| IVOD_ID |
149888 |
| IVOD_URL |
https://ivod.ly.gov.tw/Play/Clip/1M/149888 |
| 日期 |
2024-03-14 |
| 會議資料.會議代碼 |
委員會-11-1-20-3 |
| 會議資料.會議代碼:str |
第11屆第1會期財政委員會第3次全體委員會議 |
| 會議資料.屆 |
11 |
| 會議資料.會期 |
1 |
| 會議資料.會次 |
3 |
| 會議資料.種類 |
委員會 |
| 會議資料.委員會代碼[0] |
20 |
| 會議資料.委員會代碼:str[0] |
財政委員會 |
| 會議資料.標題 |
第11屆第1會期財政委員會第3次全體委員會議 |
| 影片種類 |
Clip |
| 開始時間 |
2024-03-14T11:21:42+08:00 |
| 結束時間 |
2024-03-14T11:32:36+08:00 |
| 影片長度 |
00:10:54 |
| 支援功能[0] |
ai-transcript |
| 支援功能[1] |
gazette |
| video_url |
https://ivod-lyvod.cdn.hinet.net/vod_1/_definst_/mp4:1MClips/38af2da376d231353dda50fc3a72ab299acded3ffe6c80faf8ba9b0039caa7a6c1b34ac842e2f80c5ea18f28b6918d91.mp4/playlist.m3u8 |
| 委員名稱 |
李坤城 |
| 委員發言時間 |
11:21:42 - 11:32:36 |
| 會議時間 |
2024-03-14T09:00:00+08:00 |
| 會議名稱 |
立法院第11屆第1會期財政委員會第3次全體委員會議（事由：邀請中央銀行楊總裁金龍率所屬單位主管暨財金資訊股份有限公司董事長列席業務報告，並備質詢。
【3月13日及14日二天一次會】） |
| gazette.lineno |
777 |
| gazette.blocks[0][0] |
李委員坤城：（11時21分）謝謝主席。請楊總裁。 |
| gazette.blocks[1][0] |
主席：請楊總裁。 |
| gazette.blocks[2][0] |
李委員坤城：總裁好。 |
| gazette.blocks[3][0] |
楊總裁金龍：李委員早。 |
| gazette.blocks[4][0] |
李委員坤城：總裁早上也辛苦了，我先請教一下，我看到你早上的質詢，大家問的問題也都很多元，我們都知道總裁講話通常具有一槌定音的效果啦！ |
| gazette.blocks[5][0] |
楊總裁金龍：謝謝委員。 |
| gazette.blocks[6][0] |
李委員坤城：早上我看到有其他委員在關心最近很夯的ETF，總裁用了一個非常生動的比喻，這就會像羊群一樣跳下去，你說怎麼上來就會怎麼樣下去，我相信總裁這一番談話可能會對ETF具有降溫的效果啦！ |
| gazette.blocks[7][0] |
楊總裁金龍：我是希望啦！我是希望這樣啦！不過我跟委員報告，金管會也瞭解、也關注到這個議題，所以他們也是希望採一些降溫的措施。 |
| gazette.blocks[8][0] |
李委員坤城：所以總裁也認為說最近這幾檔很夯的ETF太熱了，比如會對臺灣經濟的發展不好、還是對哪裡不好？所以你希望它具有降溫的效果？ |
| gazette.blocks[9][0] |
楊總裁金龍：最主要的應該是說投資人一窩蜂，我看媒體也是在表達、在描述說因為很多人對ETF也都不懂，但是因為看到大家都一直去買，他就打電話，打到金融機構接到手軟，所以很顯然這是一窩蜂的，很多都是一窩蜂…… |
| gazette.blocks[10][0] |
李委員坤城：就像前面一頭羊跳下去了，後面的不知道就跟著跳下去的意思嗎？ |
| gazette.blocks[11][0] |
楊總裁金龍：他也不曉得ETF是什麼，只是現在一直在漲漲漲，人的心理就是追漲，大家都有一個現象就是追漲，不懂的，他也一直往前衝…… |
| gazette.blocks[12][0] |
李委員坤城：應該不是說ETF不好，因為它也是一種投資的方式。 |
| gazette.blocks[13][0] |
楊總裁金龍：對、對、對。 |
| gazette.blocks[14][0] |
李委員坤城：它也是一種投資的方式，就跟基金跟股票是一樣的。 |
| gazette.blocks[15][0] |
楊總裁金龍：沒有錯。 |
| gazette.blocks[16][0] |
李委員坤城：只是今天我們總裁給了一個警語，現在買ETF太熱，希望投資人在投資之前要先理性選擇一下，應該是這個意思吧？ |
| gazette.blocks[17][0] |
楊總裁金龍：是，沒有錯。也就是說，對於投資人，我想最基本的，我也不是非常非常高竿的投資人，不是！但有一個基本的原則，就是上車跟下車的時點，你必須要瞭解，不是一窩蜂的，人家上車，你也跟著上車，下車的時候，你也跟著下車，這個就…… |
| gazette.blocks[18][0] |
李委員坤城：OK！所以我說總裁的談話具有一槌定音的效果。 |
| gazette.blocks[19][0] |
楊總裁金龍：謝謝你。 |
| gazette.blocks[20][0] |
李委員坤城：你講出來之後，這幾天買ETF的人大概就會稍微降溫一點了。 |
| gazette.blocks[21][0] |
楊總裁金龍：謝謝、謝謝。 |
| gazette.blocks[22][0] |
李委員坤城：總裁是看好今年臺灣的經濟成長？ |
| gazette.blocks[23][0] |
楊總裁金龍：是，基本上會比去年好。 |
| gazette.blocks[24][0] |
李委員坤城：比去年好？ |
| gazette.blocks[25][0] |
楊總裁金龍：是，比去年好。 |
| gazette.blocks[26][0] |
李委員坤城：信心從哪裡來的？ |
| gazette.blocks[27][0] |
楊總裁金龍：最主要就是我們的出口有復甦，你看從10、11、12、1、2月份都是成長的，這個很顯然，當然我們的出口成長很大一部分也是跟AI有關係，但是其他慢慢的在5、6月份以後，普遍也應該會隨著上升啦！也就是說我們的出口好，我們的投資就會好，出口好、投資好。另外，我們消費的部分，去年我們的經濟成長說實在的主要都是靠消費，剛好就是COVID-19解封以後，餐飲業、旅遊業這些都非常好，今年應該也是維持它的動力。 |
| gazette.blocks[28][0] |
李委員坤城：所以總裁認為經濟成長好，因為我們出口會增加。 |
| gazette.blocks[29][0] |
楊總裁金龍：對、對、對。 |
| gazette.blocks[30][0] |
李委員坤城：內需也會增加？ |
| gazette.blocks[31][0] |
楊總裁金龍：內需應該也會增加，因為它的動力還是有的。 |
| gazette.blocks[32][0] |
李委員坤城：大家也關心通膨。 |
| gazette.blocks[33][0] |
楊總裁金龍：對，沒有錯。 |
| gazette.blocks[34][0] |
李委員坤城：因為我昨天有問主計長，主計長說如果把電價成長的部分計算進去的話大概是2%，主計長認為2%算溫和，他講了好幾次溫和，那總裁呢？總裁的看法怎麼樣？ |
| gazette.blocks[35][0] |
楊總裁金龍：主計長講的也沒有錯啦！不過我們是稍微比較保守一點，因為我們在12月時的預測就是1.89%，剛看到我們的電價要上漲的方案，如果把它計算進去，還有考慮到其他的，比如這個也要漲、那個也要漲，還有考慮到通膨的預期心理，也許我們會超過2%，但下個禮拜四我們的理監事會…… |
| gazette.blocks[36][0] |
李委員坤城：會來討論？ |
| gazette.blocks[37][0] |
楊總裁金龍：對，會很謹慎地來討論這個議題。 |
| gazette.blocks[38][0] |
李委員坤城：相信總裁也會相當關心美國的聯準會…… |
| gazette.blocks[39][0] |
楊總裁金龍：是，沒有錯。 |
| gazette.blocks[40][0] |
李委員坤城：他們會不會降息？ |
| gazette.blocks[41][0] |
楊總裁金龍：是、是、是，對，也就是說市場目前都一直覺得美國是在6月以後會降息。 |
| gazette.blocks[42][0] |
李委員坤城：會降息，你認為他們會降息的原因在哪裡？他們通膨有控制住了嗎？他們的經濟成長有達到預期了嗎？ |
| gazette.blocks[43][0] |
楊總裁金龍：不過這是市場的預期啦！ |
| gazette.blocks[44][0] |
李委員坤城：總裁的看法呢？我比較相信總裁的看法。 |
| gazette.blocks[45][0] |
楊總裁金龍：Fed還是很謹慎，因為中央銀行畢竟對中央銀行的想法會比較接近，中央銀行在瞭解中央銀行的想法會比較接近一點，我們認為Fed還是非常謹慎的…… |
| gazette.blocks[46][0] |
李委員坤城：跟你一樣的謹慎。 |
| gazette.blocks[47][0] |
楊總裁金龍：一樣的謹慎。 |
| gazette.blocks[48][0] |
李委員坤城：所以6月之後會降息嗎？ |
| gazette.blocks[49][0] |
楊總裁金龍：因為美國它是說如果，它還是有條件的，如果說它預期通膨有下降到2%左右，然後經濟也是有韌性的，而且通膨有下來，因為市場都認為有75%會軟著陸，這樣的話，它就認為這就符合它的標準，但是什麼時候會符合這個標準？Fed也不敢說。 |
| gazette.blocks[50][0] |
李委員坤城：反正就是大家抓準6月之前不會改變，6月之後有可能？ |
| gazette.blocks[51][0] |
楊總裁金龍：對、對、對。 |
| gazette.blocks[52][0] |
李委員坤城：好。臺灣呢？因為我們的利率通常會跟著美國走吧？ |
| gazette.blocks[53][0] |
楊總裁金龍：不一定啦！ |
| gazette.blocks[54][0] |
李委員坤城：不一定？ |
| gazette.blocks[55][0] |
楊總裁金龍：不一定。 |
| gazette.blocks[56][0] |
李委員坤城：因為我今天早上有看到其他委員也有問啦！就是說美國在6月之後有可能降息，但是臺灣不一定，有可能會升息嗎？ |
| gazette.blocks[57][0] |
楊總裁金龍：基本上我們跟美國不大一樣的地方就是說美國的通膨很高，然後它就提高利率，急速的提高利率。我們的通膨不會像它那麼高，所以我們提高的利率都是很溫和漸進的，溫和漸進地上去，因為它是從上面調降下來的，所以它就是有調降的空間，中央銀行要看我們通膨的情況。 |
| gazette.blocks[58][0] |
李委員坤城：我的意思是通膨2%大概是現在主流的看法，主計長以及國發會主委都認為是2%，如果在2%左右的情況之下，在這個條件的情況之下，總裁方便講嗎？ |
| gazette.blocks[59][0] |
楊總裁金龍：第一個，我會說我們會很謹慎，這是第一個。第二個，電價的調升除了會對CPI產生影響以外，我們還要注意的是通膨預期心理，如果大家都講在通膨、通膨，它就會自我實現喔！這個我們要非常注意。 |
| gazette.blocks[60][0] |
李委員坤城：對啦，所以大家不要有這個預期心理，認為會產生通膨，結果這個預期心理就真的發生了，當然這也是有可能，只是因為總裁之前有提到，對於臺灣的經濟成長是看好的，如果利率不降反升的話不曉得會不會對經濟成長造成影響？ |
| gazette.blocks[61][0] |
楊總裁金龍：基本上，我們臺灣的經濟受到外部的（external）影響比較大，我們本身的影響比較少，都是外部影響，誠如我剛剛所說的，我們的出口好，我們的投資就會好，我們的消費水準也會維持在一定水準，政府的支出也有成長，在這種情況之下，經濟是會往上推的。 |
| gazette.blocks[62][0] |
李委員坤城：因為時間不多，我還有一題想要問，央行有打算要發行數位貨幣。 |
| gazette.blocks[63][0] |
楊總裁金龍：我們還在研擬當中。 |
| gazette.blocks[64][0] |
李委員坤城：中國人民銀行是不是也有發行？ |
| gazette.blocks[65][0] |
楊總裁金龍：他們現在講的是試點，試點也不是正式發行。 |
| gazette.blocks[66][0] |
李委員坤城：他們是試點。 |
| gazette.blocks[67][0] |
楊總裁金龍：他們只是試點而已，沒有正式發行。 |
| gazette.blocks[68][0] |
李委員坤城：我認為數位貨幣當然有其流通性及方便性，但是也有高度的管制性在，所以我認為總裁在發行數位貨幣的時候，可能也要注意到這一點。 |
| gazette.blocks[69][0] |
楊總裁金龍：好，我們會，委員說的沒有錯，我們會很小心。 |
| gazette.blocks[70][0] |
李委員坤城：好，謝謝總裁、謝謝主席。 |
| gazette.blocks[71][0] |
楊總裁金龍：謝謝。 |
| gazette.blocks[72][0] |
主席：請陳委員玉珍質詢。 |
| gazette.agenda.page_end |
192 |
| gazette.agenda.meet_id |
委員會-11-1-20-3 |
| gazette.agenda.speakers[0] |
羅明才 |
| gazette.agenda.speakers[1] |
林德福 |
| gazette.agenda.speakers[2] |
吳秉叡 |
| gazette.agenda.speakers[3] |
賴士葆 |
| gazette.agenda.speakers[4] |
郭國文 |
| gazette.agenda.speakers[5] |
李彥秀 |
| gazette.agenda.speakers[6] |
賴惠員 |
| gazette.agenda.speakers[7] |
王鴻薇 |
| gazette.agenda.speakers[8] |
伍麗華Saidhai‧Tahovecahe |
| gazette.agenda.speakers[9] |
黃珊珊 |
| gazette.agenda.speakers[10] |
王世堅 |
| gazette.agenda.speakers[11] |
李坤城 |
| gazette.agenda.speakers[12] |
陳玉珍 |
| gazette.agenda.speakers[13] |
顏寬恒 |
| gazette.agenda.speakers[14] |
謝衣鳯 |
| gazette.agenda.speakers[15] |
邱志偉 |
| gazette.agenda.speakers[16] |
洪孟楷 |
| gazette.agenda.speakers[17] |
楊瓊瓔 |
| gazette.agenda.page_start |
129 |
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2024-03-14 |
| gazette.agenda.gazette_id |
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立法院第11屆第1會期財政委員會第3次全體委員會議紀錄 |
| gazette.agenda.content |
邀請中央銀行楊總裁金龍率所屬單位主管暨財金資訊股份有限公司董事長列席業務報告，並備質
詢 |
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謝謝主席 那請我們楊總裁請楊總裁總裁好 你很早總裁這個早上也辛苦了這個我先請教一下我看到你早上的質詢這個大家問的問題也都很多元那這個我們都知道說總裁講話這個 |
| transcript.whisperx[1].start |
26.028 |
| transcript.whisperx[1].end |
51.484 |
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通常具有一錘定音的這個效果啦謝謝謝謝委員因為早上我有看到有其他委員在關心最近很夯的這個ETF然後這個總裁用了一個非常生動的比喻這個就會像這個羊群一樣跳下去然後說怎麼上來就會怎麼樣下去嘛那我相信這個總裁的這一番談話可能會對這個ETF會具有降溫的效果啦我是希望啦 |
| transcript.whisperx[2].start |
55.655 |
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81.956 |
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我是希望是這樣不過跟委員報告就是說金管會也了解也關注到這個議題所以他們也是希望就採一些的降溫的措施所以總裁認為說這個最近這個極端很夯的這個ETF這個太熱了對於這個台灣的這個這個比如說經濟發展不好勒還是說對哪裡不好勒那所以你希望它具有這個降溫的這個效果 |
| transcript.whisperx[3].start |
83.564 |
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98.353 |
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最主要的這個我們應該就是說啦是應該是說是投資人一窩蜂的我看媒體也就是在表達在描述說因為很多對ETF他也都不懂的啊但是因為看到大家都是一直在去買的 |
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99.513 |
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122.141 |
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打電話打到那個什麼那個那個金融機構呢都接的接的就說完所以很顯然的這是一窩蜂的很多都是一窩蜂就像前面頭一樣跳下去的後面不知道就跟著跳下去的意思嗎那就是說他也不曉得ETF是不是他只是說現在呢說我就一直在賬賬賬那現在說大家人的心裡就是說那追賬 |
| transcript.whisperx[5].start |
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他都有一個現象叫追賬那這個就是說不懂得他一直往前衝應該不是說ETF不好因為他也是一種投資的方式就跟基金就跟股票是一樣只是說今天我們總裁給了一個警語就是說現在買ETF太熱 |
| transcript.whisperx[6].start |
145.397 |
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171.732 |
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希望說投資人在投資之前先要先理性先選擇一下應該是這個意思吧是沒有錯也就是說投資人我想最基本的啦我想我也不是非常非常很高竿的那個投資人不是有一個基本的原則就是說你的上車跟下車的時點你必須要你必須要了解不是一窩蜂的人家上車你也跟著上車 |
| transcript.whisperx[7].start |
172.933 |
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173.573 |
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總裁是看好今年台灣的經濟成長 |
| transcript.whisperx[8].start |
194.306 |
| transcript.whisperx[8].end |
220.164 |
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我還是基本上會比去年好。是,比去年好。信心從哪裡來的?這主要就是說我們的出口有復甦。我們出口你看喔,從10月份、10月份、9月份、10月份、11、12、1、2,都是成長的。這個很顯然的,那當然啦,我們的出口成長呢,很大一部分也是跟AI有關係啦。 |
| transcript.whisperx[9].start |
222.466 |
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248.92 |
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但其他的慢慢的在五六月份以後的普遍的應該也會隨著上升所以也就是說我們的出口好我們的投資就會好我們出口好投資好那另外呢我們的消費的這個部分我們消費的部分去年去年我們經濟成長說實在的主要都靠消費那消費呢就是剛好就是我們解封了以後 |
| transcript.whisperx[10].start |
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總裁金龍率所屬單位主管 |
| transcript.whisperx[11].start |
274.62 |
| transcript.whisperx[11].end |
280.476 |
| transcript.whisperx[11].text |
喔對對沒有錯那這個因為我昨天有問主界長主界長說大概如果把這個電價這個 |
| transcript.whisperx[12].start |
283.679 |
| transcript.whisperx[12].end |
306.792 |
| transcript.whisperx[12].text |
這個成長的部分把它計算進去的話大概是2%那2%這個主計長他認為說溫和哇他講了好幾次溫和那總裁呢總裁看法怎麼樣我主計長他講的也沒有錯不過我們是稍微稍微就比較保守一點因為我們原先的我們在12月的時候的預測就是說1.89 |
| transcript.whisperx[13].start |
309.614 |
| transcript.whisperx[13].end |
329.268 |
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那1089如果說剛看到就是說我們的這個電價要上漲的這個方案我們如果說把它計算進去還有考慮到其他的那這個也要漲那個也要漲那還有考慮到就是說通膨逸期的心理的話也許我們會超過2% |
| transcript.whisperx[14].start |
331.53 |
| transcript.whisperx[14].end |
336.997 |
| transcript.whisperx[14].text |
但是這個就是說我們下個禮拜四我們的李監事會來很謹慎的來討論這個議題那這個相信總裁也會相當關心美國的這個聯準會他們會不會降息 |
| transcript.whisperx[15].start |
349.973 |
| transcript.whisperx[15].end |
369.032 |
| transcript.whisperx[15].text |
這個呢也就是說市場目前都一直覺得美國是在6月以後會降息會降息但是呢你認為他們會降息的原因在哪裡?他們通膨有控制住了嗎?他們經濟成長達到預期了嗎?這是市場的預期不過呢那總裁的看法勒? |
| transcript.whisperx[16].start |
369.672 |
| transcript.whisperx[16].end |
381.021 |
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我比較相信總裁的看法對,廢的還是很謹慎因為中央銀行畢竟對中央銀行的想法會比較接近我們對中央銀行在了解中央銀行的想法會比較接近一點我們認為廢的還是非常謹慎的跟你一樣的謹慎一樣的謹慎所以6月之後會降息嗎? |
| transcript.whisperx[17].start |
397.733 |
| transcript.whisperx[17].end |
414.392 |
| transcript.whisperx[17].text |
因為美國他是說如果那他還是有條件的如果說他一期就是說他的通膨有到下降到2%左右有下降來然後呢他的經濟呢也能夠就是說 |
| transcript.whisperx[18].start |
418.856 |
| transcript.whisperx[18].end |
447.367 |
| transcript.whisperx[18].text |
這也是有韌性的但是通膨有下來那他也是很希望因為市場都認為75%會軟著陸那這樣的話他就認為這個就符合他的標準但是什麼時候會符合這個標準Fed他也不敢說大家抓準6月之前不會改變但6月之後有可能那台灣呢因為我們的這個利率通常會跟著美國走吧 |
| transcript.whisperx[19].start |
448.768 |
| transcript.whisperx[19].end |
451.75 |
| transcript.whisperx[19].text |
基本上我們跟美國不太一樣的地方就是說美國是通膨的很高然後他就提高利率 |
| transcript.whisperx[20].start |
470.367 |
| transcript.whisperx[20].end |
490.179 |
| transcript.whisperx[20].text |
對對對對對對對對對對對對對對對對對對對對對對對對對對對對對對對對對對對對對對對對對對對對對對對 |
| transcript.whisperx[21].start |
490.299 |
| transcript.whisperx[21].end |
504.697 |
| transcript.whisperx[21].text |
那我那時候說如果通膨大概就是兩趴現在大概是主流的看法啦主界長大概還有國科委主委國發委主委他們大概都是認為是兩趴啦那如果在兩趴主流的情況之下那在這個條件的情況之下那總裁方便講嗎 |
| transcript.whisperx[22].start |
505.518 |
| transcript.whisperx[22].end |
518.904 |
| transcript.whisperx[22].text |
我我我我我我第一個我會說我們會很謹慎第二個呢我們除了就是說電價的這個電價的這個的調升以外會對CPI的影響以外我們還有 |
| transcript.whisperx[23].start |
523.446 |
| transcript.whisperx[23].end |
550.544 |
| transcript.whisperx[23].text |
要注意的就是說是通膨預期的心理因為如果說大家都在講通膨通膨他就會自我實現喔所以就是說大家不要有這個預期的心理就是說啊會通膨然後結果這個預期的心理就真的發生了這當然這也是有可能只是說因為總裁之前有提到說對於台灣的經濟成長是看好的啦那我只是想說如果這個利率齁 |
| transcript.whisperx[24].start |
551.524 |
| transcript.whisperx[24].end |
576.986 |
| transcript.whisperx[24].text |
這個不這樣反省的話不曉得會不會對於經濟造成成長會造成影響基本上我說我們台灣的經濟他受到external受到外部的影響比較大我們本身的這個影響比較少外面的就是說你的出口好的話基本上我們就跟誠如我剛剛所說我們的出口好 |
| transcript.whisperx[25].start |
578.247 |
| transcript.whisperx[25].end |
591.921 |
| transcript.whisperx[25].text |
我們的出口好我們的投資就會好那我們的消費水準也會維持一定的水準那政府的支出呢也有成長那在這種情況之下好像就是說你經濟是會往上推的 |
| transcript.whisperx[26].start |
595.264 |
| transcript.whisperx[26].end |
619.876 |
| transcript.whisperx[26].text |
其實時間不多我還有一題想問的就是這個央行有打算要發行那個數位貨幣我們是還是在研議當中中國的這個人民銀行他們是不是有發行他們事典他們是先要講說是事典事典也不是正式發行他只是事典而已但是沒有正式發行 |
| transcript.whisperx[27].start |
621.096 |
| transcript.whisperx[27].end |
621.237 |
| transcript.whisperx[27].text |
謝謝總裁 謝謝主席 |
| transcript.whisperx[28].start |
649.639 |
| transcript.whisperx[28].end |
651.311 |
| transcript.whisperx[28].text |
接著請陳玉珍陳委員質詢 |