| IVOD_ID |
170394 |
| IVOD_URL |
https://ivod.ly.gov.tw/Play/Clip/1M/170394 |
| 日期 |
2026-07-09 |
| 會議資料.會議代碼 |
委員會-11-5-20-21 |
| 會議資料.會議代碼:str |
第11屆第5會期財政委員會第21次全體委員會議 |
| 會議資料.屆 |
11 |
| 會議資料.會期 |
5 |
| 會議資料.會次 |
21 |
| 會議資料.種類 |
委員會 |
| 會議資料.委員會代碼[0] |
20 |
| 會議資料.委員會代碼:str[0] |
財政委員會 |
| 會議資料.標題 |
第11屆第5會期財政委員會第21次全體委員會議 |
| 影片種類 |
Clip |
| 開始時間 |
2026-07-09T09:18:01+08:00 |
| 結束時間 |
2026-07-09T09:28:15+08:00 |
| 影片長度 |
00:10:14 |
| 支援功能[0] |
ai-transcript |
| video_url |
https://ivod-lyvod.cdn.hinet.net/vod_1/_definst_/mp4:1MClips/819c86070d9120f7ebfae4810612f31bc6cfcebe9e65517088a3391fde028545c85f38e9dc6d1ac45ea18f28b6918d91.mp4/playlist.m3u8 |
| 委員名稱 |
吳秉叡 |
| 委員發言時間 |
09:18:01 - 09:28:15 |
| 會議時間 |
2026-07-09T09:00:00+08:00 |
| 會議名稱 |
立法院第11屆第5會期財政委員會第21次全體委員會議（事由：邀請中央銀行楊總裁金龍就「股市、通膨、匯率與房市多重風險中，中央銀行中長期因應策略與政策工具」進行專題報告，並備質詢。
【7月8日及9日兩天一次會】） |
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董事長 |
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本來大家都認為說阿美伊是不是要達成和平談判確認結果伊朗又去對赫姆斯海峽通行的船隻發射了飛彈所以又引起兩個直接的衝突這是這一兩天最新的變化你認為這個變化會有什麼影響就是說 |
| transcript.whisperx[2].start |
41.224 |
| transcript.whisperx[2].end |
55.816 |
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這個會對市場 本來就是說市場它是在慢慢的一個calm down下來但是好像看起來 雙方之間的這個默契還不是非常的堅固 |
| transcript.whisperx[3].start |
57.217 |
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59.799 |
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所以偶爾還會有小衝突所以也就是說油價本來是已經跌到70現貨布蘭特已經跌到像我們報告裡面就跌到跟戰爭之前的都一樣不過這一兩天又稍微反彈回來 |
| transcript.whisperx[4].start |
79.955 |
| transcript.whisperx[4].end |
96.715 |
| transcript.whisperx[4].text |
不過這個就是說這種uncertainty市場還是會press in會把它考慮進去那這個也就是說還是值得去密切的關注它我的看法是我個人的觀點我認為伊朗 |
| transcript.whisperx[5].start |
99.317 |
| transcript.whisperx[5].end |
122.466 |
| transcript.whisperx[5].text |
這個國家內部對於和談還有很嚴重的分歧可能鴿派的願意和談還有鷹派的在和談中還會想辦法動用他手上可以運用的武力對這個和談也會有破壞的效果所以伊朗本身內部可能意見沒有很一致產生這個結果就使得這個動盪的時間可能會延長所以這個不確定性就會 |
| transcript.whisperx[6].start |
128.388 |
| transcript.whisperx[6].end |
140.176 |
| transcript.whisperx[6].text |
會再增加 是 是 我分析得很好那現在那個美國新的聯準會主席花旗 是 是他上台之後 對那本來大家就是期望說是不是 |
| transcript.whisperx[7].start |
141.311 |
| transcript.whisperx[7].end |
165.563 |
| transcript.whisperx[7].text |
有可能因為川普的意見他是想要降低利率因為美國國債那麼多他利率那麼高他還這個利率對他來講是一個非常大的負擔對美國財政來講是非常不利所以他長期來講當然希望降低利率可是跟現實的狀況是會有一些距離第一個衝突沒有結束這個 |
| transcript.whisperx[8].start |
168.359 |
| transcript.whisperx[8].end |
194.598 |
| transcript.whisperx[8].text |
很有趣啊我也聽川普自己在推特上面講自己在社群上面講說非農就業增加那麼多代表美國的經濟很強勁這當然是上個月的事這個月非農就業是不如預期的那經濟強勁你們說也要升息經濟不行你們也要升息所以這個是 |
| transcript.whisperx[9].start |
196.658 |
| transcript.whisperx[9].end |
201.803 |
| transcript.whisperx[9].text |
是不是會有一點矛盾在美國要怎麼樣做他才有比較有機會能夠降息美國呢會在於就是說他的勞動市場確實就像委員說的就是說他的那個非農就業的這個情況也就是說他的勞動市場也就是說他的勞動市場確實是已經是Drop的很厲害 |
| transcript.whisperx[10].start |
222.782 |
| transcript.whisperx[10].end |
247.843 |
| transcript.whisperx[10].text |
但是看起來好像他是好不好一點點然後又是好所以就是說就像剛剛委員在講事實上美國的經濟啊以目前來跟其他的先進國家來比較的話美國金是最好的金是最好的那問題是美國的利率降不下來一直會是高利率就會造成美國的過度美元的過度強勢你看最近美元是超級強勢 |
| transcript.whisperx[11].start |
249.144 |
| transcript.whisperx[11].end |
268.681 |
| transcript.whisperx[11].text |
除了中國這個外匯管制國家那個部分之外其他的主要貨幣對美元都是貶值的那原因就是你美元的利率那麼高錢有一個特徵錢會往獲利高的地方去水往低處流錢往獲利高的地方去你想想看 |
| transcript.whisperx[12].start |
269.946 |
| transcript.whisperx[12].end |
297.383 |
| transcript.whisperx[12].text |
大家說為什麼日幣會越來越弱因為就算日本央行升息它的利率才有一%而已啊那美國的話3%多 將近4%那如果日本的貸款是容易的話從日本貸款換成美元去美國投資還可以賺利率先不管匯差的問題那何況看起來美元繼續強勢那匯差反而還會賺雙重賺 不會只有賺利率所以這是會導致美元很過度強勢 |
| transcript.whisperx[13].start |
298.524 |
| transcript.whisperx[13].end |
316.194 |
| transcript.whisperx[13].text |
那這個美元一直過度強勢喔對台灣到底是好還是不好 你的看法美元強勢的話 基本上因為美元雖然是強勢 沒有錯啦就是說它的利率也比較高啦不過呢 我總覺得我們台灣的經濟也很好啦 |
| transcript.whisperx[14].start |
316.914 |
| transcript.whisperx[14].end |
320.116 |
| transcript.whisperx[14].text |
我們台灣的經濟也很好基本上你看看我們的出口經濟成長率那麼高出口也非常好我們的物價也控制得好所以基本上這些基本條件可以作為抵擋美元強勢的一個情況 |
| transcript.whisperx[15].start |
336.011 |
| transcript.whisperx[15].end |
347.662 |
| transcript.whisperx[15].text |
對 但是當然我們如果台灣的錢我們如果比較不好的名字叫熱錢啦也跑到美國去那也想要賺他的利率想要賺他的匯率那這會導致這個 |
| transcript.whisperx[16].start |
350.936 |
| transcript.whisperx[16].end |
376.527 |
| transcript.whisperx[16].text |
外匯的增加就是流到美元區去那這個當然會導致台幣的貶值那台幣的貶值對台灣來講有利有弊啊利的是出口的時候我的這個報價的時候是跟人家覺得說你就是比以前便宜啦當然這個是比較因為別的國家韓國還有其他國家搞不好就更便宜因為他們貶的更多但是你台灣受不了強勢啊因為強勢的話我們的我們是一個 |
| transcript.whisperx[17].start |
379.696 |
| transcript.whisperx[17].end |
394.944 |
| transcript.whisperx[17].text |
出口導向的國家我們其實需要做很多的外貿所以也不能過度強勢當然現在美元是強勢可是我們在其他貨幣裡面相對的台幣還是比其他貨幣貶的要少就是總裁你剛剛講因為我們這邊的各種好的條件這樣長期累積下來對我們的製造業會有什麼樣的影響 |
| transcript.whisperx[18].start |
402.408 |
| transcript.whisperx[18].end |
427.682 |
| transcript.whisperx[18].text |
我想就是說基本上我們比較不擔心說美元強勢就是說它利率高基本上我們的外匯我們的廠商的外匯的供需基本上它是比較平衡我的意思就是說我們自己的廠商是比較平衡倒是外資的供需比較不平衡 |
| transcript.whisperx[19].start |
428.972 |
| transcript.whisperx[19].end |
451.678 |
| transcript.whisperx[19].text |
外資的這個部分特別是外資的這個部分第一個它有股率的時候它那個股率也蠻大的都是由它分配的所以我們稍微就是比較我們匯率的一個波動主要我個人是覺得是外資的進出比較能夠影響到我們的匯率 |
| transcript.whisperx[20].start |
452.378 |
| transcript.whisperx[20].end |
474.051 |
| transcript.whisperx[20].text |
倒是我們本身的廠商呢不會就說是因為美國的利率高然後大家出去啦不是製造業的問題是資本市場的問題資本市場的問題錢跑來跑去是是是主要的還是資本市場因為美國最近有很多大公司他在證券市場在籌資像譬如說過去SPEX現在未來幾間大公司 |
| transcript.whisperx[21].start |
475.592 |
| transcript.whisperx[21].end |
499.74 |
| transcript.whisperx[21].text |
要去預購那個股票的時候就要先鎖定資金因為鎖都鎖很大甚至鎖到幾千億美金那金額是非常大所以他從整個亞洲股是抽了很多美元美金回去美國所以是這幾天我們的成交量也好我們的動能稍微有不足的狀況所以但是央行在面對這樣的狀況的時候 |
| transcript.whisperx[22].start |
501.482 |
| transcript.whisperx[22].end |
512.654 |
| transcript.whisperx[22].text |
如果它過度流動你又必須稍微你剛剛前面委員講的那個流資效應你也會稍微要干預一點要調節一下流動性要調節用調節這個名詞是比較好問題是你在調節的時候你要注意到 |
| transcript.whisperx[23].start |
518.641 |
| transcript.whisperx[23].end |
537.956 |
| transcript.whisperx[23].text |
如何讓美國能夠了解因為他一直在注意我們還是一個外匯管制的問題事實上我跟委員報告第一個我們是管理沒有管制事實上資金外資要進出進出都相當第二點第二 |
| transcript.whisperx[24].start |
541.479 |
| transcript.whisperx[24].end |
554.236 |
| transcript.whisperx[24].text |
講到那個委員講到美國的財政部啊我跟委員報告事實上呢我們跟美國財政部溝通非常良好他們了解就是說我們在市場的一個市場的那個調節的情況呢他們都 |
| transcript.whisperx[25].start |
557.02 |
| transcript.whisperx[25].end |
585.411 |
| transcript.whisperx[25].text |
他們都非常了解而且我們對他也非常坦白我們也不會就是說隱瞞什麼事情不會包括就是說我們這一季我們干預多少我們都公佈啊我們都公佈那個數據啊都是千真萬確的所以他對我們呢也是相當相當信任的兩個國家之間對於這個外匯這個來往這個有這樣子的信任跟事實都非常重要這很重要啦因為我們受不了被美國 |
| transcript.whisperx[26].start |
587.312 |
| transcript.whisperx[26].end |
609.507 |
| transcript.whisperx[26].text |
當然這個機會非常的小但是我們因為有很努力在做這個工作溝通的工作要持續我到現在還是一直我的觀點是央行對台灣最重要就是要穩定物價那當然穩定物價就跟利率跟匯率都有關係那這個大家很努力啦謝謝你我覺得央行工作做得很好謝謝謝謝委員的鼓勵支持謝謝我們 |