| IVOD_ID |
170412 |
| IVOD_URL |
https://ivod.ly.gov.tw/Play/Clip/1M/170412 |
| 日期 |
2026-07-09 |
| 會議資料.會議代碼 |
委員會-11-5-20-21 |
| 會議資料.會議代碼:str |
第11屆第5會期財政委員會第21次全體委員會議 |
| 會議資料.屆 |
11 |
| 會議資料.會期 |
5 |
| 會議資料.會次 |
21 |
| 會議資料.種類 |
委員會 |
| 會議資料.委員會代碼[0] |
20 |
| 會議資料.委員會代碼:str[0] |
財政委員會 |
| 會議資料.標題 |
第11屆第5會期財政委員會第21次全體委員會議 |
| 影片種類 |
Clip |
| 開始時間 |
2026-07-09T11:53:15+08:00 |
| 結束時間 |
2026-07-09T12:01:16+08:00 |
| 影片長度 |
00:08:01 |
| 支援功能[0] |
ai-transcript |
| video_url |
https://ivod-lyvod.cdn.hinet.net/vod_1/_definst_/mp4:1MClips/819c86070d9120f7ee93e882524cb52ac6cfcebe9e655170f6890c68cd02fc39a70d2b13d237a2c95ea18f28b6918d91.mp4/playlist.m3u8 |
| 委員名稱 |
葉元之 |
| 委員發言時間 |
11:53:15 - 12:01:16 |
| 會議時間 |
2026-07-09T09:00:00+08:00 |
| 會議名稱 |
立法院第11屆第5會期財政委員會第21次全體委員會議（事由：邀請中央銀行楊總裁金龍就「股市、通膨、匯率與房市多重風險中，中央銀行中長期因應策略與政策工具」進行專題報告，並備質詢。
【7月8日及9日兩天一次會】） |
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請總裁請總裁 請總裁 |
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因為現在根據你們報告現在都預估在2%以上那足跡總出資預估已經到2.6那目前看起來是不是還沒有升息的打算可是你剛剛提到美國像美國的FED都說如果他們擔心物價持續上漲的話會考慮升息那目前央行的考慮是什麼 |
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42.312 |
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因為他也是要根據他的預測啊我剛才也在講就是說他現在都是3.84他現在是3.81那如果說他在3.81就是很高咧那如果說他的通膨再上去的時候那當然他如果說那我要升息的話好像 |
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因為實際上現在3C都漲了嘛我說3C產品很多都漲了嘛然後外食啊什麼各方面都漲了房租也都漲所以其實看起來你說CPI2%是在警戒線但是一般民眾的體感的通膨其實是不只這樣所以我覺得那個央行在 |
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84.345 |
| transcript.whisperx[4].end |
110.67 |
| transcript.whisperx[4].text |
在這個解讀數據的時候可能要做一些還是要做一些就是有一些跟民眾相關的感覺相關的一些評估啦該做的還是要做嘛不能完全按照這個這個我同意這個我會同意第二個跟那個總裁請教一下因為我們現在經濟成長率連三年都明顯高於預期嘛對不對然後那當然經濟好就會引發需求性的通膨嘛那現在 |
| transcript.whisperx[5].start |
114.03 |
| transcript.whisperx[5].end |
139.604 |
| transcript.whisperx[5].text |
經濟好經濟好然後這個為什麼還是一樣回到剛剛那個問題就是因為經濟好所以你們又認為說不會通膨到底是為什麼我跟委員報告這一點我們在報告裡面我們也有談到啦也就是說我們的經濟好主要的是在哪裡大家都知道都是出口都是出口 |
| transcript.whisperx[6].start |
140.504 |
| transcript.whisperx[6].end |
161.643 |
| transcript.whisperx[6].text |
事實上我們的消費是算是穩健而已不是說非常非常的好引起通膨的壓力而我們的經濟的好主要是出口所以我們出口的物價反而比我們的進口物價還要高但是出口物價高是對方在接受的 |
| transcript.whisperx[7].start |
165.106 |
| transcript.whisperx[7].end |
186.007 |
| transcript.whisperx[7].text |
因為我們經濟好對不對我們經濟好然後就會刺激大家有錢了嘛有錢就會刺激消費嘛對 但是我們的消費因為你也知道因為你也知道就是說因為我們的這個我們的A友就是說是傳統產業對 可見可見就是總裁的意思是說我們現在雖然經濟成長率很高但是其實我們現在 |
| transcript.whisperx[8].start |
187.048 |
| transcript.whisperx[8].end |
199.172 |
| transcript.whisperx[8].text |
不同產業有不同的狀況是集中在像AI半導體伺服器這種但是傳統產業或其他經濟沒有那麼好你的意思大概是這樣相較之下經濟沒有這麼好那如果是這樣子的話像央行這邊有沒有什麼貨幣工具所以我們 |
| transcript.whisperx[9].start |
207.495 |
| transcript.whisperx[9].end |
224.574 |
| transcript.whisperx[9].text |
所以我們才會就是說當我們認為就是信用市場稍微就是說比較熱絡一點我們說比較緊一點的話也跟那個存單從7兆的下降到6兆多這個是緊的一個象徵 |
| transcript.whisperx[10].start |
225.855 |
| transcript.whisperx[10].end |
243.884 |
| transcript.whisperx[10].text |
那在這個時候呢我們也考慮到就是說我們除了就是說是出口的那些的產業很好以外其他的呢還是普通啊那普通的時候呢所以我們的而且呢因為我們的通膨也不是很高所以呢我們的利率呢所以就維持 |
| transcript.whisperx[11].start |
244.484 |
| transcript.whisperx[11].end |
269.378 |
| transcript.whisperx[11].text |
我是說央行應該有沒有針對我們台灣現在等於是M型社會啦 K型社會啦所以我們也有談到在我們的貨幣政策裡面我們也有提到就是說貨幣政策呢在如果說是一個很normal distribution的一個產業的情況之下的話呢貨幣政策比較有效但是如果說M型的時候呢那它就比較會受到挑戰我再問一下齁 |
| transcript.whisperx[12].start |
270.098 |
| transcript.whisperx[12].end |
294.665 |
| transcript.whisperx[12].text |
因為現在我們台幣的匯率相對美國還是在弱勢但是我們的股票你說我們是弱勢相對美國啦美元啦我看到你們好像講說是因為外資現在賺的錢就跑了嘛所以他們跑當然就買美元嘛那這樣子是代表說外資不會再回來嗎股市的前景你看怎麼樣他出去他也會回來啊 |
| transcript.whisperx[13].start |
295.946 |
| transcript.whisperx[13].end |
317.507 |
| transcript.whisperx[13].text |
資金就是這樣子 資金有出它就會有進 只是說最近它是出去的比較多所以之後回來之後 我們台幣又會升值基本上是 大部分也是這樣 就出去的時候新台幣會貶值它如果大量進來的時候 新台幣會升值你覺得外資來有沒有持續看好台股我覺得它還是看好啊 |
| transcript.whisperx[14].start |
320.752 |
| transcript.whisperx[14].end |
330.7 |
| transcript.whisperx[14].text |
因為我們的基本面我們的AI的這個產業他還相當好所以他投進來的大部分都是這些電子電子那個自通訊產品啊 |
| transcript.whisperx[15].start |
333.403 |
| transcript.whisperx[15].end |
347.792 |
| transcript.whisperx[15].text |
最後一個小問題總裁一直講說不太可能會出現世代同堂的狀況因為銀行會自己把關你說銀行會把關不太會出現世代同堂我覺得我們應該相信銀行但是實際上銀行在審查個人貸款的時候是看一個無擔保負擔不得超過 |
| transcript.whisperx[16].start |
355.296 |
| transcript.whisperx[16].end |
375.876 |
| transcript.whisperx[16].text |
月收入的22倍叫做DBR22但是世貸同堂裡面很多其實跟DBR22無關比如說像融資股票質押這就是你有擔保品嘛這就不是無擔保品嘛然後還有房貸房貸也是有擔保品對然後再來就是只有就是信用貸款是沒有擔保品對所以其實 |
| transcript.whisperx[17].start |
377.037 |
| transcript.whisperx[17].end |
401.004 |
| transcript.whisperx[17].text |
要監管絕大多數都是跟無單貿品無關只有信用貸款所以一個年輕人他只要有房子他有股票他就是有可能會做到世代同堂所以這個跟總裁你講的世代同堂不容易發生不是我的意思就是說一個人除非就是說他非常有錢 |
| transcript.whisperx[18].start |
402.444 |
| transcript.whisperx[18].end |
422.934 |
| transcript.whisperx[18].text |
他有房子有股票有房子有股票也不難啊他有股票有房子有股票有信用就可以世代同堂啊像這樣的話呢他的除非就是說每一個人都是非常富有不是富有他就是有房子有但現在大家為什麼講世代同堂是因為股市很熱大家把所有的東西都拿去投到股市裡面嘛 |
| transcript.whisperx[19].start |
423.574 |
| transcript.whisperx[19].end |
437.143 |
| transcript.whisperx[19].text |
所以他身上很多貸款嘛但是一旦股票出現假設啦 股票有波動那這些私貸通常就完蛋了因為他房子什麼什麼全部拿去抵押了嘛而且還會背債啊所以大家在討論這件事情所以我覺得總 那個 |
| transcript.whisperx[20].start |
438.542 |
| transcript.whisperx[20].end |
461.773 |
| transcript.whisperx[20].text |
但那麼多委員講這個事情 應該是要請總裁注意到這個狀況我也是注意啦 當然我也有就說 知道同償不容易出現 我覺得這樣的態度是沒有任何問題啦 不不不 我的意思就是說 不不不 我的意思就是說他的信用在槓桿是有的 但是呢 一個人要就是說全部這四樣把它包起來 然後去借錢 我覺得是比較 |
| transcript.whisperx[21].start |
464.794 |
| transcript.whisperx[21].end |
480.581 |
| transcript.whisperx[21].text |
人數比較不多啦人數比較多不會那麼多那如果說你是一樣一樣一樣的話那當然啊因為他是增加的他是增加的他是增加的他是增加的那我們知道也就是說信用是有在槓桿啊所以就是要小心啊是是是謝謝王明杰 |