| IVOD_ID |
168026 |
| IVOD_URL |
https://ivod.ly.gov.tw/Play/Clip/1M/168026 |
| 日期 |
2026-03-30 |
| 會議資料.會議代碼 |
委員會-11-5-20-6 |
| 會議資料.會議代碼:str |
第11屆第5會期財政委員會第6次全體委員會議 |
| 會議資料.屆 |
11 |
| 會議資料.會期 |
5 |
| 會議資料.會次 |
6 |
| 會議資料.種類 |
委員會 |
| 會議資料.委員會代碼[0] |
20 |
| 會議資料.委員會代碼:str[0] |
財政委員會 |
| 會議資料.標題 |
第11屆第5會期財政委員會第6次全體委員會議 |
| 影片種類 |
Clip |
| 開始時間 |
2026-03-30T11:01:57+08:00 |
| 結束時間 |
2026-03-30T11:13:40+08:00 |
| 影片長度 |
00:11:43 |
| 支援功能[0] |
ai-transcript |
| video_url |
https://ivod-lyvod.cdn.hinet.net/vod_1/_definst_/mp4:1MClips/d0265d86f2f18c67708ae16714c073f75334e86b5f84e1acb7080941cab810cc05516ffde792dc4e5ea18f28b6918d91.mp4/playlist.m3u8 |
| 委員名稱 |
林思銘 |
| 委員發言時間 |
11:01:57 - 11:13:40 |
| 會議時間 |
2026-03-30T09:00:00+08:00 |
| 會議名稱 |
立法院第11屆第5會期財政委員會第6次全體委員會議（事由：邀請中央銀行楊總裁金龍率所屬單位主管暨財金資訊股份有限公司董事長列席業務報告，並備質詢。） |
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主席請我們央行楊總裁麻煩請中央央行楊總裁總裁早 |
| transcript.whisperx[1].start |
14.651 |
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林委員早是總裁我想這個我國的經濟成長率是去年是高達百分之八點六三創下十五年來的新高紀錄對主計總處在這個二月份上修今年的經濟成長率預測大概百分之七點七一對那我們央行也同步上修預測值為百分之七點二八對那利率也連八動對 |
| transcript.whisperx[2].start |
42.893 |
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65.107 |
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所以請問這個總裁啊隨著現在中東戰爭的爆發看起來短期內不會結束喔是那油價持續上漲那物價連著也被帶動一直上漲喔全球停滯性的通膨恐怕會來臨啊嗯嗯嗯總裁你認為經濟成長率還有您現在預估的這麼樂觀嗎 |
| transcript.whisperx[3].start |
68.272 |
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73.903 |
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我跟委員報告 事實上我一直認為以目前來講的話我們的經濟應該來講都是還穩健的 |
| transcript.whisperx[4].start |
78.036 |
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102.666 |
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目前還是很穩健的你看看我們1月2月當然1月2月那是戰事以前的戰事以後我們就是必須要觀察它就是說觀察我們的3月我們的4月5月6月那我們3月我們做這樣的預測的時候是在3月的時候也就是說它戰爭剛好就只有一半的時候 |
| transcript.whisperx[5].start |
103.526 |
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130.215 |
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所以在很短的時間呢我們的scenario呢我們是說那個那個油價呢大概在全年呢從58.3上漲你剛提到你大概你是從3月你這個預測3月中3月看的嘛預測推出出來的嘛但是面對現在的情勢我有看今天的這個不管是媒體啊 |
| transcript.whisperx[6].start |
130.895 |
| transcript.whisperx[6].end |
145.769 |
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都大幅報導 戰事會繼續升溫喔會帶動油價的上漲喔那我們看股匯市啊 今天的股市啊今天也在下跌 今天下跌了700多點喔所以你原來預測未來的經濟的成長動能會持續強勁向上 |
| transcript.whisperx[7].start |
154.017 |
| transcript.whisperx[7].end |
171.731 |
| transcript.whisperx[7].text |
你聽我講完啦民間的消費能力你熱錢也會增加但是目前中東戰事進入第五週情勢繼續升溫大幅的推升全球的這個這個油市航運業 |
| transcript.whisperx[8].start |
172.992 |
| transcript.whisperx[8].end |
189.491 |
| transcript.whisperx[8].text |
及供應鏈陷入不確定性尤其是我們的加工產業鍛煉加劇這個氦氣肥料化學品的起漲低價石油已成過去世全球面臨停滯性的通膨風暴 |
| transcript.whisperx[9].start |
190.952 |
| transcript.whisperx[9].end |
209.102 |
| transcript.whisperx[9].text |
經濟學者與金融機構高度擔憂啊油市供應遭遇的兩大壓力啊會遭遇兩大壓力啊就是那個和睦之海峽被封鎖所以經濟的加速成長是無望的喔目前的局勢的演變是這樣喔所以央行 |
| transcript.whisperx[10].start |
210.743 |
| transcript.whisperx[10].end |
231.173 |
| transcript.whisperx[10].text |
您怎麼能夠這個到目前為止還該總裁我聽你講好像你還是講很樂觀我們也不是說很樂觀我們是審慎樂觀但是呢 我想我們也不會就是說我們的這個情境的分析就一直停留在這個 85塊 |
| transcript.whisperx[11].start |
233.454 |
| transcript.whisperx[11].end |
253.465 |
| transcript.whisperx[11].text |
那如果說就像委員現在戰爭好像也不是說很短時間就會結束啦而且優價可能會上升所以這個都是在我們關注的主題當中所以你應該提到嘛一定要審慎的去因應是是是沒有錯沒有錯這戰爭看起來就是持續在升溫短期沒有那麼快結束嘛對對對 |
| transcript.whisperx[12].start |
261.169 |
| transcript.whisperx[12].end |
285.574 |
| transcript.whisperx[12].text |
我們看到伊朗對於中東能源基礎設施的攻擊使得波斯灣石油天然氣以及其他重要的原物料出口受阻培莫斯海峽是全球能源運輸的關鍵通道所以它現在被封閉起來不僅推高能源價格也提高企業生產的成本抑制消費需求尤其是非必要支出 |
| transcript.whisperx[13].start |
286.754 |
| transcript.whisperx[13].end |
313.758 |
| transcript.whisperx[13].text |
進而拖累了經濟的成長甚至可能引發衰退同時同盟的壓力升溫使得各國央行被迫放棄降息計畫甚至轉向升息加劇經濟壓力蘇總裁請教你央行未來是否也會適度的跟各國的央行一樣因應中東的戰事去採取升息的措施 |
| transcript.whisperx[14].start |
316.621 |
| transcript.whisperx[14].end |
330.128 |
| transcript.whisperx[14].text |
我在我們的記者會裡就是說李監事會完之後的記者會裡面我也有同樣的就是說中央銀行目前的態度是比較朝向緊縮的一個態度緊縮對緊縮的態度還是繼續動載 |
| transcript.whisperx[15].start |
333.85 |
| transcript.whisperx[15].end |
336.554 |
| transcript.whisperx[15].text |
那繼續緊縮所以要傾向但是採取緊縮的一個政策這個現在還不是時候是 |
| transcript.whisperx[16].start |
349.288 |
| transcript.whisperx[16].end |
373.258 |
| transcript.whisperx[16].text |
目前這個情勢那麼緊張通膨的壓力一直來所以也就是說我們focus的是1.8%1.8%應該還是在我們的總整範圍之內總裁我接下來跟你討論通膨風險值的問題物價穩定向來是我們各國央行尤其我們中央雲南也是最重要的核心目標 |
| transcript.whisperx[17].start |
374.959 |
| transcript.whisperx[17].end |
388.593 |
| transcript.whisperx[17].text |
在中東歧視的升溫下全球經濟不確定性持續升高預測短期的通膨風險掌握驅動物價變動的關鍵因素已成為我們貨幣政策的重要課題 |
| transcript.whisperx[18].start |
390.074 |
| transcript.whisperx[18].end |
416.747 |
| transcript.whisperx[18].text |
因此本席看到央行最新的研究指出未來可建構通膨風險值作為輔助工具從整體的分布角度分析未來通膨可能的區間與發生的機率有助提升貨幣政策判斷的精準度與簡單性所以請問這個總裁通膨呈現高度不確定甚至具有跳躍式的上升風險 |
| transcript.whisperx[19].start |
418.268 |
| transcript.whisperx[19].end |
422.581 |
| transcript.whisperx[19].text |
這個時候還能用平均數來決策嗎會不會有落後現實的情況 |
| transcript.whisperx[20].start |
424.346 |
| transcript.whisperx[20].end |
451.687 |
| transcript.whisperx[20].text |
我跟委員報告事實上您說的也沒有錯因為現在大部分現在大部分都是用平均數就是都是用一個不是說基本就像說我們58.3把它提升到85那如果說把這個概念放進去的時候呢這個就是一個機率的分配的一個問題 |
| transcript.whisperx[21].start |
452.988 |
| transcript.whisperx[21].end |
478.681 |
| transcript.whisperx[21].text |
那也就是說好那最差的一個scenario可能是100那最佳的一個optimistic的scenario是什麼是70那這樣的話它就有一個range它就有一個range就是說在這一段期間可能它的通膨可能就會在這個range裡面那它所發生的機率大概是多少 |
| transcript.whisperx[22].start |
479.721 |
| transcript.whisperx[22].end |
493.153 |
| transcript.whisperx[22].text |
他是把機率這個是比較科學啦比較統計統計的方法那這個是比較那這個呢我們都是正在你現在研究還在研究中嘛那是否有已經有具體的數據啊 |
| transcript.whisperx[23].start |
494.494 |
| transcript.whisperx[23].end |
523.082 |
| transcript.whisperx[23].text |
因為我們說我們在最壞的環境下通膨可能是多少機率的分佈是怎樣是是是有沒有這樣的數據我們只能說我們只能說這個這個也有100的那個的scenario但是呢它的probability是到底多少因為probability啊這個可能我一部分那個總裁我是要問你啦你現在已經在走水研究了對但是你現在的研究是已經 |
| transcript.whisperx[24].start |
524.522 |
| transcript.whisperx[24].end |
542.533 |
| transcript.whisperx[24].text |
已經完備沒有 我們準備把它納入我們未來的決策的階段都還沒有啦 只是一個在內的行程而已啦我想過去幾年我們全球發生最大的錯誤就是低估極端通膨的發生機率啦疫情後的通膨爆衝 到現在戰爭與能源的衝擊 |
| transcript.whisperx[25].start |
545.735 |
| transcript.whisperx[25].end |
566.267 |
| transcript.whisperx[25].text |
都是典型的尾端風險成真所以目前央行的政策模型中是否有納入比如說油價暴漲的情境比如說煤桶現在可能會漲破超過150美元區域戰爭擴大全球供應鏈可能會再度中斷 |
| transcript.whisperx[26].start |
567.748 |
| transcript.whisperx[26].end |
590.945 |
| transcript.whisperx[26].text |
所以我們的政策模型中有沒有納入這樣的一些情境的分析啊我想喔 委員我們也會有這樣的一個在概念上我們的那個我們Focus裡面也有這樣的一個概念啦但是呢我們不便在這邊講說如果說到200塊的時候250塊的時候呢它會怎麼樣怎麼樣怎麼樣 |
| transcript.whisperx[27].start |
596.168 |
| transcript.whisperx[27].end |
613.1 |
| transcript.whisperx[27].text |
我覺得這個不適合在這種沒有就是說你用這種沒有發生你是不用講出來的但是你這個模型中會納入這種情境分析吧我們這個情境應該會納入吧但是我們不會就是說這樣就把它公開出來的最後一題我再請教你 |
| transcript.whisperx[28].start |
615.982 |
| transcript.whisperx[28].end |
638.438 |
| transcript.whisperx[28].text |
我關美國政府近期又再啟動新一輪的301條款的調查我國也被列入為調查國家之一行政院表示台美已簽署台美對登貿易協定就是ART不會受這樣調查的影響總裁我想請問你這次被列入調查名單對於未來我們台幣匯率的走向可能會有怎樣的影響 |
| transcript.whisperx[29].start |
639.478 |
| transcript.whisperx[29].end |
653.592 |
| transcript.whisperx[29].text |
匯率操縱也是美國的調查終點這次我國再次被列入是否表示對美國而言仍然認為我們可能有事在操縱匯率不會啦我跟委員報告絕對不會所以也不會影響我們台美對待貿易的協定也不會影響 |
| transcript.whisperx[30].start |
661.74 |
| transcript.whisperx[30].end |
689.918 |
| transcript.whisperx[30].text |
就是他即便我們被進入這個沒有就匯率的這個部分呢這個匯率的部分是我們跟財政部而且匯率的這個部分是不是商務部的所管轄的範圍而是財政部管轄的範圍我們是跟財政部一個溝通我也跟委員報告我們歷年以來跟美國財政部的溝通都非常的順利OK 好 |
| transcript.whisperx[31].start |
691.079 |
| transcript.whisperx[31].end |
694.044 |
| transcript.whisperx[31].text |
好謝謝林委員下一位資訊委員請嚴寬恆委員質詢 |