| IVOD_ID |
170409 |
| IVOD_URL |
https://ivod.ly.gov.tw/Play/Clip/1M/170409 |
| 日期 |
2026-07-09 |
| 會議資料.會議代碼 |
委員會-11-5-20-21 |
| 會議資料.會議代碼:str |
第11屆第5會期財政委員會第21次全體委員會議 |
| 會議資料.屆 |
11 |
| 會議資料.會期 |
5 |
| 會議資料.會次 |
21 |
| 會議資料.種類 |
委員會 |
| 會議資料.委員會代碼[0] |
20 |
| 會議資料.委員會代碼:str[0] |
財政委員會 |
| 會議資料.標題 |
第11屆第5會期財政委員會第21次全體委員會議 |
| 影片種類 |
Clip |
| 開始時間 |
2026-07-09T11:19:37+08:00 |
| 結束時間 |
2026-07-09T11:32:04+08:00 |
| 影片長度 |
00:12:27 |
| 支援功能[0] |
ai-transcript |
| 支援功能[1] |
gazette |
| video_url |
https://ivod-lyvod.cdn.hinet.net/vod_1/_definst_/mp4:1MClips/819c86070d9120f7eaa313f0a48e5982c6cfcebe9e655170daab8b1e00aaf11760397b764e3c89ef5ea18f28b6918d91.mp4/playlist.m3u8 |
| 委員名稱 |
王世堅 |
| 委員發言時間 |
11:19:37 - 11:32:04 |
| 會議時間 |
2026-07-09T09:00:00+08:00 |
| 會議名稱 |
立法院第11屆第5會期財政委員會第21次全體委員會議（事由：邀請中央銀行楊總裁金龍就「股市、通膨、匯率與房市多重風險中，中央銀行中長期因應策略與政策工具」進行專題報告，並備質詢。
【7月8日及9日兩天一次會】） |
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| transcript.whisperx[0].start |
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謝謝主席 我請央行 楊總裁請總裁早這個 |
| transcript.whisperx[1].start |
17.253 |
| transcript.whisperx[1].end |
40.168 |
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今年6月18號那麼我們央行第二屆第二季禮監事會議那有做了大概我把它歸納兩大重點第一個重點就是維持利率不調整那麼第二個就是針對這個維持信用管制的部分打房的這個部分一樣 |
| transcript.whisperx[2].start |
40.908 |
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也是繼續維持那這一點很好我今天要跟你探討的就是這兩件事情第一件事情我先從這個房市維持信用管制講起我覺得這一點總裁你們這一點確實有堅持那麼這一個風骨我非常肯定因為這當中有很多房地產業者甚至民間的大戶他們透過各種方式 |
| transcript.whisperx[3].start |
70.684 |
| transcript.whisperx[3].end |
94.383 |
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還做成新聞都一直在針對央行這個政策那麼都一直用各用盡各種方法就是希望你們反轉那我看114年到現在這115年5月剛好這兩年裡面我們從開始管制那麼我們的目標要壓到房市在放款率而佔35%一直維持到 |
| transcript.whisperx[4].start |
98.318 |
| transcript.whisperx[4].end |
113.104 |
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現在為止我們已經從37.61兩年來降到35.17我覺得已經對這個目標算是有達成所以我希望維持信用管制能夠繼續下去為什麼 |
| transcript.whisperx[5].start |
115.805 |
| transcript.whisperx[5].end |
132.092 |
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因為我們台灣的房價確實全世界可以說我們是數一數二啦這個我們的房價指數過高那麼這個房價指數我們不但漲幅是全世界名列前茅 |
| transcript.whisperx[6].start |
133.206 |
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157.147 |
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而且我舉一個例子你看我們今年的四月份才稍微放寬一下一個月馬上馬上就有24億元又湧入房市照說四月份正式高科技股市大好的時候結果你只要稍微一點點的放鬆 |
| transcript.whisperx[7].start |
158.408 |
| transcript.whisperx[7].end |
187.191 |
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結果馬上大筆的資金又湧入房市而且這個湧入房市我都覺得這個有一些是因為我們國內我們就是對房屋持有成本低嘛再加上要囤房的代價小我們利率一直那麼低所以富豪是坐永多屋啦那現在生斗小民是一宅難求 |
| transcript.whisperx[8].start |
187.991 |
| transcript.whisperx[8].end |
203.749 |
| transcript.whisperx[8].text |
所以我覺得這個策略我們繼續維持信用管制這是非常正確的你看連我們最保守的連我們最保守的內政部他在估這個住宅價格的時候他把 |
| transcript.whisperx[9].start |
205.402 |
| transcript.whisperx[9].end |
231.022 |
| transcript.whisperx[9].text |
當中實價房屋累積的漲幅都來到25%都高過澳洲、美國甚至新加坡、南韓等這些國家所以確確實實我們台灣房價的漲幅在世界是名列前茅我希望維持信用管制這一點楊總裁你們能夠堅持好不好 |
| transcript.whisperx[10].start |
238.152 |
| transcript.whisperx[10].end |
243.361 |
| transcript.whisperx[10].text |
另外一點就是導致利率我有一些看法可能就是 |
| transcript.whisperx[11].start |
244.622 |
| transcript.whisperx[11].end |
264.734 |
| transcript.whisperx[11].text |
可能跟總裁您這邊可能要探討一下就是說你看我舉光2022年一年美國2022年一年一年而後他們一年連調了四次大概有三碼之多 |
| transcript.whisperx[12].start |
265.635 |
| transcript.whisperx[12].end |
281.121 |
| transcript.whisperx[12].text |
的這個利息而我們我們連這三年我們連一碼也不調一碼也沒有升當然我知道你有多方面包括匯率的考量要我們這個出口的部分可是可是 |
| transcript.whisperx[13].start |
285.358 |
| transcript.whisperx[13].end |
303.015 |
| transcript.whisperx[13].text |
我們的通貨膨脹 CPI指數現在已經高到都已經達到警戒線都已經達到2%了連你們自己的估計喔連你們的估計也是估這個今年第二季的 |
| transcript.whisperx[14].start |
304.056 |
| transcript.whisperx[14].end |
321.239 |
| transcript.whisperx[14].text |
通貨膨脹率你們也是估2.6%你們甚至認為7月還會在2%以上抱歉這是主計總數主計總數的估計那你們當初預估今年的第二季 |
| transcript.whisperx[15].start |
322.324 |
| transcript.whisperx[15].end |
348.585 |
| transcript.whisperx[15].text |
CPI 2.1那事實上事實上還更高了不是嗎事實上已經來到2.17所以我認為當CPI高有點通膨的時候來到警戒線的時候是不是在國外尤其美國他們都以適度的調高利率來調節這個物價 |
| transcript.whisperx[16].start |
353.083 |
| transcript.whisperx[16].end |
374.874 |
| transcript.whisperx[16].text |
而在這一次的你們的理監事會議裡面當然以您的意見為主導最後還是不調但是當中有兩位理事他們也提起說是不是可以適度的用利率來控制通膨加上這個最近 |
| transcript.whisperx[17].start |
376.335 |
| transcript.whisperx[17].end |
382.529 |
| transcript.whisperx[17].text |
這個在AI產品有一個新名稱這個新名稱就是AI通膨 |
| transcript.whisperx[18].start |
386.112 |
| transcript.whisperx[18].end |
405.186 |
| transcript.whisperx[18].text |
因為我們高科技產品電子產品原物料的上漲那這一個部分因為AI需求的強勁那帶動這些上漲我們六月啊教養設備跟用具CPI年增率是7.39真的是符合 |
| transcript.whisperx[19].start |
406.331 |
| transcript.whisperx[19].end |
416.675 |
| transcript.whisperx[19].text |
符合這個AI通膨你看那個你坊間去看蘋果電腦現在漲幅啊它漲幅上萬元耶華碩電腦也預計漲15%到20%所以AI通膨 |
| transcript.whisperx[20].start |
427.017 |
| transcript.whisperx[20].end |
451.731 |
| transcript.whisperx[20].text |
民生的大家都有感所以是不是要維持物價的平穩我們應該適度的針對利率來做調整調高 你看法呢事實上委員講的也沒有錯就是說當我們的物價當我們的物價如果說是超過2%以上你就要考慮 |
| transcript.whisperx[21].start |
454.272 |
| transcript.whisperx[21].end |
481.67 |
| transcript.whisperx[21].text |
不過我們這一次沒有把它就是說已經是就是說大概就是接近2%那2%我跟委員報告2%來講的話基本上它是比較屬於中長期的指標因為在我們的報告裡面也有談到就是說事實上一般的機構包括一般的機構都認為說我們明年我們的物價水準就會下來的 |
| transcript.whisperx[22].start |
482.335 |
| transcript.whisperx[22].end |
485.263 |
| transcript.whisperx[22].text |
你說哪一些機構你看看你們的報告給我們 |
| transcript.whisperx[23].start |
488.171 |
| transcript.whisperx[23].end |
511.777 |
| transcript.whisperx[23].text |
我們來報告第四頁在今天最新的資料裡面有20家你看看我們的第四頁裡面我們有20家的主要的機構對我們本年台灣通膨的預測平均值為1.9它是今年是1.9但是明年它是給我們1.7 |
| transcript.whisperx[24].start |
513.897 |
| transcript.whisperx[24].end |
517.899 |
| transcript.whisperx[24].text |
是1.7%所以我們才會顯示國內通膨預期尚屬穩定美國調升利息速度非常快這個我也稍微解釋一下當時美國通膨到8% 9% 10% |
| transcript.whisperx[25].start |
535.017 |
| transcript.whisperx[25].end |
549.187 |
| transcript.whisperx[25].text |
那那個時候我們台灣只有3點幾%相差很大到目前為止我跟委員報告到目前為止美國的通膨他的通膨到目前他還3.81他的CPI還3.81喔3.81的話而且他的這個3.81 |
| transcript.whisperx[26].start |
556.28 |
| transcript.whisperx[26].end |
574.866 |
| transcript.whisperx[26].text |
到目前為止已經是持續持續了很久了所以呢他他市場川普是希望那個美國呢聯準會要調降利息但是他遲遲不敢那遲遲不敢為什麼因為他的通膨實在現在還是通膨還越來越加劇通膨越來越加劇現在3點你看看我們的數字3.81總裁你的意思就是說你們的預測 |
| transcript.whisperx[27].start |
582.769 |
| transcript.whisperx[27].end |
594.739 |
| transcript.whisperx[27].text |
你根據另外有幾家共同的預測認為明年會往下調所以會在2.7左右1.7左右所以因為基於這樣所以你們還是維持利率不調那我再舉一個例子 |
| transcript.whisperx[28].start |
602.905 |
| transcript.whisperx[28].end |
616.389 |
| transcript.whisperx[28].text |
利率跟房價我們剛剛講我們透過信用管制就是我們台灣的房價已經漲到一般生斗小民沒有房子可以住買不起嘛那你看我們從民國64年來做一個表格 |
| transcript.whisperx[29].start |
619.45 |
| transcript.whisperx[29].end |
628.158 |
| transcript.whisperx[29].text |
一直到96年一直到現在為止目前為止你看民國64年當房價當利率10.75的時候房價2萬2萬3 5萬一直上來你看房價開始大漲的時候一下來到25萬的時候就是利率降到7.75 |
| transcript.whisperx[30].start |
641.73 |
| transcript.whisperx[30].end |
658.508 |
| transcript.whisperx[30].text |
民國78年是一個剛好一個分界齡來到民國89年也是又另外一個分界齡民國89年的時候當時利率也是下滑到4.6抱歉 |
| transcript.whisperx[31].start |
659.642 |
| transcript.whisperx[31].end |
684.215 |
| transcript.whisperx[31].text |
你看那個房價就一直飆高一直飆高一直飆高到現在來到平均這是中古屋的房價平均60萬3你有管制以後從64萬6現在平均到60萬3但是利率1.125所以如果我們從最高當初民國64年也就是說這50年來10.75%的利率 |
| transcript.whisperx[32].start |
688.677 |
| transcript.whisperx[32].end |
690.52 |
| transcript.whisperx[32].text |
盪到1.125房價從2萬塊錢上升了30倍來到60.3而每一次都是利率高那麼 |
| transcript.whisperx[33].start |
703.12 |
| transcript.whisperx[33].end |
723.031 |
| transcript.whisperx[33].text |
房價漲幅就比較低那當利率低的時候房價就大幅上漲你可以看這一個關係圖好不好那這一個關係圖當然也能不能由央行從這裡面你找出看有哪一些你認為有不對的有什麼端倪但是事實是如此所以 |
| transcript.whisperx[34].start |
723.951 |
| transcript.whisperx[34].end |
724.211 |
| transcript.whisperx[34].text |
好 謝謝我們結束 |
| transcript.gazette[0].speaker |
王委員世堅 |
| transcript.gazette[0].start |
2026-07-09T11:19:42.158000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[0].guessed |
|
| transcript.gazette[0].end |
2026-07-09T11:19:43.720000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[0].text |
謝謝主席，我請央行楊總裁。 |
| transcript.gazette[0].quality |
1 |
| transcript.gazette[1].speaker |
主席 |
| transcript.gazette[1].start |
2026-07-09T11:19:44.121000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[1].guessed |
|
| transcript.gazette[1].end |
2026-07-09T11:19:44.121000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[1].text |
請總裁。 |
| transcript.gazette[1].quality |
1 |
| transcript.gazette[2].speaker |
楊總裁金龍 |
| transcript.gazette[2].start |
2026-07-09T11:19:44.121000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[2].guessed |
1 |
| transcript.gazette[2].end |
2026-07-09T11:19:54.253000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[2].text |
王委員早。 |
| transcript.gazette[2].quality |
0.25 |
| transcript.gazette[3].speaker |
王委員世堅 |
| transcript.gazette[3].start |
2026-07-09T11:19:54.253000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[3].guessed |
|
| transcript.gazette[3].end |
2026-07-09T11:20:23.071000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[3].text |
今年6月18號央行第2季理監事會議我歸納了兩大重點，第一個重點就是維持利率不調整；第二個就是針對維持信用管制的部分、打房的部分，一樣也是繼續維持，這一點很好，我今天要跟你探討的就是這兩件事情。 |
| transcript.gazette[3].quality |
0.976 |
| transcript.gazette[4].speaker |
王委員世堅 |
| transcript.gazette[4].start |
2026-07-09T11:20:23.931000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[4].guessed |
|
| transcript.gazette[4].end |
2026-07-09T11:20:58.773000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[4].text |
第一件事情，我先從房市維持信用管制講起，總裁，我覺得這一點你們確實有堅持，這個風骨我非常肯定，因為這當中有很多房地產業者，甚至民間的大戶，他們透過各種方式還做成新聞，針對央行這個政策都一直用盡各種方法希望你們反轉。 |
| transcript.gazette[4].quality |
0.98 |
| transcript.gazette[5].speaker |
王委員世堅 |
| transcript.gazette[5].start |
2026-07-09T11:20:58.913000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[5].guessed |
|
| transcript.gazette[5].end |
2026-07-09T11:21:30.064000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[5].text |
我看114年到現在115年5月，剛好在這兩年裡面，從開始管制以來，我們的目標要壓到房市占放款比例35%，到現在為止，兩年來我們已經從37.61%降到35.17%，我覺得這個目標算是有達成，所以我希望維持信用管制能夠繼續下去。 |
| transcript.gazette[5].quality |
0.874 |
| transcript.gazette[6].speaker |
王委員世堅 |
| transcript.gazette[6].start |
2026-07-09T11:21:30.084000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[6].guessed |
|
| transcript.gazette[6].end |
2026-07-09T11:21:30.104000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[6].text |
為什麼呢？ |
| transcript.gazette[6].quality |
0.75 |
| transcript.gazette[7].speaker |
王委員世堅 |
| transcript.gazette[7].start |
2026-07-09T11:21:32.805000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[7].guessed |
|
| transcript.gazette[7].end |
2026-07-09T11:21:49.072000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[7].text |
因為我們臺灣的房價確實在全世界可以說是數一數二，我們的房價指數過高，我們不但漲幅在全世界名列前茅。 |
| transcript.gazette[7].quality |
0.957 |
| transcript.gazette[8].speaker |
王委員世堅 |
| transcript.gazette[8].start |
2026-07-09T11:21:50.206000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[8].guessed |
|
| transcript.gazette[8].end |
2026-07-09T11:22:19.992000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[8].text |
而且我舉一個例子，你看，我們今年4月份才稍微放寬一下，一個月馬上就有24億元又湧入房市，照理說4月份正是高科技股、股市大好的時候，結果只要稍微一點點的放鬆，結果大筆的資金馬上又湧入房市。 |
| transcript.gazette[8].quality |
0.938 |
| transcript.gazette[9].speaker |
王委員世堅 |
| transcript.gazette[9].start |
2026-07-09T11:22:20.712000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[9].guessed |
|
| transcript.gazette[9].end |
2026-07-09T11:22:44.171000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[9].text |
而且會湧入房市我覺得有一部分原因是因為我們國內的房屋持有成本低，再加上囤房的代價小，我們的利率一直那麼低，所以富豪是坐擁多屋啦，但現在升斗小民是一宅難求！ |
| transcript.gazette[9].quality |
0.861 |
| transcript.gazette[10].speaker |
王委員世堅 |
| transcript.gazette[10].start |
2026-07-09T11:22:44.991000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[10].guessed |
|
| transcript.gazette[10].end |
2026-07-09T11:22:51.338000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[10].text |
所以我覺得我們繼續維持信用管制這個策略是非常正確的。 |
| transcript.gazette[10].quality |
0.88 |
| transcript.gazette[11].speaker |
王委員世堅 |
| transcript.gazette[11].start |
2026-07-09T11:22:52.059000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[11].guessed |
|
| transcript.gazette[11].end |
2026-07-09T11:23:23.338000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[11].text |
你看，連我們最保守的內政部在估住宅價格的時候，實質房價累積的漲幅來到25%，都高過澳洲、美國，甚至新加坡、南韓等這些國家，所以確確實實我們臺灣房價的漲幅在世界是名列前茅！ |
| transcript.gazette[11].quality |
0.973 |
| transcript.gazette[12].speaker |
王委員世堅 |
| transcript.gazette[12].start |
2026-07-09T11:23:24.039000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[12].guessed |
|
| transcript.gazette[12].end |
2026-07-09T11:23:28.002000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[12].text |
我希望維持信用管制這一點楊總裁你們能夠堅持，好不好？是！ |
| transcript.gazette[12].quality |
0.96 |
| transcript.gazette[13].speaker |
楊總裁金龍 |
| transcript.gazette[13].start |
2026-07-09T11:23:28.002000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[13].guessed |
1 |
| transcript.gazette[13].end |
2026-07-09T11:23:35.152000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[13].text |
謝謝委員的支持。 |
| transcript.gazette[13].quality |
0 |
| transcript.gazette[14].speaker |
王委員世堅 |
| transcript.gazette[14].start |
2026-07-09T11:23:35.152000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[14].guessed |
|
| transcript.gazette[14].end |
2026-07-09T11:24:10.378000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[14].text |
至於另外一點就是利率，針對利率我有一些看法可能要跟總裁探討一下，你看，光2022年這一年，美國2022年一年連調了4次、大概有3碼之多的利息，而我們我們連續三年連1碼也不調、1碼也沒有升。 |
| transcript.gazette[14].quality |
0.878 |
| transcript.gazette[15].speaker |
王委員世堅 |
| transcript.gazette[15].start |
2026-07-09T11:24:11.218000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[15].guessed |
|
| transcript.gazette[15].end |
2026-07-09T11:24:54.294000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[15].text |
當然，我知道你有多方面包括匯率的考量，關於我們出口的部分，可是總裁，我們的通貨膨脹CPI指數現在已經高到達到警戒線，都已經達到2%了，連你們自己的估計也是估今年第2季的通貨膨脹率達2.6%，你們甚至認為7月還會再2%以上，抱歉，這是主計總處的估計。 |
| transcript.gazette[15].quality |
0.935 |
| transcript.gazette[16].speaker |
王委員世堅 |
| transcript.gazette[16].start |
2026-07-09T11:24:54.294000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[16].guessed |
|
| transcript.gazette[16].end |
2026-07-09T11:25:08.511000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[16].text |
那你們當初預估今年第2季CPI指數2.1%，事實上還更高了，不是嗎？對。 |
| transcript.gazette[16].quality |
0.862 |
| transcript.gazette[17].speaker |
王委員世堅 |
| transcript.gazette[17].start |
2026-07-09T11:25:08.511000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[17].guessed |
|
| transcript.gazette[17].end |
2026-07-09T11:25:10.153000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[17].text |
事實上已經來到2.17%。是。 |
| transcript.gazette[17].quality |
0.8 |
| transcript.gazette[18].speaker |
王委員世堅 |
| transcript.gazette[18].start |
2026-07-09T11:25:10.153000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[18].guessed |
|
| transcript.gazette[18].end |
2026-07-09T11:25:25.585000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[18].text |
所以我認為當CPI高並且有點通膨、來到警戒線的時候，在國外都以適度的調高利率來調節物價，尤其是美國。 |
| transcript.gazette[18].quality |
0.848 |
| transcript.gazette[19].speaker |
王委員世堅 |
| transcript.gazette[19].start |
2026-07-09T11:25:30.083000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[19].guessed |
|
| transcript.gazette[19].end |
2026-07-09T11:25:50.373000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[19].text |
而在這一次你們的理監事會議裡面，當然以您的意見為主導，最後還是不調，但是當中有兩位理事也提起，是不是可以適度的用利率來控制通膨？ |
| transcript.gazette[19].quality |
1 |
| transcript.gazette[20].speaker |
王委員世堅 |
| transcript.gazette[20].start |
2026-07-09T11:25:50.373000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[20].guessed |
|
| transcript.gazette[20].end |
2026-07-09T11:26:26.932000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[20].text |
加上最近在AI產品有一個新名稱，這個新名稱就是AI通膨，總裁知道關於高科技產品、電子產品的原物料上漲，這一個部分因為AI需求強勁而帶動這些上漲，我們6月教養設備及用具的CPI年增率是7.39%，真的是符合AI通膨！ |
| transcript.gazette[20].quality |
0.885 |
| transcript.gazette[21].speaker |
王委員世堅 |
| transcript.gazette[21].start |
2026-07-09T11:26:26.932000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[21].guessed |
|
| transcript.gazette[21].end |
2026-07-09T11:26:56.784000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[21].text |
你從坊間去看，蘋果電腦現在漲幅上萬元，華碩電腦也預計漲15%到20%，所以AI通膨是關於民生的，大家都有感，因此為了維持物價的平穩，我們是不是應該適度的調整、調高利率，你的看法呢？ |
| transcript.gazette[21].quality |
0.818 |
| transcript.gazette[22].speaker |
楊總裁金龍 |
| transcript.gazette[22].start |
2026-07-09T11:26:58.185000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[22].guessed |
|
| transcript.gazette[22].end |
2026-07-09T11:27:38.650000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[22].text |
事實上，委員講得也沒有錯，當我們的物價指數超過2%以上就要考慮，不過我們這一次沒有把它……就是已經大概接近2%，我跟委員報告，以2%來講的話，基本上它比較屬於中長期的指標，在我們的報告裡面也有談到，包括一般的機構都認為明年我們的物價水準會下來。 |
| transcript.gazette[22].quality |
0.963 |
| transcript.gazette[23].speaker |
王委員世堅 |
| transcript.gazette[23].start |
2026-07-09T11:27:39.335000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[23].guessed |
|
| transcript.gazette[23].end |
2026-07-09T11:27:41.501000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[23].text |
你說的是哪一些機構？ |
| transcript.gazette[23].quality |
0.778 |
| transcript.gazette[24].speaker |
王委員世堅 |
| transcript.gazette[24].start |
2026-07-09T11:27:41.501000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[24].guessed |
1 |
| transcript.gazette[24].end |
2026-07-09T11:27:42.501000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[24].text |
都沒有啊…… |
| transcript.gazette[24].quality |
0 |
| transcript.gazette[25].speaker |
楊總裁金龍 |
| transcript.gazette[25].start |
2026-07-09T11:27:41.501000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[25].guessed |
|
| transcript.gazette[25].end |
2026-07-09T11:27:48.832000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[25].text |
你看看我們的報告裡面有，我們的報告第4頁。 |
| transcript.gazette[25].quality |
0.722 |
| transcript.gazette[26].speaker |
王委員世堅 |
| transcript.gazette[26].start |
2026-07-09T11:27:48.832000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[26].guessed |
|
| transcript.gazette[26].end |
2026-07-09T11:27:51.352000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[26].text |
在今天最新的這一份。 |
| transcript.gazette[26].quality |
0.667 |
| transcript.gazette[27].speaker |
楊總裁金龍 |
| transcript.gazette[27].start |
2026-07-09T11:27:51.693000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[27].guessed |
|
| transcript.gazette[27].end |
2026-07-09T11:28:11.357000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[27].text |
對，在最新的資料裡面，你看看我們的報告第4頁提到，20家主要機構對本年臺灣通膨的預測平均值為1.9%，今年是1.9%，但是明年它給我們1.7%，所以我們才會表示：顯示國內通膨預期尚屬穩定。 |
| transcript.gazette[27].quality |
0.831 |
| transcript.gazette[28].speaker |
楊總裁金龍 |
| transcript.gazette[28].start |
2026-07-09T11:28:11.817000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[28].guessed |
|
| transcript.gazette[28].end |
2026-07-09T11:28:36.120000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[28].text |
另外，委員講到美國調升利息的速度非常快，這個我也稍微解釋一下，當時美國的通膨到8%、9%、10%，那個時候我們臺灣只有百分之三點幾，相差很大！ |
| transcript.gazette[28].quality |
0.797 |
| transcript.gazette[29].speaker |
楊總裁金龍 |
| transcript.gazette[29].start |
2026-07-09T11:28:37.821000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[29].guessed |
|
| transcript.gazette[29].end |
2026-07-09T11:29:06.645000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[29].text |
我跟委員報告，美國的通膨到目前還有3.81%、他的CPI還有3.81%，而且這個3.81%到目前為止已經持續很久了，所以川普希望美國聯準會要調降利息，但是他遲遲不敢，為什麼？ |
| transcript.gazette[29].quality |
0.93 |
| transcript.gazette[30].speaker |
楊總裁金龍 |
| transcript.gazette[30].start |
2026-07-09T11:29:06.645000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[30].guessed |
|
| transcript.gazette[30].end |
2026-07-09T11:29:07.705000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[30].text |
因為他的通膨…… |
| transcript.gazette[30].quality |
1 |
| transcript.gazette[31].speaker |
王委員世堅 |
| transcript.gazette[31].start |
2026-07-09T11:29:07.725000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[31].guessed |
|
| transcript.gazette[31].end |
2026-07-09T11:29:09.486000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[31].text |
通膨現在還越來越加劇！對！ |
| transcript.gazette[31].quality |
0.727 |
| transcript.gazette[32].speaker |
楊總裁金龍 |
| transcript.gazette[32].start |
2026-07-09T11:29:10.506000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[32].guessed |
|
| transcript.gazette[32].end |
2026-07-09T11:29:11.286000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[32].text |
你看看我們的數字，現在是3.81%。 |
| transcript.gazette[32].quality |
0.692 |
| transcript.gazette[33].speaker |
王委員世堅 |
| transcript.gazette[33].start |
2026-07-09T11:29:11.286000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[33].guessed |
|
| transcript.gazette[33].end |
2026-07-09T11:29:25.974000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[33].text |
總裁，你的意思就是說，你根據另外幾家的共同預測認為明年會往下調……是！ |
| transcript.gazette[33].quality |
0.933 |
| transcript.gazette[34].speaker |
王委員世堅 |
| transcript.gazette[34].start |
2026-07-09T11:29:25.974000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[34].guessed |
|
| transcript.gazette[34].end |
2026-07-09T11:29:28.576000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[34].text |
所以會在2.7%左右？ |
| transcript.gazette[34].quality |
0.875 |
| transcript.gazette[35].speaker |
楊總裁金龍 |
| transcript.gazette[35].start |
2026-07-09T11:29:28.836000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[35].guessed |
|
| transcript.gazette[35].end |
2026-07-09T11:29:29.077000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[35].text |
1.7%左右。 |
| transcript.gazette[35].quality |
0.75 |
| transcript.gazette[36].speaker |
王委員世堅 |
| transcript.gazette[36].start |
2026-07-09T11:29:29.657000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[36].guessed |
|
| transcript.gazette[36].end |
2026-07-09T11:29:31.398000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[36].text |
基於這樣，所以你們還是維持不調？ |
| transcript.gazette[36].quality |
1 |
| transcript.gazette[37].speaker |
楊總裁金龍 |
| transcript.gazette[37].start |
2026-07-09T11:29:31.398000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[37].guessed |
1 |
| transcript.gazette[37].end |
2026-07-09T11:29:32.398000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[37].text |
對，是這樣子！ |
| transcript.gazette[37].quality |
0 |
| transcript.gazette[38].speaker |
王委員世堅 |
| transcript.gazette[38].start |
2026-07-09T11:29:31.398000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[38].guessed |
|
| transcript.gazette[38].end |
2026-07-09T11:29:51.249000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[38].text |
那我再舉一個例子，關於利率跟房價，我剛剛講到要透過信用管制，因為我們臺灣的房價已經漲到一般升斗小民沒有房子可以住，買不起嘛！ |
| transcript.gazette[38].quality |
0.877 |
| transcript.gazette[39].speaker |
王委員世堅 |
| transcript.gazette[39].start |
2026-07-09T11:29:51.989000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[39].guessed |
|
| transcript.gazette[39].end |
2026-07-09T11:30:56.392000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[39].text |
你看，這是從民國64年以來的表格，一直到96年到目前為止，民國64年時，當利率10.75的時候，房價是2萬、2萬3、5萬一直上來，而房價開始大漲，一下來到25萬的時候，利率降到7.75，民國78年剛好是一個分界點，來到民國89年，又是另外一個分界點，民國89年的時候，當時利率也是下滑到4.6，房價就一直飆高到平均60.3萬，這是中古屋的房價，你有管制之後，從64.6萬到現在平均60.3萬，但是利率是1.125。 |
| transcript.gazette[39].quality |
0.877 |
| transcript.gazette[40].speaker |
王委員世堅 |
| transcript.gazette[40].start |
2026-07-09T11:30:56.392000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[40].guessed |
|
| transcript.gazette[40].end |
2026-07-09T11:31:28.985000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[40].text |
所以如果我們從當初民國64年最高，也就是說這五十年來，利率從10.75降到1.125，房價從2萬塊上升了30倍，來到60.3，而每一次都是利率高，房價漲幅就會比較低，當利率低的時候，房價就大幅上漲，你可以看這一個關係圖，好不好？ |
| transcript.gazette[40].quality |
0.908 |
| transcript.gazette[41].speaker |
王委員世堅 |
| transcript.gazette[41].start |
2026-07-09T11:31:29.705000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[41].guessed |
|
| transcript.gazette[41].end |
2026-07-09T11:31:40.011000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[41].text |
看央行能不能從這一個關係圖裡面找出，看有哪一些你認為不對的地方，有什麼端倪，但是事實是如此，所以適度的調高利率，在通膨的時候可以抑制通膨，同時也可以抑制房價的漲幅。 |
| transcript.gazette[41].quality |
0.467 |
| transcript.gazette[42].speaker |
王委員世堅 |
| transcript.gazette[42].start |
2026-07-09T11:31:40.011000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[42].guessed |
1 |
| transcript.gazette[42].end |
2026-07-09T11:31:41.011000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[42].text |
我們臺灣房價之所以會被炒作到這麼高，就是因為大家持有的成本、囤房的成本太低了，都是因為利率，好不好？好。 |
| transcript.gazette[42].quality |
0.022 |
| transcript.gazette[43].speaker |
王委員世堅 |
| transcript.gazette[43].start |
2026-07-09T11:31:41.011000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[43].guessed |
1 |
| transcript.gazette[43].end |
2026-07-09T11:31:42.011000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[43].text |
好，謝謝。 |
| transcript.gazette[43].quality |
0 |
| transcript.gazette[44].speaker |
主席 |
| transcript.gazette[44].start |
2026-07-09T11:31:41.171000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[44].guessed |
|
| transcript.gazette[44].end |
2026-07-09T11:31:41.191000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[44].text |
謝謝，我們結束王世堅委員的質詢。 |
| transcript.gazette[44].quality |
0.429 |
| transcript.gazette[45].speaker |
主席 |
| transcript.gazette[45].start |
2026-07-09T11:31:41.691000+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[45].guessed |
1 |
| transcript.gazette[45].end |
2026-07-09T11:31:47.405286+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[45].text |
接下來鍾佳濱委員、鍾佳濱委員、鍾佳濱委員不在。 |
| transcript.gazette[45].quality |
0 |
| transcript.gazette[46].speaker |
主席 |
| transcript.gazette[46].start |
2026-07-09T11:31:47.705286+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[46].guessed |
1 |
| transcript.gazette[46].end |
2026-07-09T11:31:50.276714+08:00 |
| transcript.gazette[46].text |
接下來請羅明才委員。 |
| transcript.gazette[46].quality |
0 |
| gazette.lineno |
749 |
| gazette.blocks[0][0] |
王委員世堅：（11時19分）謝謝主席，我請央行楊總裁。 |
| gazette.blocks[1][0] |
主席：請總裁。 |
| gazette.blocks[2][0] |
楊總裁金龍：王委員早。 |
| gazette.blocks[3][0] |
王委員世堅：今年6月18號央行第2季理監事會議我歸納了兩大重點，第一個重點就是維持利率不調整；第二個就是針對維持信用管制的部分、打房的部分，一樣也是繼續維持，這一點很好，我今天要跟你探討的就是這兩件事情。 |
| gazette.blocks[3][1] |
第一件事情，我先從房市維持信用管制講起，總裁，我覺得這一點你們確實有堅持，這個風骨我非常肯定，因為這當中有很多房地產業者，甚至民間的大戶，他們透過各種方式還做成新聞，針對央行這個政策都一直用盡各種方法希望你們反轉。我看114年到現在115年5月，剛好在這兩年裡面，從開始管制以來，我們的目標要壓到房市占放款比例35%，到現在為止，兩年來我們已經從37.61%降到35.17%，我覺得這個目標算是有達成，所以我希望維持信用管制能夠繼續下去。 |
| gazette.blocks[3][2] |
為什麼呢？因為我們臺灣的房價確實在全世界可以說是數一數二，我們的房價指數過高，我們不但漲幅在全世界名列前茅。而且我舉一個例子，你看，我們今年4月份才稍微放寬一下，一個月馬上就有24億元又湧入房市，照理說4月份正是高科技股、股市大好的時候，結果只要稍微一點點的放鬆，結果大筆的資金馬上又湧入房市。而且會湧入房市我覺得有一部分原因是因為我們國內的房屋持有成本低，再加上囤房的代價小，我們的利率一直那麼低，所以富豪是坐擁多屋啦，但現在升斗小民是一宅難求！所以我覺得我們繼續維持信用管制這個策略是非常正確的。你看，連我們最保守的內政部在估住宅價格的時候，實質房價累積的漲幅來到25%，都高過澳洲、美國，甚至新加坡、南韓等這些國家，所以確確實實我們臺灣房價的漲幅在世界是名列前茅！我希望維持信用管制這一點楊總裁你們能夠堅持，好不好？ |
| gazette.blocks[4][0] |
楊總裁金龍：是！謝謝委員的支持。 |
| gazette.blocks[5][0] |
王委員世堅：至於另外一點就是利率，針對利率我有一些看法可能要跟總裁探討一下，你看，光2022年這一年，美國2022年一年連調了4次、大概有3碼之多的利息，而我們我們連續三年連1碼也不調、1碼也沒有升。當然，我知道你有多方面包括匯率的考量，關於我們出口的部分，可是總裁，我們的通貨膨脹CPI指數現在已經高到達到警戒線，都已經達到2%了，連你們自己的估計也是估今年第2季的通貨膨脹率達2.6%，你們甚至認為7月還會再2%以上，抱歉，這是主計總處的估計。那你們當初預估今年第2季CPI指數2.1%，事實上還更高了，不是嗎？ |
| gazette.blocks[6][0] |
楊總裁金龍：對。 |
| gazette.blocks[7][0] |
王委員世堅：事實上已經來到2.17%。 |
| gazette.blocks[8][0] |
楊總裁金龍：是。 |
| gazette.blocks[9][0] |
王委員世堅：所以我認為當CPI高並且有點通膨、來到警戒線的時候，在國外都以適度的調高利率來調節物價，尤其是美國。而在這一次你們的理監事會議裡面，當然以您的意見為主導，最後還是不調，但是當中有兩位理事也提起，是不是可以適度的用利率來控制通膨？加上最近在AI產品有一個新名稱，這個新名稱就是AI通膨，總裁知道關於高科技產品、電子產品的原物料上漲，這一個部分因為AI需求強勁而帶動這些上漲，我們6月教養設備及用具的CPI年增率是7.39%，真的是符合AI通膨！你從坊間去看，蘋果電腦現在漲幅上萬元，華碩電腦也預計漲15%到20%，所以AI通膨是關於民生的，大家都有感，因此為了維持物價的平穩，我們是不是應該適度的調整、調高利率，你的看法呢？ |
| gazette.blocks[10][0] |
楊總裁金龍：事實上，委員講得也沒有錯，當我們的物價指數超過2%以上就要考慮，不過我們這一次沒有把它……就是已經大概接近2%，我跟委員報告，以2%來講的話，基本上它比較屬於中長期的指標，在我們的報告裡面也有談到，包括一般的機構都認為明年我們的物價水準會下來。 |
| gazette.blocks[11][0] |
王委員世堅：你說的是哪一些機構？都沒有啊…… |
| gazette.blocks[12][0] |
楊總裁金龍：你看看我們的報告裡面有，我們的報告第4頁。 |
| gazette.blocks[13][0] |
王委員世堅：在今天最新的這一份。 |
| gazette.blocks[14][0] |
楊總裁金龍：對，在最新的資料裡面，你看看我們的報告第4頁提到，20家主要機構對本年臺灣通膨的預測平均值為1.9%，今年是1.9%，但是明年它給我們1.7%，所以我們才會表示：顯示國內通膨預期尚屬穩定。 |
| gazette.blocks[14][1] |
另外，委員講到美國調升利息的速度非常快，這個我也稍微解釋一下，當時美國的通膨到8%、9%、10%，那個時候我們臺灣只有百分之三點幾，相差很大！我跟委員報告，美國的通膨到目前還有3.81%、他的CPI還有3.81%，而且這個3.81%到目前為止已經持續很久了，所以川普希望美國聯準會要調降利息，但是他遲遲不敢，為什麼？因為他的通膨…… |
| gazette.blocks[15][0] |
王委員世堅：通膨現在還越來越加劇！ |
| gazette.blocks[16][0] |
楊總裁金龍：對！你看看我們的數字，現在是3.81%。 |
| gazette.blocks[17][0] |
王委員世堅：總裁，你的意思就是說，你根據另外幾家的共同預測認為明年會往下調…… |
| gazette.blocks[18][0] |
楊總裁金龍：是！ |
| gazette.blocks[19][0] |
王委員世堅：所以會在2.7%左右？ |
| gazette.blocks[20][0] |
楊總裁金龍：1.7%左右。 |
| gazette.blocks[21][0] |
王委員世堅：基於這樣，所以你們還是維持不調？ |
| gazette.blocks[22][0] |
楊總裁金龍：對，是這樣子！ |
| gazette.blocks[23][0] |
王委員世堅：那我再舉一個例子，關於利率跟房價，我剛剛講到要透過信用管制，因為我們臺灣的房價已經漲到一般升斗小民沒有房子可以住，買不起嘛！你看，這是從民國64年以來的表格，一直到96年到目前為止，民國64年時，當利率10.75的時候，房價是2萬、2萬3、5萬一直上來，而房價開始大漲，一下來到25萬的時候，利率降到7.75，民國78年剛好是一個分界點，來到民國89年，又是另外一個分界點，民國89年的時候，當時利率也是下滑到4.6，房價就一直飆高到平均60.3萬，這是中古屋的房價，你有管制之後，從64.6萬到現在平均60.3萬，但是利率是1.125。所以如果我們從當初民國64年最高，也就是說這五十年來，利率從10.75降到1.125，房價從2萬塊上升了30倍，來到60.3，而每一次都是利率高，房價漲幅就會比較低，當利率低的時候，房價就大幅上漲，你可以看這一個關係圖，好不好？看央行能不能從這一個關係圖裡面找出，看有哪一些你認為不對的地方，有什麼端倪，但是事實是如此，所以適度的調高利率，在通膨的時候可以抑制通膨，同時也可以抑制房價的漲幅。我們臺灣房價之所以會被炒作到這麼高，就是因為大家持有的成本、囤房的成本太低了，都是因為利率，好不好？ |
| gazette.blocks[24][0] |
楊總裁金龍：好。 |
| gazette.blocks[25][0] |
王委員世堅：好，謝謝。 |
| gazette.blocks[26][0] |
主席：謝謝，我們結束王世堅委員的質詢。 |
| gazette.blocks[26][1] |
接下來鍾佳濱委員、鍾佳濱委員、鍾佳濱委員不在。 |
| gazette.blocks[26][2] |
接下來請羅明才委員。 |
| gazette.agenda.page_end |
578 |
| gazette.agenda.meet_id |
委員會-11-5-20-21 |
| gazette.agenda.speakers[0] |
李彥秀 |
| gazette.agenda.speakers[1] |
林德福 |
| gazette.agenda.speakers[2] |
吳秉叡 |
| gazette.agenda.speakers[3] |
郭國文 |
| gazette.agenda.speakers[4] |
賴惠員 |
| gazette.agenda.speakers[5] |
林岱樺 |
| gazette.agenda.speakers[6] |
劉書彬 |
| gazette.agenda.speakers[7] |
賴士葆 |
| gazette.agenda.speakers[8] |
李坤城 |
| gazette.agenda.speakers[9] |
陳玉珍 |
| gazette.agenda.speakers[10] |
林思銘 |
| gazette.agenda.speakers[11] |
王世堅 |
| gazette.agenda.speakers[12] |
羅明才 |
| gazette.agenda.speakers[13] |
邱志偉 |
| gazette.agenda.speakers[14] |
葉元之 |
| gazette.agenda.speakers[15] |
洪毓祥 |
| gazette.agenda.speakers[16] |
顏寬恒 |
| gazette.agenda.page_start |
527 |
| gazette.agenda.meetingDate[0] |
2026-07-09 |
| gazette.agenda.gazette_id |
1156102 |
| gazette.agenda.agenda_lcidc_ids[0] |
1156102_00004 |
| gazette.agenda.meet_name |
立法院第11屆第5會期財政委員會第21次全體委員會議紀錄 |
| gazette.agenda.content |
邀請中央銀行楊總裁金龍就「股市、通膨、匯率與房市多重風險中，中央銀行中長期因應策略與
政策工具」進行專題報告，並備質詢 |
| gazette.agenda.agenda_id |
1156102_00003 |