的國家有在做一些討論正在討論你覺得有沒有可能 |
| transcript.whisperx[29].start |
621.839 |
| transcript.whisperx[29].end |
627.57 |
| transcript.whisperx[29].text |
極其不可能有點可能不知道或者有可能或非常可能五個點 |
| transcript.whisperx[30].start |
629.482 |
| transcript.whisperx[30].end |
656.735 |
| transcript.whisperx[30].text |
正在討論 他們還在討論當中所以目前這件事情正在發展中就是表達要談判意願的五十多個國家這五十多個國家裡面大概有六七個國家表達願意雙方零關稅盧比歐向歐盟表達川普的目的是建構北美洲跟歐盟的零關稅經貿環境他講這個話所以這件事情正在減變中所以我剛才從這邊聽到的是 |
| transcript.whisperx[31].start |
658.652 |
| transcript.whisperx[31].end |
682.005 |
| transcript.whisperx[31].text |
有沒有可能某些國家在正式執行前 暫時拉下來進行協商談判這個正在談 溝通中對 他們正在討論 他們現在正在討論 現在正在談當中嘛 是台灣是正在談當中一國嘛當然 我們已經有表達意願了我剛才跟委員說明我們跟台美之間這個機制是有啟動的那美方資深官員也對外證實這個機制是啟動的OK 兩個問題齁 主席我給你借一點時間齁那個 |
| transcript.whisperx[32].start |
687.483 |
| transcript.whisperx[32].end |
713.273 |
| transcript.whisperx[32].text |
吳釗燮現在在美國的所謂的特殊管道的安全談判跟這個關稅有沒有關係我不適合替國安會來回答這個問題OK 好 我尊重因為帕帕羅印太司令部的指揮官司令他特別提到最近的中共對台軍演他認為那不是一個演習他認為是一個rehearsal是一個進攻前的預演動作 |
| transcript.whisperx[33].start |
714.618 |
| transcript.whisperx[33].end |
743.95 |
| transcript.whisperx[33].text |
是一個對台進攻前的預演動作國安會怎麼看這句話我沒有辦法替國安會來回答我說國安局的部分國安局的部分他確實我剛才跟其他委員做說明他現在開始把一些例行性的演習做包裝而對台灣具有針對性然後他在演練的就是希望建立這種可能的油鹽轉戰的相關的能量帕帕羅上將所說的最近這些軍演他是一個發動對台攻擊的rehearsal |
| transcript.whisperx[34].start |
744.557 |
| transcript.whisperx[34].end |
772.636 |
| transcript.whisperx[34].text |
各種意見我們都尊重也會列入我們的評估好 這個我不為難你最後一個問題中共最近是不是在清洗他們的軍方有一個消息出來1300多位包含將領我這邊有列一些名單中央軍委會副主席國防部長戰區司令員武警部隊司令員軍政高層其他軍政包含東部台灣當面的東部戰區的海軍司令 |
| transcript.whisperx[35].start |
773.536 |
| transcript.whisperx[35].end |
799.014 |
| transcript.whisperx[35].text |
這裡面有上將中將被清洗的中上將少將大概可以組一個連然後所有的軍方中共解放軍被清洗的人將近1300多人這個消息是否為真你們有沒有掌握我們的數據剛剛在夜報裡面也有大概在裡面有羅列出來所以這數字是真的就有一些中共的將領被清洗但董軍的部分我沒記錯好像 |
| transcript.whisperx[36].start |
800.342 |
| transcript.whisperx[36].end |
821.361 |
| transcript.whisperx[36].text |
昨天還是什麼時候有公開的畫面出來就要再確認一下他消失一段時間後就出來了我這個提醒就是說當然有人說一個部隊在大清洗當中這個部隊是沒有辦法有戰力的但我們不能掉以輕心但另外一說就是當大清洗發生的時候困獸遊鬥這個時候大家要特別小心從印度、越南 |
| transcript.whisperx[37].start |
822.102 |
| transcript.whisperx[37].end |
842.592 |
| transcript.whisperx[37].text |
菲律賓甚至於澳洲、日本、台灣這些周邊國家都應該特別小心因為當內部在大清洗的時候製造衝突常常是解放軍解決問題的方法之一你們有評估這個事情?有有這部分國安單位、國防部我們都有全面全程的一個掌控共軍相關的所以目前局勢是有沒有升高的太陽還是正常持平? |
| transcript.whisperx[38].start |
843.992 |
| transcript.whisperx[38].end |
870.338 |
| transcript.whisperx[38].text |
目前還好所以這個清洗是確實正在發生有他是中共內部黨派的鬥爭還是藉由剛剛也跟陳委員在討論他有幾個可能的原因一來是派系的問題貪腐的問題忠誠度的問題那因為有些狀況還在他們的調查當中那可能要進一步再來做一些綜合的判斷你認為習近平的位置目前他是憂慮的還是安穩的 |
| transcript.whisperx[39].start |
872.15 |
| transcript.whisperx[39].end |
879.484 |
| transcript.whisperx[39].text |
我沒有辦法去揣摩習近平的心境啦但至少在軍文關係的這個後續的發展是我們關注的一個重點 |