| IVOD_ID |
159121 |
| IVOD_URL |
https://ivod.ly.gov.tw/Play/Clip/1M/159121 |
| 日期 |
2025-03-13 |
| 會議資料.會議代碼 |
委員會-11-3-20-2 |
| 會議資料.會議代碼:str |
第11屆第3會期財政委員會第2次全體委員會議 |
| 會議資料.屆 |
11 |
| 會議資料.會期 |
3 |
| 會議資料.會次 |
2 |
| 會議資料.種類 |
委員會 |
| 會議資料.委員會代碼[0] |
20 |
| 會議資料.委員會代碼:str[0] |
財政委員會 |
| 會議資料.標題 |
第11屆第3會期財政委員會第2次全體委員會議 |
| 影片種類 |
Clip |
| 開始時間 |
2025-03-13T11:25:19+08:00 |
| 結束時間 |
2025-03-13T11:36:13+08:00 |
| 影片長度 |
00:10:54 |
| 支援功能[0] |
ai-transcript |
| video_url |
https://ivod-lyvod.cdn.hinet.net/vod_1/_definst_/mp4:1MClips/3b972b8f6f00770f69e49b1c87b4d37ee83d902c8d6dd6c2ff1cdb1affc83ff4420fad759d9e24575ea18f28b6918d91.mp4/playlist.m3u8 |
| 委員名稱 |
林思銘 |
| 委員發言時間 |
11:25:19 - 11:36:13 |
| 會議時間 |
2025-03-13T09:00:00+08:00 |
| 會議名稱 |
立法院第11屆第3會期財政委員會第2次全體委員會議（事由：邀請中央銀行楊總裁金龍率所屬單位主管暨財金資訊股份有限公司董事長列席業務報告，並備質詢。） |
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| transcript.whisperx[0].start |
2.54 |
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好 謝謝主席 我們請楊總裁林委員早好 總裁早 總裁我想本席今天就將全國民眾最關心的幾項國內外的議題 包含川普上台政府如何因應還有烏俄戰爭仍然持續這樣的國際情勢我們台灣應該如何面對來向總裁就教 |
| transcript.whisperx[1].start |
32.665 |
| transcript.whisperx[1].end |
45.831 |
| transcript.whisperx[1].text |
根據央行在去年12月19號發布的經濟預測去年的經濟成長率上修到4.25%今年則預測大概是3.13%同時中研院經濟所也預測今年的成長率大概是3.1% |
| transcript.whisperx[2].start |
55.916 |
| transcript.whisperx[2].end |
68.485 |
| transcript.whisperx[2].text |
而關於貨幣的調整央行也已經連續三次維持基準率大概是在2%不變我想請問說我們今年下修的原因是什麼 |
| transcript.whisperx[3].start |
74.09 |
| transcript.whisperx[3].end |
94.626 |
| transcript.whisperx[3].text |
經濟成長率今年會下修的原因是什麼事實上我覺得我有看過那個因為我們現在我們在3月20號我們會有另外一個focus但是我覺得主計總署他下修的一個 |
| transcript.whisperx[4].start |
96.708 |
| transcript.whisperx[4].end |
124.521 |
| transcript.whisperx[4].text |
讓我知道的就是說他下修的一個很重要的一個因素是在於他的那個什麼存貨的調整存貨的調整對存貨調整也就是說他的民間的投資的這個部分呢不像他上一次所預期的那麼的高是因為存貨調整他本身呢本身是屬於民間投資的部分 |
| transcript.whisperx[5].start |
125.021 |
| transcript.whisperx[5].end |
145.478 |
| transcript.whisperx[5].text |
總裁我想這個當然是或許他下修的原因之一但是我告訴你依據這個主計總署他在2月26號他發布國內經濟預測表示是因為立法院三減預算會削弱成長的動能因此下修今年經濟成長率到3.14% |
| transcript.whisperx[6].start |
149.921 |
| transcript.whisperx[6].end |
163.168 |
| transcript.whisperx[6].text |
跟他原先預測的數減少了大概0.15%所以我想請教總裁是說這個主計總署他說調降GDP的理由是因為立法院刪減預算 |
| transcript.whisperx[7].start |
165.342 |
| transcript.whisperx[7].end |
177.974 |
| transcript.whisperx[7].text |
您同意嗎?你覺得這個因素要去考量下去,他這樣的講法成立嗎?是啦,你們不是也有一張表嗎? |
| transcript.whisperx[8].start |
181.377 |
| transcript.whisperx[8].end |
193.69 |
| transcript.whisperx[8].text |
就是說我看他的那個表他的表裡面除了剛剛我所講的就是說他的存貨的調整以外民間的消費政府的支出的這個部分 |
| transcript.whisperx[9].start |
199.861 |
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216.159 |
| transcript.whisperx[9].text |
主宰 主宰我這樣好了啦 主宰其實我比較關心的是說他講的其中一個因素就是因為我們立法院刪減了這次的一個預算所以也是造成說我們成長動能的削弱的原因 |
| transcript.whisperx[10].start |
217.881 |
| transcript.whisperx[10].end |
226.227 |
| transcript.whisperx[10].text |
根據我們的資料,我所掌握的,跟...總裁,我想請教總裁的,是,總裁我的意思就是說,他這樣的說法,他這樣的一個說法說經過刪減後,會影響整個我們政府未來的投資以及消費,而導致GDP的下降剛才你也提到,本月20號,央行要召開理事會 |
| transcript.whisperx[11].start |
245.76 |
| transcript.whisperx[11].end |
264.558 |
| transcript.whisperx[11].text |
所以央行會有新的2025年就今年的GDP的預測所以這個如果在20號的理事會到時候會不會將三讀後的政府總預算的金額的結果也列為我們預測的因素之一是 |
| transcript.whisperx[12].start |
265.955 |
| transcript.whisperx[12].end |
286.53 |
| transcript.whisperx[12].text |
我想剛剛我們如果看主席總署的這個表是沒有錯他也講到政府的支出的這個部分他是下修了0.08那存後這邊民間的投資也有下修那公營的也有下修0.01那這個是主要還有政府的消費也下修了0.01 |
| transcript.whisperx[13].start |
287.871 |
| transcript.whisperx[13].end |
292.155 |
| transcript.whisperx[13].text |
所以未來你們在20號的央行的理事會你認為會考量這個因素嗎?因為我覺得他這個組織總書的說法是非常不正確的 |
| transcript.whisperx[14].start |
309.472 |
| transcript.whisperx[14].end |
330.057 |
| transcript.whisperx[14].text |
因為今年總預算通過的數額是歷史新高兩兆九千兩百四十八億比去年增加了一千三百六十八億創歷史的新高你竟然講說會影響政府的投資及消費而導致GDP的下降 |
| transcript.whisperx[15].start |
331.937 |
| transcript.whisperx[15].end |
340.16 |
| transcript.whisperx[15].text |
這個說法正確嗎?不過根據他的這個數據來看的話0.08加上0.01的0.09再加上0.01就將近是0.1啦他上一次是3.29嘛 |
| transcript.whisperx[16].start |
350.604 |
| transcript.whisperx[16].end |
377.727 |
| transcript.whisperx[16].text |
所以他把他下修到0.15%他本身的政府的這個部分他就下修0.1%所以0.5%我猜我的重點不在這裡他一直講說是因為立法院刪減總預算造成他GDP要下修我說這樣的說法其實是不正確的我也希望說央行在20號的理事會你對於這個重新評估我們今年的GDP的下修我們會 |
| transcript.whisperx[17].start |
379.748 |
| transcript.whisperx[17].end |
397.467 |
| transcript.whisperx[17].text |
第一個我們會再重新評估我們的但是你要把這個因素你要列入嗎這個根本是不成立的嘛因為這個數據呢這個數據呢他雖然就是說是就是說是在這裡沒關係啦這個我是表達我的意見是是是我想另外因為時間的關係我再請問你一下 |
| transcript.whisperx[18].start |
400.371 |
| transcript.whisperx[18].end |
418.012 |
| transcript.whisperx[18].text |
因為在昨天的復議案的質詢中卓院長表示說台電千億撥補如果落空台電將被迫調電價所以我想請問如果說台電因為錯誤的能源政策而在不給補助的情況之下來調漲電價 |
| transcript.whisperx[19].start |
420.359 |
| transcript.whisperx[19].end |
435.884 |
| transcript.whisperx[19].text |
那麼是否會造成萬物齊漲就通膨的一個壓力應該是不會就是說萬物齊漲也不會你是認為不會所以央行後續會有升息的壓力嗎因為就是說我們上一年我們的我們的預測是1.89 |
| transcript.whisperx[20].start |
438.685 |
| transcript.whisperx[20].end |
444.933 |
| transcript.whisperx[20].text |
如果說我們考量到電價的調整還有其他的工用事業的匯率的調整我們大概也會接近2% |
| transcript.whisperx[21].start |
453.402 |
| transcript.whisperx[21].end |
465.307 |
| transcript.whisperx[21].text |
所以就是因為台電調漲電價會造成我們整個CPI的年增率會增加所以大概就會上漲到大概就會破2%左右你預期就2%左右不會再繼續往上嗎 |
| transcript.whisperx[22].start |
471.45 |
| transcript.whisperx[22].end |
492.805 |
| transcript.whisperx[22].text |
應該如果說直接的直接的影響是這樣子那如果說他有說什麼通膨疫情的心理我再想這一次應該不會了我想我希望你的預測只是準的我們再看一下國外的情勢就是川普上任之後關於美國在新的經貿政策所帶來的影響 |
| transcript.whisperx[23].start |
493.826 |
| transcript.whisperx[23].end |
515.09 |
| transcript.whisperx[23].text |
川普的經貿政策被我們公認為影響我國經濟的成長的重要變數包含台積電我們剛剛一直提到也已經確定要去赴美投資一千億美元所以央行目前有沒有制定哪些具體的因應策略以降低因應國際情勢的外部不確定性對我國經濟與匯率的一個影響 |
| transcript.whisperx[24].start |
522.532 |
| transcript.whisperx[24].end |
547.671 |
| transcript.whisperx[24].text |
以及在全球經濟存在下行風險的情況之下未來是否有需要調整貨幣政策以確保我國經濟的穩定性還有台積電如果赴美的新投資是否會影響我國未來我們的GDP的成長對台灣經濟發展的前景會有何影響我想你現在不用用口頭回答我這幾個問題請你用書面來答覆我 |
| transcript.whisperx[25].start |
550.333 |
| transcript.whisperx[25].end |
576.023 |
| transcript.whisperx[25].text |
因為我們針對這個央行房市管制的措施啊央行決定連續三次維持基準利率在2%不變嘛那也會推出新的房市的管制措施到今年2月底央行已經進行專案精檢總共170次嘛所以請問央行在進行7次的調整選擇信用管制的措施後 |
| transcript.whisperx[26].start |
577.223 |
| transcript.whisperx[26].end |
588.187 |
| transcript.whisperx[26].text |
現在暫時沒有新的管制措施這是否意味說央行已經認為國內的房價以及房市的交易已經達到央行可以接受的平穩狀況 |
| transcript.whisperx[27].start |
591.603 |
| transcript.whisperx[27].end |
619.922 |
| transcript.whisperx[27].text |
我們在報告裡面我們有談到就是說基本上呢我們第一個就是說疫情心理是有下來了第二個呢它的那個集中度是集中度就是說我們金融機構放款給這個不弄產的這個集中度呢慢慢的再下來了37點多現在下降下來另外呢就是說給無自用自宅的資源呢慢慢再上升了 |
| transcript.whisperx[28].start |
620.562 |
| transcript.whisperx[28].end |
639.734 |
| transcript.whisperx[28].text |
這個有達到我們初步的一個效果但是我們現在目前我們有兩個方向第一個因為我們在去年八月的時候我們希望在他們在一年之內做這個資源的一個調整那這個我們每季每次都會我這樣問你最後的結論就是說未來因為現在你說已經達到平穩的效果 |
| transcript.whisperx[29].start |
644.838 |
| transcript.whisperx[29].end |
648.365 |
| transcript.whisperx[29].text |
所以未來有沒有可能會有第八次的新聞管制措施我們滾動式檢討 |