| IVOD_ID |
163433 |
| IVOD_URL |
https://ivod.ly.gov.tw/Play/Clip/1M/163433 |
| 日期 |
2025-08-07 |
| 會議資料.會議代碼 |
委員會-11-3-19-19 |
| 會議資料.會議代碼:str |
第11屆第3會期經濟委員會第19次全體委員會議 |
| 會議資料.屆 |
11 |
| 會議資料.會期 |
3 |
| 會議資料.會次 |
19 |
| 會議資料.種類 |
委員會 |
| 會議資料.委員會代碼[0] |
19 |
| 會議資料.委員會代碼:str[0] |
經濟委員會 |
| 會議資料.標題 |
第11屆第3會期經濟委員會第19次全體委員會議 |
| 影片種類 |
Clip |
| 開始時間 |
2025-08-07T09:43:22+08:00 |
| 結束時間 |
2025-08-07T09:53:05+08:00 |
| 影片長度 |
00:09:43 |
| 支援功能[0] |
ai-transcript |
| video_url |
https://ivod-lyvod.cdn.hinet.net/vod_1/_definst_/mp4:1MClips/ce960b47cc6398b956ce8216afb379c970dc6911ab88c3aa976a05b665ea94a3dd6b1f49ba06ce335ea18f28b6918d91.mp4/playlist.m3u8 |
| 委員名稱 |
賴瑞隆 |
| 委員發言時間 |
09:43:22 - 09:53:05 |
| 會議時間 |
2025-08-07T09:00:00+08:00 |
| 會議名稱 |
立法院第11屆第3會期經濟委員會第19次全體委員會議（事由：邀請國家發展委員會主任委員就「美國對等關稅底定後，我國經濟未來之景氣情況及產業全球佈局新規劃」進行報告，並備質詢。） |
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| transcript.whisperx[0].start |
5.147 |
| transcript.whisperx[0].end |
5.669 |
| transcript.whisperx[0].text |
好 謝謝主席 請那個劉書偉劉書偉 |
| transcript.whisperx[1].start |
15.489 |
| transcript.whisperx[1].end |
35.738 |
| transcript.whisperx[1].text |
對 我先請教一個 今天中午正式就會生效 台美的部分先雖然我們現在是暫時性的 中午生效20%的部分先生效 其實其他國家也都是這樣因為我們現在談的叫做暫時性的關稅 表示接下來還會繼續談 |
| transcript.whisperx[2].start |
37.799 |
| transcript.whisperx[2].end |
45.184 |
| transcript.whisperx[2].text |
什麼時候會有最後筆定的一個時間這個是談判代表跟這個院在談但是我有被徵詢一些議題所以我很確定他還在進行中希望還在談判當中當然我們希望後面還會再講 |
| transcript.whisperx[3].start |
57.611 |
| transcript.whisperx[3].end |
73.338 |
| transcript.whisperx[3].text |
今天因為中午就開始生效了所以相關的因應措施跟準備其實也都一定要啟動了啦因為這個一旦生效馬上就直接會有相關的影響就會產生那我先確定一下因為早上最早的消息知道就是 |
| transcript.whisperx[4].start |
74.799 |
| transcript.whisperx[4].end |
93.977 |
| transcript.whisperx[4].text |
半導體的部分當然關稅是百分之百但是他也有提到如果你有去投資的計畫或即將投資的話那就零啦就是零那台積電這樣看來是零嘛因為台積電已經在美國做投資對沒錯所以台積電目前看起來其實是會是零的部分嘛這對台灣來說當然是一個好的消息對因為他的比重比較大 |
| transcript.whisperx[5].start |
95.057 |
| transcript.whisperx[5].end |
112.007 |
| transcript.whisperx[5].text |
那這個台積電因為我們看了有幾個廠都在進行 未來也在投資但是還有其他的部分因為台灣跟美國我們畢竟還是前十大的貿易國那從去年來看的話台美之間的貿易順差 |
| transcript.whisperx[6].start |
114.608 |
| transcript.whisperx[6].end |
138.227 |
| transcript.whisperx[6].text |
還是前六大 第六大所以其實這個問題顯然我們必須跟美國也做一個好的處理我想川普也會要求跟台灣進行處理那我們看我們周邊的其實像南韓 像日本他們大概都已經初步談定了那裡面大概形式上一個是投資像南韓是投資美國3500億美金那像日本是投資5500億美金 |
| transcript.whisperx[7].start |
143.231 |
| transcript.whisperx[7].end |
157.782 |
| transcript.whisperx[7].text |
那台灣是不是也會朝這個方向在進行如果就川普這兩天的訊息出來的話這個我不清楚但是就我來看我們的GDP的種子是低於南韓的那 |
| transcript.whisperx[8].start |
162.057 |
| transcript.whisperx[8].end |
189.252 |
| transcript.whisperx[8].text |
這個如果用GDP比重來看投資的話理論上台灣的投資應該還是不可能比高過這些國家啦對如果照這樣來看以日本台灣南韓來看的話其實我們已經也盡了相當大的一個努力了在整個平衡整個貿易的逆差的部分做了相當大的一個努力那所以接下來如果台灣有更多的一些投資範圍其實看來很多不管是從包括 |
| transcript.whisperx[9].start |
190.467 |
| transcript.whisperx[9].end |
202.565 |
| transcript.whisperx[9].text |
汽車甚至半導體慢慢抵定了之後包括汽車甚至於投資不管是天然氣或投資其他的部分的話那有機會經過這樣的方式的話讓台灣的關稅有機會再降低嗎主委怎麼看 |
| transcript.whisperx[10].start |
203.615 |
| transcript.whisperx[10].end |
225.577 |
| transcript.whisperx[10].text |
我是認為很有機會的原因是第一個我們台灣代表處其實大家準備的非常充分那第二個事情是這些團隊也蠻優秀的所以我認為應該會有很好的結果那如果按照日美跟韓美之間的看法的話他們是會先降到一個中間暫時性關稅再往下 |
| transcript.whisperx[11].start |
227.239 |
| transcript.whisperx[11].end |
249.272 |
| transcript.whisperx[11].text |
那我們看起來我們的路徑也在接近也正在一個中間路徑所以台灣的趨勢也是照這樣從32到20再20有可能再往下降也許降到類似15日韓越南都是這樣的路徑對那如果是15的話至少在日本跟南韓之間的話但大家的就站這個比較一樣的一個基礎點上面去競爭對台灣的衝擊相對上就會比較小 |
| transcript.whisperx[12].start |
252.914 |
| transcript.whisperx[12].end |
259.48 |
| transcript.whisperx[12].text |
所以我們大概是朝這個目標在努力那諸位看起來是樂觀的朝樂觀的方向在看我們是這樣我們準備的時候風險角度不能樂觀我們就有版本但是談判結果我們是朝樂觀方向看 |
| transcript.whisperx[13].start |
268.248 |
| transcript.whisperx[13].end |
294.805 |
| transcript.whisperx[13].text |
好 也一定要朝這個方向去做努力啦這也必然是那另外當然有些擔憂的是息產地的問題啦其實像包括像印尼、越南等等其實都有息產地這個台灣也必須要做萬全的一些準備啦因為一旦被認定為你是在息產地的話那這個大概就會被又被拉高起來這個部分我想政府應該都做了萬全的準備這個經濟部已經做了做了一些措施嘛然後進行比較大的管控 |
| transcript.whisperx[14].start |
296.667 |
| transcript.whisperx[14].end |
320.802 |
| transcript.whisperx[14].text |
所以我了解經濟部是好我也希望國發會持續的關注這樣啦因為畢竟它影響到國家整體的未來的競爭力那國發會站在整個更更高的一個高度上面其實要去不斷去控管跟注意這樣的一個事項那其實台美這六年來其實增加了十倍啦其實確實增長的速度相當快那所以這個也大概也是我們要去面臨的問題啦一年將近接近700億 |
| transcript.whisperx[15].start |
323.865 |
| transcript.whisperx[15].end |
346.423 |
| transcript.whisperx[15].text |
700億這樣的一個這個貿易的順差我們順差他們是逆差所以這個也是台灣一定要去面對的問題所以我想這個也希望後續的談判結果能夠跟一方面是對台灣的產業的衝擊降到最低那一方面也希望台美的關係更加的穩固我想這是同樣努力的一個目標 |
| transcript.whisperx[16].start |
347.698 |
| transcript.whisperx[16].end |
369.272 |
| transcript.whisperx[16].text |
主委應該是朝這樣的看法吧是的我們向努力那另外是我想問一下那接下來其實我們談判即將抵定了那我們現在處理的大概是用930億的方式來做那剛剛其實主委提到這個原先最早的規劃就用930億那如果以現在這樣狀況下 |
| transcript.whisperx[17].start |
370.753 |
| transcript.whisperx[17].end |
392.472 |
| transcript.whisperx[17].text |
會再增加嗎?就是對於整個產業的支持跟照顧跟協助部分會再做一些增加嗎?以現在來看,因為當時是以現在來看應該這個是會滾動式調整那現在來看在我們經濟能力上這個應該是可以先往前走應該是推動應該是夠了但是還要看後面的變動 |
| transcript.whisperx[18].start |
394.134 |
| transcript.whisperx[18].end |
408.887 |
| transcript.whisperx[18].text |
現在暫定用930億來推啦但是後面隨時在做滾動式檢討但如果隨時有需要的時候我們隨時可以再來做追加的部分尤其我們有很大的金額是在支持他出貨的成本 |
| transcript.whisperx[19].start |
410.05 |
| transcript.whisperx[19].end |
434.964 |
| transcript.whisperx[19].text |
那因為他需要被支持 那那個出貨量越大 我們的支持金額就會往上拉嘛這個隨著談判的結果出來之後 越來越清楚的出來之後那當然就會有更明確的一些那個 就是現在這個這樣子做 這樣子來列但是將來談判結果更明確的出來之後 我們當然就有更明確的一些做法那當然還不足 還不夠的部分 |
| transcript.whisperx[20].start |
435.604 |
| transcript.whisperx[20].end |
458.497 |
| transcript.whisperx[20].text |
政府也持續我們會再來調整我想政府挺企業這件事情是沒有問題的這個是絕對沒有問題而且政府挺農漁民這件事情也是沒有問題這是絕對的所以我想這樣的態度至少讓國人放心就是說我們努力的談到最好的結果但是談完之後如果任何受到影響的產業那政府也絕對會挺相關的產業跟農漁民到底這裡面除了這個產業農業經濟的產業以外還有就是這個穩定就業的部分 |
| transcript.whisperx[21].start |
465.361 |
| transcript.whisperx[21].end |
481.469 |
| transcript.whisperx[21].text |
對 這個都要持續來進行這也是政府的主要目的那我再問那裡面我看到報告裡面就是政府還是會維持在今年GDP成長3%這樣的一個目標嘛是不是對 現在是很有信心啦很有信心啦應該沒有太大問題因為上半年看起來狀況是相當的不錯啦 |
| transcript.whisperx[22].start |
482.99 |
| transcript.whisperx[22].end |
506.024 |
| transcript.whisperx[22].text |
對 然後下半年主要有兩個支柱會產生一個是手機的拉貨槽第二個是那個AI那個這個GP300的新Model的儲貨這兩塊都會帶動那我們希望國發會跟各部會密切的注意那我們來看一下燈號的部分其實是到5月、6月其實已經進入到了綠燈所以在景氣上面 主委擔憂嗎 這樣的狀況 |
| transcript.whisperx[23].start |
507.705 |
| transcript.whisperx[23].end |
534.123 |
| transcript.whisperx[23].text |
現在景氣狀況是進入我們稱為穩定期綠燈是穩定期那我們是審慎的去規劃後面所以我們才會有擴大內需希望來推動擴大內需來把下半年如果有什麼比較大的變化的話可以所以下半年的景氣狀況主委怎麼看待下半年景氣其實是一個值得關注就是我們還是很謹慎去觀察 |
| transcript.whisperx[24].start |
535.58 |
| transcript.whisperx[24].end |
556.401 |
| transcript.whisperx[24].text |
那趨勢上呢就國發會的你們的評估跟判斷呢因為你們的評估判斷會影響到怎麼樣去投入這些相關的資源趨勢上應該會跟去年接近啦就是說會比上半年差但跟去年接近就是說等於是成長力道相較於去年大概會在1.1%或是1.多的一個狀況 |
| transcript.whisperx[25].start |
559.923 |
| transcript.whisperx[25].end |
580.894 |
| transcript.whisperx[25].text |
好 我們希望整個密切注意這樣一個狀況好不好也請國防會持續的在這裡所以會相較下半年 去年下半年有微幅成長就沒有那麼大幅度的我們現在這個是已經是大概應該是全世界最好的上半年對 但是下半年部分還是要請持續的關注這樣一個狀況好 謝謝主委 辛苦了好 謝謝 |