| IVOD_ID |
165185 |
| IVOD_URL |
https://ivod.ly.gov.tw/Play/Clip/1M/165185 |
| 日期 |
2025-11-07 |
| 會議資料.會議代碼 |
院會-11-4-8 |
| 會議資料.會議代碼:str |
第11屆第4會期第8次會議 |
| 會議資料.屆 |
11 |
| 會議資料.會期 |
4 |
| 會議資料.會次 |
8 |
| 會議資料.種類 |
院會 |
| 會議資料.標題 |
第11屆第4會期第8次會議 |
| 影片種類 |
Clip |
| 開始時間 |
2025-11-07T14:31:03+08:00 |
| 結束時間 |
2025-11-07T15:01:36+08:00 |
| 影片長度 |
00:30:33 |
| 支援功能[0] |
ai-transcript |
| video_url |
https://ivod-lyvod.cdn.hinet.net/vod_1/_definst_/mp4:1MClips/7b2debd084f055f0ee043de442a32249da8d1794993bca4437c4dc073b7ad873eac46a44ad82f52c5ea18f28b6918d91.mp4/playlist.m3u8 |
| 委員名稱 |
牛煦庭 |
| 委員發言時間 |
14:31:03 - 15:01:36 |
| 會議時間 |
2025-11-07T09:00:00+08:00 |
| 會議名稱 |
第11屆第4會期第8次會議（事由：一、同意權之行使事項：本院交通、教育及文化兩委員會報告審查行政院函送國家通訊傳播委員會委員提名名單，蔣榮先為委員並為主任委員，程明修為委員並為副主任委員，黃葳威及羅慧雯均為委員，請同意案。（11月7日上午報告事項後）二、對行政院院長施政報告繼續質詢。（11月7日下午及11日）三、11月7日上午9時至10時為國是論壇時間。） |
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好 謝謝主席 卓院長有請麻煩請卓院長備詢 |
| transcript.whisperx[1].start |
19.366 |
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牛委員好 恭喜牛委員榮英新職希望未來我們互相鼓勵 互相加油 共同合作謝謝卓院長的肯定但我們今天還是要針對重大的議題進行討論這個外貿是台灣的產業命脈 |
| transcript.whisperx[2].start |
36.169 |
| transcript.whisperx[2].end |
51.177 |
| transcript.whisperx[2].text |
這個自由流通而且順暢的國際貿易的環境是台灣過去經濟奇蹟現在新一波的成功不可或缺的關鍵因素因此我想對焦世界的局勢掌握國際的脈動應該是政府很重要的責任院長同意我這樣說嗎 |
| transcript.whisperx[3].start |
52.714 |
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70.866 |
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今天我們總諮詢的主題叫做中美的單邊主義產業的雙重威脅院長你知不知道什麼叫做單邊主義單邊主義從某一個國家自己的角度跟立場跟利益來出發維護自己的所有的利益那麼會跟以前所說的全球的 |
| transcript.whisperx[4].start |
71.266 |
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90.454 |
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主義會有一點相排斥的作用會有一點相排斥 沒錯國際上來講單邊主義指國家單方面的行動這樣一個行動可能無視其他的當事人不對其他的當事方進行什麼特定的承諾往往帶有民族主義 霸權主義等等的色彩通常是具有一定的實力跟影響力的組織才會奉行所謂的單邊主義 |
| transcript.whisperx[5].start |
91.714 |
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115.712 |
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現在的國際局勢空前的混亂川普政府上任之後對全世界發動了貿易戰跟關稅的措施請問院長認為在美國對我們的關稅談判裡面美國對台灣是不是採行了單邊主義我認為是美國一個國家對全世界多數的國家進行多數不同形態內容的雙邊談判的一種行為 |
| transcript.whisperx[6].start |
116.973 |
| transcript.whisperx[6].end |
119.736 |
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因為美國有一些力量他是主導世界一些經貿的走向跟政治的發展 |
| transcript.whisperx[7].start |
131.209 |
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159.04 |
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所以在這個情況底下他當然有區域上的一些責任但是就經濟上來講他還是需要跟世界其他的國家跟經濟組織共同合作才能獲得全面的發展跟平衡的進步以美國來講他當然具有剛剛院長有講他具備實際上的影響力舉足輕重那麼川普政府的MAGA基本上有濃濃的這個民族主義的色彩他單方面的對全世界課徵的關稅並沒有經過商量一個程序 |
| transcript.whisperx[8].start |
159.48 |
| transcript.whisperx[8].end |
179.907 |
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所以院長他到底是不是藍邊主義基本上還是有經過一些談判的過程比方說我國跟美國的談判當中我們就一直堅持我們的台灣模式這也是一個談判的過程至於歐盟日韓也都有相同的程序在進行過沒關係我們接著往下談我們再來討論這個問題 |
| transcript.whisperx[9].start |
181.207 |
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210.539 |
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在承接我們上一次總質詢上一次總質詢我們花了非常多的時間去談台美之間的關稅談判很多人都逼問進度等等大概也都沒有下文我們就不再贅述但目前的關稅談判啊如剛剛講 卓院長講他比較傾向一個雙邊的對等的談判那雙邊的對等談判照理來講雙邊都應該得到一些好處嘛對不對 互利然後達成一個協議才是所謂的雙邊對等但目前為止我們的關稅談判除了止損之外真的有額外的好處嗎我唸一段這是最新的嘛經貿談判辦公室的新聞嘛 |
| transcript.whisperx[10].start |
210.999 |
| transcript.whisperx[10].end |
228.319 |
| transcript.whisperx[10].text |
最近已經進入第五輪的實體磋商進入了視訊會議已經準備進入總結會商的階段要簽一個台美的貿易協議那談判的重點我們要的是調降關稅避免最惠國的MFN的稅率重疊也希望232條款有多一點的豁免 |
| transcript.whisperx[11].start |
229.64 |
| transcript.whisperx[11].end |
255.183 |
| transcript.whisperx[11].text |
是人家丟了一個關稅在我們頭上然後我們盡量談不希望這個關稅太高可是除了這些東西以外這個東西叫做止損就是我不要受傷太重對不對那除了止損之外有沒有什麼具體的利多呢有或沒有以目前你們掌握的訊息基本上一開始的原因在於美方他要解決他的貿易逆差跟財政的赤字所以他認為說對他有貿易逆差的國家來看 |
| transcript.whisperx[12].start |
255.563 |
| transcript.whisperx[12].end |
278.622 |
| transcript.whisperx[12].text |
他必須要從貿易的平衡上面來取得雙邊的平衡那我國剛好ICT產業跟其他的電子零組件對美方是有高度的我方的順差的所以他會列為一個重點的對象就我們來講我們如果對美方採取基於我們自己在產業自主發展上面的共同的需求的美方包括全球的佈局 |
| transcript.whisperx[13].start |
279.042 |
| transcript.whisperx[13].end |
296.745 |
| transcript.whisperx[13].text |
那對我們來講也是一個力量的延伸我很懷疑這樣說法的真實性因為普遍上大家都擔心的是產業的空洞化你聽我講完而且談判的標的嘛我剛問的是我們要的是關稅不要太高對不對20加N怎麼樣來做豁免232能不能開幾條路讓我們的ICT還有點活路 |
| transcript.whisperx[14].start |
297.465 |
| transcript.whisperx[14].end |
326.545 |
| transcript.whisperx[14].text |
這個不是利多我舉個例子給你聽這個韓國在談判的時候他是不是談了一個貿易協議他被課了關稅低了一點對不對但好歹他們在造船業等等取得了一定的共識讓他有一口氣可以走嘛那台灣呢我們現在是單純只能像日本這樣只能換到關稅不要殺那麼兇然後我要投資好幾千億美元到你美國本土這個不叫對等談判我認為叫止損因為對產業界來講的話他們是不怕競爭但是要在一個立足點公平上的競爭我們在要求就是這一點 |
| transcript.whisperx[15].start |
327.305 |
| transcript.whisperx[15].end |
335.963 |
| transcript.whisperx[15].text |
至少我們在美國市場上可以跟其他國家所以哪一些產業因為這個未來可能簽成的台美貿易協定他開放了他有新增的利多是以前沒有的 |
| transcript.whisperx[16].start |
339.155 |
| transcript.whisperx[16].end |
360.92 |
| transcript.whisperx[16].text |
你馬上要談一個貿易協議我們會被課關稅 我們會受一點傷那哪一些產業因為這樣利多我們只要可以站在一個利主點的平等我們就不怕競爭我們就可以在美國市場上所以你講的所謂利主點平等你當然是跟我們其他競爭的比如說日本韓國等等相比是大家一起受傷但都不要受傷那麼重所以我講這個叫止損 這個不叫得利 |
| transcript.whisperx[17].start |
361.52 |
| transcript.whisperx[17].end |
367.617 |
| transcript.whisperx[17].text |
好 講到這邊談了半天只能止損那我再問一次院長這個談判是不是單邊主義啊 |
| transcript.whisperx[18].start |
368.939 |
| transcript.whisperx[18].end |
395.533 |
| transcript.whisperx[18].text |
我們有充分表達我方的要求甚至我方未來在美國如果我們投資採購我基於我方的財政跟任何的需求我們有提出我們希望美方要來協助的地方包括一些行政作業的協助等等我覺得這不完全是單邊主義但是美方 我再講一點美方要求平衡他的貿易逆差對我來講就是一個壓力但我們必須在壓力底下尋求一個貿易的平衡 |
| transcript.whisperx[19].start |
396.013 |
| transcript.whisperx[19].end |
424.55 |
| transcript.whisperx[19].text |
好 現在我提醒一下我們的談判團隊啦現在要把握幾個談判的變數這我們一直在講嘛掌握各地的政情跟國際局勢是很重要的這美國最高法院的判決現在看起來風向對於川普政府好像不太有利啊很有可能從他們的大法官的角度這個片面由總統發布課徵關稅的舉動是會受到衝擊的同樣美國國會現在進入了癱瘓的狀態很多共和黨的議員也不見得支持川普的政策甚至對於很多關稅的案子在國會是封殺的請問院長知不知道這個事 |
| transcript.whisperx[20].start |
427.092 |
| transcript.whisperx[20].end |
452.231 |
| transcript.whisperx[20].text |
訊息萬變我們也不敢做任何的揣測不過我們有做事先的各種模擬的分析在什麼樣的情況底下我們應該有進一步的什麼樣的因應以前我們大家都本來很急躁說要談我那時候講說不見得快速談是好的因為局勢一直都在變嘛對不對那現在有一個機遇是這個是美國國內的一個壓力跟一個變數把握這樣的變數其實在談判上我們稍微有好不容易有一點點籌碼我不敢講多啊 |
| transcript.whisperx[21].start |
452.791 |
| transcript.whisperx[21].end |
476.422 |
| transcript.whisperx[21].text |
那這個時候談判的節奏你們會照常進行嗎還是要加速還是要暫緩還是要做什麼樣的打算有把握嗎目前的節奏包括經濟部都很辛苦他一直要跟產業界講因為產業希望我們趕快談定趕快落點落在哪裡但是因為各種局勢啊現在的變化經濟部花了很長的時間跟產業講說我們已經準備好了所有的產業支持的方案所以一旦 |
| transcript.whisperx[22].start |
477.162 |
| transcript.whisperx[22].end |
503.972 |
| transcript.whisperx[22].text |
到了該弱點發生的那一天我們就馬上會上路我提醒一下啦現在比如日本韓國等他簽了都簽了嘛承諾就承諾了即便最後關稅被沒收那個協議都還在對不對但我們現在是有點機會喔因為還沒談成啊那如果有變數的話談判的節奏怎麼捏拿對中華民國產業的利益國家的利益是最好的我提醒院長要做好準備因為啊如果面對這種局勢的瞬息萬變即便是美國國內有它不利的因素我們當然要把握啊 |
| transcript.whisperx[23].start |
505.033 |
| transcript.whisperx[23].end |
529.187 |
| transcript.whisperx[23].text |
對不對國安上面大家是好夥伴是盟友對不對但產業上我們不容任何威脅這也是應該要堅持的如果我們對於這樣的局勢沒有任何因應變化跟策略的調整的話那人民就很難安心了好不好我先提醒關稅的事情到這個地方善用一下機遇現在美國國內的狀況是我們可以利用的籌碼關稅談判的我希望看到一點新的或者是更多的進展因為你舉不出任何利多你只是在 |
| transcript.whisperx[24].start |
530.348 |
| transcript.whisperx[24].end |
547.627 |
| transcript.whisperx[24].text |
止損的情況下談的時候那他當然就是單邊主義我們就是被欺負的對象我們進下一題這看起來世界的格局走向好像也不是只有美國在走單邊主義這個中國大陸最近搞稀土管制院長請問中國大陸的稀土管制是不是一種單邊主義 |
| transcript.whisperx[25].start |
549.141 |
| transcript.whisperx[25].end |
559.412 |
| transcript.whisperx[25].text |
他利用本身這種天然資源上的優勢掌握掌控全世界市場上的需求我講這個是違背全世界合作主義的如果單就這一件來看跟他在 |
| transcript.whisperx[26].start |
565.358 |
| transcript.whisperx[26].end |
580.915 |
| transcript.whisperx[26].text |
整個海洋上面霸權的爭奪來看你剛剛講說西土上違反了全世界合作的原則美國片面克爭全世界關稅有沒有違反全世界合作的原則他說他有透過談判的模式中國大陸西土也談判 他們跟歐盟才剛談完啊他們也談判啊 |
| transcript.whisperx[27].start |
582.497 |
| transcript.whisperx[27].end |
596.006 |
| transcript.whisperx[27].text |
這個談判是0跟100的談判我希望我們面對這個我們今天談的是產業的威脅我就不希望太多的政治的因素在裡面美國的關稅當然是單邊主義同樣中國大陸的稀土經濟當然也是單邊主義 |
| transcript.whisperx[28].start |
597.327 |
| transcript.whisperx[28].end |
624.73 |
| transcript.whisperx[28].text |
對不對 所以這麼大的一個變局院長有沒有實時掌握啊這中美他們現在講G2 structure兩大強權啊你有掌握川習會隨時的談判的進度跟結果應不應該多掌握留心這個的走向當然整個政府團隊包括國安團隊還有我們的談判團隊都密切關心美中跟美台之間的關係謝謝那一 你們整個政府團隊的安排跟想法川習會後的談判結果你覺得誰站得上風 |
| transcript.whisperx[29].start |
626.682 |
| transcript.whisperx[29].end |
649.573 |
| transcript.whisperx[29].text |
兩個人都說他贏啊兩個人都都說自己贏啊兩個人都說自己贏非常好這個誰勝誰負所以你沒有定論對不對你也覺得在變化中嗎我只在乎台灣國家的利益我們有站穩住這個是最重要的好 謝謝這個現在我們就針對稀土這件事情這個稀土這件事情你覺得他們達成協議了沒短時間吧對 |
| transcript.whisperx[30].start |
651.36 |
| transcript.whisperx[30].end |
678.522 |
| transcript.whisperx[30].text |
一年的豁免對不對講得真好來現在狀況出現了我不知道你們有沒有掌握可是你有掌握你不會這樣回答為什麼中國商務部的說法是按照吉隆坡等他們這個部長層級的官員在會談的這樣一個結果然後川習會只是確認因此是10月的擴大稀土管制暫緩執行一年對不對部長我這樣講沒有錯吧這中國商務部的官方說法對不對新的擴大的機制暫緩暫緩一年好院長部長白宮怎麼說的稀土經營的部分 |
| transcript.whisperx[31].start |
680.35 |
| transcript.whisperx[31].end |
708.576 |
| transcript.whisperx[31].text |
他因為這個樣子 他也稍微有一點退讓啊降低了百分之十啊不是 我只講稀土喔他降關稅那個都是大家比較明確的稀土的部分 白宮怎麼說的美國立場應該是他會積極尋求取代稀土的天然資源沒有 我沒有回答到重點 不好意思我直接說明啦白宮的fact sheet公布的說法是包含四月因為四月有一波的七種稀土管制嘛十月的擴大管制白宮的說法是四月跟十月通通會解除喔 |
| transcript.whisperx[32].start |
709.534 |
| transcript.whisperx[32].end |
724.642 |
| transcript.whisperx[32].text |
院長 有沒有掌握這個訊息啊那雙邊認知應該有落差對不對好 雙邊認知落差因為他們現在只是穿席會聊好像還蠻愉快的對不對可是如果雙邊在這個具體的事實認知上出現了嚴重的落差那請問他們的協議會簽還是不會簽這個很難在這裡預測他們兩邊的行為很難預測行為 部長覺得呢 |
| transcript.whisperx[33].start |
733.144 |
| transcript.whisperx[33].end |
747.73 |
| transcript.whisperx[33].text |
因為上次川普1.0的時候中國也承諾了 但是後來也沒有買所以美國人也很生氣所以我們後續還是要看他們兩個國家實際落實的狀況所以你們也沒把握對 但是對台灣來講的話 |
| transcript.whisperx[34].start |
749.632 |
| transcript.whisperx[34].end |
769.11 |
| transcript.whisperx[34].text |
第二階段的這個豁免對我們就是相對比較好因為第二階段有包括主要是磁鐵跟馬達的部分好 非常好這個待會我們有花一些時間來做討論我再多給團隊一點訊號啦這個第一個這個兩邊的認知不同我們剛剛已經說明了嘛這個美國的貝森特選舉就說啊如果稀土禁運持續 |
| transcript.whisperx[35].start |
770.411 |
| transcript.whisperx[35].end |
794.252 |
| transcript.whisperx[35].text |
關稅就會重新回來 這個訊息你們應該要掌握 對不對這個中國商務部最近大幅的擴編人力為什麼 因為他在搞什麼 搞稀土的專案審批嘛你要專案核准才能夠出口 對不對商務部 欸 川習會好像聊得很愉快可是一邊又說關稅會回來一邊講說我商務部要擴增人力這個信號是什麼 真的有這麼樂觀嗎院長 部長 我再問一次你覺得這個協議會不會簽成 |
| transcript.whisperx[36].start |
798.119 |
| transcript.whisperx[36].end |
817.851 |
| transcript.whisperx[36].text |
他總是中國總是要有一些準備吧anyway他可能不管一年的豁免之後可能還要重新談判也不一定我甚至我很擔心啦如果這整份協議都沒有簽成那這一年的豁免會會有豁免嗎是不是就沒有了對不對但是目前看起來還是有這樣的口頭上的第二 |
| transcript.whisperx[37].start |
818.831 |
| transcript.whisperx[37].end |
844.628 |
| transcript.whisperx[37].text |
但兩邊的官方文書說法現在開始出現起義喔沒關係都有可能啦有可能簽的成然後不知道是哪個版本對吧也有可能我認為本席認為機率不低啊因為雙方的認知都不同已經擺在檯面上而雙方的商務系統也都做出了相應的準備所以是很有可能他們兩個聊得很愉快但最後協議簽不下去協議簽不下去代表什麼 |
| transcript.whisperx[38].start |
845.268 |
| transcript.whisperx[38].end |
849.776 |
| transcript.whisperx[38].text |
院長 部長 請問四月包含十月的稀土淨運它會不會繼續存在 |
| transcript.whisperx[39].start |
851.55 |
| transcript.whisperx[39].end |
874.729 |
| transcript.whisperx[39].text |
但是委員因為他們兩個國家對國際間已經散發出有和善有一年的豁免那如果又破局的話我想他們兩個國家也會有壓力很難對全世界交代所以部長比較樂觀 院長呢 你樂觀嗎你覺得有多大的機率簽成協議然後是照哪一個版本來走其實站在中華民國台灣最大的利益是希望全世界穩定 |
| transcript.whisperx[40].start |
876.526 |
| transcript.whisperx[40].end |
902.009 |
| transcript.whisperx[40].text |
軍事 政治 經濟 都穩定那我們才能在當中快速的尋求我們發展的途徑所以任何大國之間的協議如果讓全世界都有一個好的出路 那清楚的目標他就這樣去達成 全世界會比較穩定我期待是這個樣子好 院長期待往好的方向走部長本人的專業判斷比較樂觀本席是不太敢 太樂觀為什麼 因為 |
| transcript.whisperx[41].start |
903.63 |
| transcript.whisperx[41].end |
930.797 |
| transcript.whisperx[41].text |
我剛才講這兩個大國現在都是單邊主義他們都自己想幹嘛就幹嘛不愉快就互相衝突 常常有的事情既然是這樣子的國際環境我希望我們是用料低從寬的心態你當然要想萬一他延長了 對不對四月的也延長了 十月的也延長了我們要提早有因應的措施嘛 對不對部長應該不會反對我這樣講法因為你被動因應或主觀期待很樂觀不見得能夠及時回應產業需求嘛 對不對 |
| transcript.whisperx[42].start |
932.537 |
| transcript.whisperx[42].end |
960.287 |
| transcript.whisperx[42].text |
所以我就要往下問啦稀土的經營措施不見得會解除我們剛討論過了那這段時間我看經濟部的業務報告對不對等等賴總統的一些想法我們有所謂的五大信賴產業包含全球的半導體AI 軍工 安控還有次世代通訊等等是我們未來要主力扶植的產業要加強台灣的競爭力對不對請問這五大產業會不會受到稀土經營的影響 |
| transcript.whisperx[43].start |
962.336 |
| transcript.whisperx[43].end |
975.993 |
| transcript.whisperx[43].text |
會 如果是第二階段那個部分主要是磁鐵跟馬達那個部分會受到比較大的影響部長 第二階段除了具體的講到跟磁鐵跟馬達會有影響之外他還有一個什麼樣的機制會讓我們有更大的產業衝擊 |
| transcript.whisperx[44].start |
977.981 |
| transcript.whisperx[44].end |
993.287 |
| transcript.whisperx[44].text |
他是審批就是說賣到第二國家你要告訴我你最終會賣到哪一個國家用在哪裡標準答案叫長臂管轄對不對也就是說我不會只是管直接從中國大陸進口的稀土或者是相關的材料我連轉口的他手都要伸過去 |
| transcript.whisperx[45].start |
993.787 |
| transcript.whisperx[45].end |
1013.576 |
| transcript.whisperx[45].text |
然後來做壓迫 對不對所以這對台灣的產業風險恐怕是不太小事實上我們根據中華民國商總2025工商會務雙月刊裡面有一筆研究資料叫做大陸管制稀土出口對於美中台產業鏈供應鏈的影響分析2024年以台灣的這個量來講這個95.3%95.3%的稀土磁鐵86.1%的稀土金屬混合化合物79.5%的某類式化合物 |
| transcript.whisperx[46].start |
1024.221 |
| transcript.whisperx[46].end |
1046.032 |
| transcript.whisperx[46].text |
60.7%的稀土金屬是直接來自中國大陸直接或間接來自中國大陸這些東西會影響軍工電動車風電影響醫療高階光學半導體核心這是我們現在最強的地方它雖然不是直接依賴但是它的下游設備跟高階檢測磁性元件等等先進封裝應該都會或多或少受到影響 |
| transcript.whisperx[47].start |
1047.216 |
| transcript.whisperx[47].end |
1073.875 |
| transcript.whisperx[47].text |
我這樣引述有錯嗎但是製程上的影響比較小因為主要是製程上的話會用到所謂的那個4跟藍這一次在12項裡面前後12項裡面沒有包括這兩項我講五大信貸產業就半導體可能相對很小因為這個半導體大家關注啦關注度很高的相對來講資訊比較透明嘛跟磁鐵馬達的部分主要是主要這個部分影響會比較大 |
| transcript.whisperx[48].start |
1074.215 |
| transcript.whisperx[48].end |
1088.844 |
| transcript.whisperx[48].text |
跟磁鐵因為磁鐵馬達其實是小的元件但它影響很多東西來跟你的五大信賴產業有哪一些會具體的受到影響部長要不要說明一下因為大部分的機械的部分會動的部分都或多或少會用到馬達跟磁鐵 |
| transcript.whisperx[49].start |
1090.405 |
| transcript.whisperx[49].end |
1105.857 |
| transcript.whisperx[49].text |
或多或少所以半導體剛講的是封裝嘛對不對所以AI相關的一些電子領域也會用到對不對軍工當然有你剛剛講的無人機安控通訊應該都會用到吧哪一個產業可以完全豁免跟稀土無關的 |
| transcript.whisperx[50].start |
1106.417 |
| transcript.whisperx[50].end |
1134.491 |
| transcript.whisperx[50].text |
是 但是現在的部分我們是因為間接進口就是精煉是在其他國家玩了以後我們是間接從美國或日本或者是美國歐美日本我都明白但它的原料都在哪裡啊美歐日做這半程原料在哪裡目前依賴比較還是依賴中國大陸比較重嘛 對不對好 所以這是一個你們也不會反對的事實就以簡單做一個表格啦跟五大產業鏈這個都有分析的半導體或這幾個 |
| transcript.whisperx[51].start |
1136.612 |
| transcript.whisperx[51].end |
1164.246 |
| transcript.whisperx[51].text |
三 甲 特 狄 流 抗 乙這七大元素四月宣布進口的四月宣布管制的七大元素也就是到現在為止都還要專案審批的七項系統元素跟五大信賴產業的關係軍工特別高所以軍工的影響比較大因為牽涉到無人機等等那跟半導體影響比較小就是我剛才講影響最大的是四根藍沒有在這裡面對所以我今天就針對 |
| transcript.whisperx[52].start |
1165.76 |
| transcript.whisperx[52].end |
1190.728 |
| transcript.whisperx[52].text |
軍工 針對無人機的部分大家來做一下討論我們的政府花了非常非常多的資源有中央的計畫其實各個部會在這個年度的預算書裡面其實很多都提到了無人機產業嘛這應該是一個很重要的一個施政的目標那無人機產業當然應用很廣但很重要的部分當然還是在軍工跟國防嘛 對不對那談到軍工跟國防我們常常政府裡面常常說出來要打造飛鴻供應鏈 |
| transcript.whisperx[53].start |
1192.208 |
| transcript.whisperx[53].end |
1203.41 |
| transcript.whisperx[53].text |
打造這個這樣子的一個供應鏈的情況下請問我們的無人機產業啊我們政府設定的自製率是多少也就是自己國產自己做目標有沒有 有沒有一個相關相對明確的目標 |
| transcript.whisperx[54].start |
1204.514 |
| transcript.whisperx[54].end |
1230.956 |
| transcript.whisperx[54].text |
我們當然是希望說最後的最終結果我們都能做我們都能做並不表示說我們一定全部都一定要在台灣做而是有這個能力因為這個會牽涉到經濟規模的問題如果這一項的零組件只能用在這個area來講的話顯然是不符經濟規模但是如果說特殊狀況要做我們是能夠做出來就好像 |
| transcript.whisperx[55].start |
1232.097 |
| transcript.whisperx[55].end |
1249.687 |
| transcript.whisperx[55].text |
現在很多的無人機我們電子五個說老實話你給他一段時間他都可以發展出來但是問題就是說因為他現在沒有那個需要跟訂單那麼大所以他不見得會投產你在政府在發展整個無人機自製的產業的過程之中你們有沒有設定應該打造飛鴻供應鏈這樣的戰略目標 |
| transcript.whisperx[56].start |
1250.968 |
| transcript.whisperx[56].end |
1271.719 |
| transcript.whisperx[56].text |
現在看起來晶片有個非紅供應鏈在那個地方其他的產業有沒有非紅供應鏈的目標軍工的部分是有的軍工的部分有對不對所以無人機應該也是在應該要變成一條非紅供應鏈以民進黨政府的執政方向這樣應該沒有錯吧對 跟民主國家要共同形成要共同協助好啦 那我就要問核心的問題啦那請問無人機產業我們繞得開紅色稀土嗎 |
| transcript.whisperx[57].start |
1275.949 |
| transcript.whisperx[57].end |
1294.611 |
| transcript.whisperx[57].text |
紅色的稀土吧因為稀土現行的狀況就是都在中國大陸啊所以說為什麼很多的民主國家包括澳洲現在還有美國本身還有很多的國家已經開始針對這些所謂的稀土的部分開始重新開採因為過去來講的話事實上它的成本是不符合這樣的 |
| transcript.whisperx[58].start |
1296.153 |
| transcript.whisperx[58].end |
1311.134 |
| transcript.whisperx[58].text |
因為中國他對環境比較沒有那麼care所以因為他大量要用強酸所以會影響到一些環境所以很多國家不太願意倒不是說他們沒有稀土而是這個精煉的過程開採完要精煉對 要很多的成本 |
| transcript.whisperx[59].start |
1311.394 |
| transcript.whisperx[59].end |
1336.779 |
| transcript.whisperx[59].text |
中國大陸可以卡人家脖子對不對除了稀土產量本身大之外關鍵是精煉的技術或什麼他抓在自己的手上而且他現在在進行管制的措施以無人機產業來講上游的稀土原料跟磁體90%以上要依賴中國大陸中游的馬達 自動氣等等的零組件70%要依賴中國大陸即便是下游的組裝整機因為人家零件的物料等等的優勢也都有50%左右的 |
| transcript.whisperx[60].start |
1337.199 |
| transcript.whisperx[60].end |
1359.859 |
| transcript.whisperx[60].text |
我現在很擔心我們的政府又要講飛鴻供應鏈無人機又是軍工產業裡面還蠻重要的一個亮點政策一環那這彼此之間會不會打架再來就是說如果稀土的長臂管轄跟控制持續的話那我們的無人機產業是推呢還是不推呢院長可以回答嗎我們當然是推啊所謂的飛鴻供應鏈或是民主供應鏈不單是我方 |
| transcript.whisperx[61].start |
1361.072 |
| transcript.whisperx[61].end |
1383.584 |
| transcript.whisperx[61].text |
要去發展是全世界民主理念相近國家都認為在此時此刻如果有這樣一個民主的供應鏈對資安安全上對國防安全上是必要的而且是不可取代的所以不只是我方所以我們應該結合這些理念相近國家共同來尋求一個產業的供應鏈這才是全世界 |
| transcript.whisperx[62].start |
1384.304 |
| transcript.whisperx[62].end |
1405.96 |
| transcript.whisperx[62].text |
大家合作之道目前大家遇到的共同困境就是大家目前一時半刻都繞不開系統剛剛部長有講現在各國在合作澳洲馬來西亞等等有可能有新的投資但你這個新的投資我們先不管中國大陸會不會在精煉的地方再做長臂管轄這整個過程走下來籌資落地設廠還要再商用等等怎麼樣也要個三五年吧 |
| transcript.whisperx[63].start |
1406.52 |
| transcript.whisperx[63].end |
1426.845 |
| transcript.whisperx[63].text |
對不對那這個時候跟我們國家要推動的會不會被卡住啊我只在擔心這個問題啊稀土禁運如果持續存在不要影響我們的產業發展我覺得這是我們政府要特別留心提防的很多人不管是半導體也好其他的產業也好大家都在提醒啊我們現在有沒有針對我們的稀土的進口稀土相關產品的進口進行全面的盤點而且進行庫存的統計 |
| transcript.whisperx[64].start |
1428.385 |
| transcript.whisperx[64].end |
1447.419 |
| transcript.whisperx[64].text |
因為現在這個是一個不確定因素嘛你不確定他的禁運會抓的多嚴嘛我們現在有多少的這個稀土進口走了專案審批被打槍的沒有辦法順利通過的有多少是透過第三地目前還可以順利通過的經濟部這邊 行政院這裡 國安團隊這裡有沒有掌握啊 |
| transcript.whisperx[65].start |
1448.423 |
| transcript.whisperx[65].end |
1469.337 |
| transcript.whisperx[65].text |
八號委員現在絕大部分是進口沒有錯或是稀土的間接產品絕大部分是進口所以我們現在有一些想法就是說我們自己要有一些庫存上的準備滿足我們自己自足但是沒有辦法完全我們希望在至少在2030年之前可以有滿足我們三分之一三分之二還是要跟那個三分之一具體來講是幾噸 |
| transcript.whisperx[66].start |
1470.714 |
| transcript.whisperx[66].end |
1495.709 |
| transcript.whisperx[66].text |
因為那個出口的量我們查到的資料是大概六千億台幣嘛五百噸那我後來有看到另外一份資料講說我們每一年的剛性需求大概是一千五百噸的稀土左右嘛那你希望達到三分之一因為我目前也沒有看到我們有跟其他國家比如說合作開採或什麼樣的一個狀況嘛對不對我目前看到政府推出的策略只有比如說回收再利用欸 此時此刻我們是只有實驗室對不對他能夠一年可以弄出多少噸稀土啊 透過回收 |
| transcript.whisperx[67].start |
1496.41 |
| transcript.whisperx[67].end |
1511.432 |
| transcript.whisperx[67].text |
現在公園已經他有公斤級的這個精煉的相關技術公斤級所以還有一段路要走SKUP以後再把這個計算給這個廠商現在已經有一些廠商有興趣了那這些廠商事實上他們 |
| transcript.whisperx[68].start |
1512.313 |
| transcript.whisperx[68].end |
1540.892 |
| transcript.whisperx[68].text |
有已經在跟澳洲或是其他國家有在談了啦就是說這個原料可以從那邊進來我提醒政府啦既然這五大信賴產業或多或少都會要使用稀土那麼稀土的淨運跟長臂管轄跟專案審批它或多或少就會影響產業發展的進度請針對相關的產業進行盤點它現在已經是重要戰略物資啦你政府當然要有所掌握要庫存統計的掌握你不見得要公開因為它有商業機密這個我們都尊重的 |
| transcript.whisperx[69].start |
1542.613 |
| transcript.whisperx[69].end |
1565.823 |
| transcript.whisperx[69].text |
布裡面現在到底有沒有統計啊 有沒有盤點的資料我們一直在準備啊 所以就是剛剛向委員報告的嘛為什麼我們會開始做自己的那我就 你有準備對不對 在最嚴苛的情況下比如說談判破局 十月的稀土精靈保留而且開始進行長臂管轄 我們可以撐多少天他開始斷供的時候 一案都沒有過 我們可以撐多久 |
| transcript.whisperx[70].start |
1566.465 |
| transcript.whisperx[70].end |
1591.605 |
| transcript.whisperx[70].text |
沒有 現在來講的話全世界還是有間接稀土在運轉當中所以我剛剛問他長臂管轄開始使用包含間接他都把他掐起來的時候沒有 他有些已經出口的已經有DIL的跟人家談好合約的他不可能在長臂管轄所以你現在有一些庫存有一些DIL那大概可以撐多久半年 一年 兩年 三年有沒有一個簡單的時間因為我們的部分我們是間接進口所以很被動 |
| transcript.whisperx[71].start |
1593.366 |
| transcript.whisperx[71].end |
1617.105 |
| transcript.whisperx[71].text |
目前第一道難關倒不是台灣 是我們間接進口的那些國家請你做好最壞的打算 我只能這樣說我們不逼你在這個地方講出具體的數字但是請你做好準備 這是本席 嚴肅的提醒關稅稀土很殘忍這個稀土禁運 我剛剛講了 中國大陸當然是單邊主義他當然就是搞卡脖子 對不對但我告訴你 我之所以擔心的事情 我不會只擔心稀土 |
| transcript.whisperx[72].start |
1617.825 |
| transcript.whisperx[72].end |
1645.459 |
| transcript.whisperx[72].text |
其他的產業也挫雷彈這個是台青院部長以前待過台青院做的景氣燈號報告這當然以總體來講股市兩萬八對不對半導體產業長紅經濟成長率創新高拍拍手但是這個燈號展現了什麼樣的那個你有沒有看過整份的報導基本上除了電子零組件跟半導體科技產業是紅燈熱絡嘛產值非常的高之外其他的產業基本上一片藍的狀況部長有掌握這樣的訊息嗎 |
| transcript.whisperx[73].start |
1646.528 |
| transcript.whisperx[73].end |
1669.254 |
| transcript.whisperx[73].text |
我知道但是因為這個怎麼編的我也知道他比較不敏感我建議您去看看他的營業氣候測驗點國發會你有一個網站我也知道但他沒有這麼詳細的分享台晶園的報告是有詳細各個系的產業的分享這我想也不用我在這邊多言基本上除了半導體跟比較進步科技的產業之外其他的傳統產業是很辛苦的 |
| transcript.whisperx[74].start |
1669.594 |
| transcript.whisperx[74].end |
1680.621 |
| transcript.whisperx[74].text |
我要問你的問題是這幾個產業化材 石油 煤製品 汽車零件毛房品 金屬手工具一般通用機械跟自行車這些產業的共通點是什麼你知道嗎除了他們都是藍燈之外 |
| transcript.whisperx[75].start |
1682.213 |
| transcript.whisperx[75].end |
1700.078 |
| transcript.whisperx[75].text |
現在我看到實際上的數據比如說九月份很多的產業的出口已經恢復到正的成長顯然就是說你回答我的問題就好除了燈號之外有沒有什麼共同點當然就是從五月份開始因為四月份是對等關稅我問你這幾個產業的共同點是什麼 |
| transcript.whisperx[76].start |
1704.403 |
| transcript.whisperx[76].end |
1731.341 |
| transcript.whisperx[76].text |
你一時半刻也看不出來 因為時間有限 我直接公布答案他們都是ECFA早收清單的受益者他們出口賣到中國大陸享有相對優惠的關稅稅率既然美國會用單邊主義殺關稅老共會用單邊主義搞稀土會不會哪一天大家不愉快的時候用單邊主義取消我們的早收清單我們的政府有沒有針對這樣的產業鏈可能的進一步的衝擊傳產的毀滅性打擊 預先做兵棋推演 |
| transcript.whisperx[77].start |
1732.583 |
| transcript.whisperx[77].end |
1748.737 |
| transcript.whisperx[77].text |
院長有嗎所以我們一直在說除了幫助產業能夠在內部研發轉型之外重要的是多元市場的開發幫助他多元市場開發就不會落在一個國家的找收清單把你卡死我們現在協助他 |
| transcript.whisperx[78].start |
1749.818 |
| transcript.whisperx[78].end |
1770.608 |
| transcript.whisperx[78].text |
更多的市場去做更多的開發這有成績單啊你看開發國外市場結果還是藍藍藍藍藍對不對好像效果不好我希望要加油如果你要預做最壞的準備兩邊都會搞單邊主義那表示我們的外貿環境已經不像以前這麼好了我們就希望看到政府有很多積極的作為他可能是預防可能是轉移風險你要做超前部署 |
| transcript.whisperx[79].start |
1772.369 |
| transcript.whisperx[79].end |
1787.043 |
| transcript.whisperx[79].text |
所以謝謝立法院給我們的特別預算至少經濟部來講有460億來因應這樣的挑戰就是多元開發市場還有我們自己本身的轉型升級的協助 |
| transcript.whisperx[80].start |
1787.783 |
| transcript.whisperx[80].end |
1801.822 |
| transcript.whisperx[80].text |
我要提醒最後的時間產業現在面對中美單邊主義的雙重威脅已經是板上釘釘的事實我們如果還在政治掛帥忽略產業的真實需求我想是蒼白無力的人民期待的是方法跟出路 |
| transcript.whisperx[81].start |
1803.404 |
| transcript.whisperx[81].end |
1826.975 |
| transcript.whisperx[81].text |
我要提醒我們的行政院要為產業界創造友善的環境用任何方法創造友善的環境這是我們政府不可迴避的責任我希望我們的行政團隊針對關稅跟稀土的雙重衝擊做好準備 謝謝我應該提醒跟我們現在的關鍵有很大部分是不謀而合所以我們如果共同努力讓產業界更有信心好 謝謝牛許廷委員質詢謝謝卓院長 經濟部長備詢 謝謝 |
| transcript.whisperx[82].start |
1831.742 |
| transcript.whisperx[82].end |
1833.596 |
| transcript.whisperx[82].text |
謝謝王振興委員 張雅玲委員陪同 |